With the NBA Finals off to its best start since 1998 despite a pair of routs, here is a look at how the lopsided margins have affected the Nielsens, if at all.
Game 1 of the NBA Finals opened with a 7.9 rating and 13.7 million viewers in the first quarter-hour last Thursday, off 2% in ratings but up 4% in viewership from last year (8.1, 13.2M). Viewership was trending up through halftime, rising 3-7% each quarter-hour through 10:30 PM ET, and the game peaked in the first half from 10-10:15 (11.7, 21.2M).
After halftime, viewership sank progressively from last year — falling 2% from 10:30-10:45, 7% from 10:45-11, 9% from 11-11:15 and 12% from 11:15-11:30. The game ended with an 8.8 and 15.6 million from 11:30 to the conclusion — down 21% and 20% respectively from the same time period last year (11.1, 19.5M).
Based on the first half performance, it seems likely that a closer game would have surpassed last year as the most-watched Game 1 since 1998. The blowout had about the kind of impact one would expect.
Game 2 was a different story. Every quarter-hour of the game increased over last year, particularly during the second half. Viewership increased 3-11% in each quarter-hour through halftime, but soared 11-42% afterward.
While this year’s Game 2 was technically closer than last year’s 33-point rout, the games shared similarities. The Cavaliers were within four with 5:28 to go in the third, but the game was nearly as tight last year — a nine-point margin with 6:51 left. They trailed by 14 at the end of the third this year and by 20 last year. A key difference is when the teams pulled their starters. The Cavaliers’ starters stayed in the game until the 3:47 mark of the fourth and the Warriors’ starters, for whatever reason, stayed in until the 3:09 mark. Last year, LeBron James did not play in the fourth quarter at all and Stephen Curry hit the bench with 7:08 to go.
It might be the case for the NBA that as blowouts become the rule, the real impact on ratings will be when the losing team concedes.
Given the final results were the same in Games 1 and 2 — Golden State won by about 20 — why would six million more viewers stick around for the end of Sunday’s game? The teams pulled their starters around the same time in Game 1 and Game 2, so that could not have been the factor. Perhaps the 8 PM ET start was the culprit. While there is plenty of evidence showing that later start times are better for ratings, viewers may have been more willing to watch garbage time at 10:30 than 11:30.
[Numbers from ESPN]
