Weekend Ratings Predictions: Divisional Round & More

NFL playoff ratings declined across the board on Wild Card weekend, with all four games hitting multi-year lows. The downward trend should continue into this week’s Divisional Round. The NFC South, for its on-field excellence, just does not rate that well. The AFC South has little excellence and does not rate at all. Yet those divisions produced all four of last week’s Wild Card winners, creating four fairly forgettable matchups this weekend.

First on the docket, the defending NFC Champion Falcons face the hobbled Eagles. Philadelphia was one of the better stories of the NFL regular season, right until Carson Wentz tore his ACL. It is easy to get excited about a team with a star young quarterback, far less so for one led by Nick Foles. Atlanta has been in front of NFL fans’ faces for most of the past year and has yet to make an impression. The team’s win over the Rams last Saturday was the lowest rated primetime Wild Card game ever. Expect weak numbers. Seahawks-Falcons had a 16.2 in the same timeslot last year, and that was the lowest rating in the window since 2010. Prediction: 14.5.

In primetime, the Patriots start their playoff run against the surprising Titans. Bill Belichick can talk up Tennessee as much as he wants, but it is unlikely many viewers will buy his glowing assessment. New England is favored by two touchdowns. Do people hate the Patriots enough to stay home on a Saturday night and watch what could be a blowout of a mostly anonymous team? Unless Tennessee pulls a shocker, expect ratings to sink below last year’s 16.0 for Texans-Patriots, which was the lowest in the window since 2009. Prediction: 14.8.

On Sunday, CBS leads off with Jaguars-Steelers (1 PM). Jacksonville did not endear itself to the national audience with last week’s ugly win over Buffalo, but a defensive struggle might be an easier sell against higher-profile Pittsburgh. Even so, a multi-year low seems in the cards. The last Divisional game in the early Sunday window, Seahawks-Panthers in 2016, had a 21.1 rating (last year’s 1 PM game was rescheduled to primetime, earning a 19.8). The window has scored at least an 18.3 in every year since 2002. In this environment, can a game featuring a defensive-minded Jaguars team reach those heights? Prediction: 17.6.

Wrapping up the weekend, FOX has Saints-Vikings. This matchup may have been more intriguing had New Orleans not traded Adrian Peterson earlier in the season, but as it is, it figures to be the highest-quality game of the weekend. Whether that will be enough to overcome the NFL’s downward trajectory is another story. It is certainly no shame to decline from last year’s 26.1 for Packers-Cowboys, the highest Divisional Round rating since 1997. However, expect ratings to also fall from 2016, 2015, and every other year in recent memory. The late Sunday Divisional window has topped a 20 rating in every year since 2009 and a 19 in every year since 2001. Prediction: 18.9.

The Cavaliers’ annual January swoon is particularly pronounced this season, with LeBron James and company losing by 28 on Monday and 34 on Thursday, and blowing a 22-point lead on Friday. James may have eternal bragging rights over Golden State for that 3-1 comeback over a 73-win team with the unanimous MVP in 2016, but the Warriors have otherwise thrashed the Cavs with near-impunity — especially on Martin Luther King Day. Expect another sound beating this time around, though it should not hurt the ratings too badly. Golden State’s 35 point win last year had a 2.6 rating, up from a 2.3 for a 34-point win the previous year. Prediction: 2.5.

For the second straight week, college football gets a direct NFL lead-in. Last week, the NFL boosted Michigan State-Ohio State to a 2.1 rating, the highest of the season on any network. Northwestern-Indiana will probably not rate that high, given neither team is ranked (MSU was #1 last week). Even so, expect one of the highest ratings of the season. The current #2 is a 1.8 for Duke-Michigan State in the Champions Classic. Prediction: 1.9.

The NHL returns to NBC with Red Wings-Blackhawks Sunday afternoon. Ratings dropped for NBC’s previous broadcasts, the Thanksgiving Showdown (0.8, -11%) and Winter Classic (1.4, -6%). The Detroit-Chicago rivalry has traditionally been one of the NHL’s stronger draws, and both teams are in the playoff hunt. Ratings should increase over last year’s 0.8 for a Flyers-Capitals game that was added at the last minute. Prediction: 1.0.