The NBA conference finals highlights the weekend ratings forecast. Also on tap, the Preakness Stakes, NHL conference finals, baseball’s Game of the Week and NASCAR’s All-Star Race.
First, the Results of Last Week’s Predictions
— NBA West Finals: Spurs-Warriors Game 1. Prediction: 5.1; final rating: 4.6.
— NHL East Final: Senators-Penguins Game 1. Prediction: 1.1; final rating: 1.65.
— PGA Tour: final rd. of The Players. Prediction: 2.6; final rating: 2.3.
— NASCAR Cup Series: Kansas. Prediction: 1.8; final rating: 1.55.
— WNBA regular season: Seattle-L.A. Prediction: 0.3; final rating: 0.2.
— MLB Sunday Night Baseball: Astros-Yankees. Prediction: 1.2; final rating: 1.2.
This Week’s Predictions (All Times ET)
NBA Eastern Conference Finals: Celtics-Cavs Game 3 (8:30 PM Sun, TNT)
- Even if the Celtics get up off the mat and make things competitive, the viewing public has almost certainly written them off after a pair of blowout losses at home – including a 44-point drubbing Friday night. It goes without saying that Sunday’s Game 3 ratings will improve over Cavaliers-Raptors last year, which aired on a Saturday night and featured a Canadian team (3.3), but do not expect much of an increase. Ratings should fall well short of Hawks-Cavaliers two years ago (4.7). Prediction: 3.8.
NBA Western Conference Finals: Warriors-Spurs Game 3 (9 PM Sat, ESPN)
- Spurs-Warriors was shaping up as an intriguing series until Zaza Pachulia stepped in. The journeyman’s conveniently-placed foot took out Kawhi Leonard and turned the Western Conference Finals into a mismatch. Tuesday’s Game 2 had a 3.5 rating, the lowest for any WCF game since the ratings kryptonite Spurs-Grizzlies series four years ago. With a three-day break, a Saturday night timeslot, and the series appearing to be a foregone conclusion, expect even lower numbers for Game 3. Prediction: 3.4.
Horse racing: Preakness Stakes (6:30 PM Sat, NBC)
- The Preakness Stakes is no match for the Kentucky Derby (or the Belmont in years when a Triple Crown is at stake), but still puts up strong numbers. Last year, its 5.8 rating topped the charts on a weekend that included the NBA and NHL conference finals. Expect more of the same this year. Ratings have hovered around 5.8-6.0 in three of the past four years (2015 was the exception with a 5.5). Prediction: 5.9.
NHL West Final: Ducks-Predators Game 5 (7:15 PM Sat, NBC)
- Ducks-Predators sounds like a ratings disaster on paper and certainly looked the part after Game 1 plunged 44 percent. Ratings have held up well since, with Game 2 up 14% and Game 3 flat (Game 4 was down big on NBCSN, but last year’s comparable telecast aired on NBC). Ratings will definitely rise for Game 5, which last year aired on NBCSN and had a 0.8 rating. The real question is whether the numbers will exceed last year’s 1.4 for Sharks-Blues Game 4, which had the post-Preakness slot on NBC. Prediction: 1.5.
MLB: Mostly Angels-Mets (45%) or Giants-Cardinals (37%) (7 PM Sat, FOX)
- For as well as baseball has done in the ratings recently, the Game of the Week is still as diminished as ever. It has been nearly four years since FOX cracked a 2.0 rating for regular season baseball, and that streak is unlikely to end anytime soon. The first FOX telecast of the season — Yankees-Cubs in a battle of baseball’s biggest draws — netted only a 1.4. This week’s uninspiring slate could drop even lower. Prediction: 1.3.
NASCAR All-Star Race (6 PM Sat, FS1)
- No reason to believe that NASCAR’s All-Star Race will stop the sport’s season-long slide. Last year’s telecast had a 2.0 rating, the lowest since at least 1999. Expect this year’s edition to dip even lower. Prediction: 1.8.
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