Predicting the final weekend of Winter Olympics ratings. Also on tap, Tiger Woods in the Honda Classic, the latest chapter of the Warriors-Thunder rivalry, NASCAR and the EPL.
Last week’s results at the bottom of the page. All times Eastern.
Winter Olympics (8 PM Sat & Sun NBC)
PYEONGCHANG, Feb. 24, 2018 Nana Takagi (1st R) of Japan crosses finishing line of ladies’ mass start event of speed skating at the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympic Games at Gangneung Oval, PyeongChang, Feb. 24, 2018. Nana Takagi claimed gold medal with 60 points (Photo by Xinhua/Zuma Press/Icon Sportswire)
Entering the final night of competition, primetime Winter Olympics ratings are on pace to set a new record low. Across NBC, NBCSN and streaming, the first 15 nights averaged a combined 11.7 rating — a full point below the all-time lows set in 2006 (12.7) and 9 percent lower than four years ago (12.8). Compared to the rest of TV, the numbers are not that bad and the declines not that steep. Even so, a record-low is a record-low.
The final nights of any Olympics are typically the lowest rated, particularly in the Winter Games. In 2014, the final Saturday had a 7.8 rating, the lowest for any primetime Olympic telecast on record. That was followed by the lowest rated Closing Ceremony ever (8.7). Given the downward trend for this year’s Olympics, even lower numbers seem likely this weekend. Expect what will be the lowest rated primetime Olympics ever to conclude with a pair of record-lows. Predictions: 7.0 and 7.6.
Olympic Men’s Hockey Final (10:30 PM Sat NBCSN)
Eight years ago, the Olympic men’s hockey final had a 15.2 rating, by far the biggest for any hockey game since 1980. That game pit the U.S. against Canada in a thriller featuring the NHL’s biggest stars. Eight years later, the U.S., Canada and the stars are gone, the result of NHL owners’ decision to prevent players from competing in the Games. Do not expect much out of Saturday’s gold medal game between Germany and a team of Russians. The 2014 final (Canada-Sweden) had a 2.5 rating. That game aired on NBC in an early morning window. Prediction: 1.1.
PGA Honda Classic, Final Round (3 PM Sun CBS)
You can be forgiven for reading “Tiger in the hunt” and assuming the year was 2013. It has been that long since Tiger Woods won any tournament, and he is unlikely to win this weekend’s Honda Classic (airing on CBS rather than usual broadcaster NBC due to the Olympics). With that said, he is in line for a top ten finish, entering Sunday’s final round tied for 11th. Woods already helped Torrey Pines ratings hit a five-year high last month, and he tied for 23rd. Expect at least a four-year high for the Honda Classic; the final round had a 2.6 rating in 2014, Woods’ previous appearance in the event. Prediction: 2.4.
NBA: Thunder-Warriors (8 PM Sat ABC)
The Warriors-Thunder rivalry has been a good draw for ABC, generating the network’s two highest regular season ratings in the past five years (not counting Christmas). Last year’s game, which marked Kevin Durant‘s return to Oklahoma City, had a 3.4 rating. The previous year’s matchup, an overtime thriller, had a 3.2. Oklahoma City’s two blowout wins over Golden State this season have turned what was once an individual beef into an actual rivalry, giving Saturday’s game a little more meaning than usual. Even so, given the Olympic competition, expect ratings to fall below the past two years. Prediction: 2.9.
NASCAR Cup Series: Atlanta (1 PM Sun FOX)
Coming off a record-low Daytona 500, set expectations low for this week’s NASCAR race from Atlanta. With rain in the forecast, the green flag has been moved up by an hour. That should actually help the race avoid the Olympics, assuming its actually run, but will probably not be enough to keep the ratings afloat. Last year’s race had a 3.8 rating, the lowest for NASCAR’s second race of the season since at least 1998. Prediction: 3.3.
Premier League: Man. U.-Chelsea (9:05 AM Sun NBCSN)
NBCSN eases back into non-Olympic programming with a marquee Premier League matchup Sunday. Of all the EPL clubs, Manchester United and Chelsea have arguably the greatest name recognition in the U.S. — and not surprisingly, their head-to-head matchups draw well. Last year’s matches delivered ratings of 0.37 and 0.48 on NBCSN, not bad for morning English soccer on cable. Expect similar results this weekend. Prediction: 0.44.
Jon Lewis has been covering the sports media industry on a daily basis since 2006 as the founder and main writer of Sports Media Watch. You can contact him here or on the social media websites X (Twitter) or Bluesky.
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