The NBA’s Western Conference Finals highlights this weekend’s ratings forecast. Also on tap, the NHL’s East final, The Players Championship, NASCAR, the WNBA and baseball.
First, the Results of Last Week’s Predictions
— Kentucky Derby: race portion. Prediction: 8.8; final rating: 9.3.
— Stanley Cup Playoffs: Penguins-Capitals Game 5. Prediction: 2.2; final rating: 2.4.
— NBA Playoffs: Warriors-Jazz Game 3. Prediction: 3.7; final rating: 3.6.
— NBA Playoffs: Cavs-Raptors Game 4. Prediction: 2.9; final rating: 3.2.
— MLB: Yankees-Cubs. Predictions: 1.9 (FOX) and 1.8 (ESPN); final ratings: 1.3 and 1.5.
— NASCAR Cup Series: Talladega. Prediction: 3.8; final rating: 3.5.
This Week’s Predictions (All Times ET)
NBA West Finals: Spurs-Warriors Game 1 (3:30 PM Sun ABC)
- Given a choice between a Game 7 and a Game 1 involving the Warriors, ABC will take the latter every time. Golden State-San Antonio was a highly-anticipated matchup last season, but never came to fruition. Though less anticipated this year, the matchup of the last four Western Conference champions should still draw strong numbers. Last year’s Thunder-Warriors opener had a 5.3 rating on TNT; the last conference final opener on ABC (Heat-Pacers in 2014) had a 4.9. Prediction: 5.1.
NHL East Final: Senators-Penguins Game 1 (7:15 PM Sat NBC)
- For the fifth straight week, the Stanley Cup Playoffs gets primetime exposure on NBC. Unlike last week, when Penguins-Capitals scored a relatively strong 2.4 rating, this week’s game figures to be a ratings dud. The presence of the Senators and lack of a compelling lead-in (third round golf rather than the Kentucky Derby) could result in historically low numbers. Currently, the lowest rating for a primetime playoff game on broadcast TV is a 0.9 for Predators-Blackhawks earlier in the playoffs. No other game has dipped below a 1.3. Prediction: 1.1.
PGA Tour: final round of The Players (2 PM Sun NBC)
- If golf’s first major could not slow its ratings slump, do not expect the ‘fifth major’ to stem the tide. Last year’s final round had a 2.8 rating — not bad, but the second-lowest in at least 20 years. Expect lower numbers this time around, though ratings should stay above the 20-year low of 2.1 in 2014. Prediction: 2.6.
NASCAR Cup Series: Kansas (7:30 PM Sat FS1)
- Having opened its season with two months of declining ratings, NASCAR now enters the weak part of its schedule — a series of low-wattage races, mostly on cable, between now and Daytona on July 4 weekend. The good news is that most of the upcoming races have set a low bar, with ratings in the low-to-mid 2.0s. Kansas may be the weakest performer of the bunch, turning in a 1.9 rating last year and a 1.6 for rain-delayed coverage in 2015. It would not take much for NASCAR to get its first increase of the season, but the sport’s slump may be too much to overcome. Prediction: 1.8.
WNBA regular season: Seattle-Los Angeles (5 PM Sat ESPN)
- The WNBA opener has gotten more promotion than usual on the NBA’s TV partners in recent days, and the league has launched a new ad campaign in which NBA stars state their admiration for players in the league. Whether that will get NBA viewers to watch Saturday’s season opener on a playoff off day remains to be seen. Last year’s opener had a 0.3 rating in a later timeslot. Prediction: 0.3.
MLB Sunday Night Baseball: Astros-Yankees (7:30 PM Sun ESPN)
- Sunday Night Baseball ratings are up a tick through last week, with four of five games posting increases over last year (not counting Marlins-Mets on April 9, for which no comparison was available). With Derek Jeter getting his jersey retired, the Yankees and Astros owning two of the best records in baseball, and zero NBA competition, expect ESPN to make it five of six. Prediction: 1.2.
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