Ratings Predictions: Championship Week, Tiger & More

For the first time since 1981, the NCAA Tournament Selection Show will not air on CBS. TBS has rights to broadcast the event in years when it carries the Final Four and National Championship and chose to do so for the first time.

It goes without saying that Selection Show ratings will decline, and not just because the show is moving down the dial from broadcast to cable. Selection Show ratings always decline. Ratings have increased just three times since the turn of the century — 2004 (+9%), 2009 (+10%) and 2013 (+17%) — and have dropped in four straight years. Last year’s 3.0 was an all-time low. There is little that can be done to turn things around; delaying the release of the brackets to keep viewers glued to the screen led to major backlash in 2016 (and did not help the ratings). Once the brackets come out, there is little reason for casual fans to remain tuned in.

Given the overall popularity of the tournament, do not expect CBS and Turner to sweat what will surely be another all-time low. Prediction: 2.2.

For the second straight year, Duke and North Carolina meet for an ACC Tournament rubber match. Duke-UNC ratings declined this season, with both matchups off 17 percent from last year. The games faced tough competition — the Olympics in February and then a marquee NBA game last weekend. There is no significant competition on Friday night, and the ACC Tournament is coming off of its most-watched quarterfinal round ever. Look for an increase over last year’s 1.8. Prediction: 1.9.

With the Big East a shell of itself and the Big Ten moving its title game up a week, the ACC title game is the crown jewel of Championship Week. The game had a 2.0 rating last year, the third-highest in at least a decade. With a matchup of Duke or UNC against #1 Virginia, expect that rating to rise — perhaps significantly. No matter what, it will almost certainly be the highest rated game of the week. Prediction: 2.5.

The Big East Tournament is not what it used to be since the conference split in two and rights moved from ESPN to Fox Sports. That is borne out by the ratings, which have yet to hit the 1.0 mark in the four years since the ‘new Big East’ formed. In the last year of the original Big East, the championship had a 2.1 rating on ESPN. Last year’s final had a 0.7 rating on FOX, and there is no reason to believe this year’s rating will be any different. Prediction: 0.6.

With the Big Ten Tournament moved up a week, the American Athletic Conference gets what has been a marquee timeslot — the final window leading into the Selection Show. The timeslot is not as cushy as usual this year, with the Selection Show airing on TBS rather than CBS. Even so, ratings should rise double-digits from last year’s low bar of 1.1. On the other hand, ratings will fall well short of last year’s Big Ten title game in the same window, which had a 2.2. Prediction: 1.5.

Tiger Woods’ presence is always a good thing for PGA Tour ratings, but there are levels. Level 1 is his mere presence. Woods is making his debut at the PGA’s Tampa Bay stop, which is enough to boost the event past last year. Level 2 is basic competence. If Woods makes the cut and plays a few decent rounds, that is enough to generate healthy increases and multi-year highs.

Level 3 has not been seen in some time, and that is legitimate contention. Woods enters the weekend in a tie for second, having briefly led Friday. The last time Woods played so well at a PGA-sanctioned event was the 2015 Wyndham Championship, when he entered Sunday in a tie for second. Ratings for that tournament soared 187 percent on Saturday and 159 percent on Sunday, with the latter hitting a 22-year high. In other words, have high expectations for this weekend’s action. Last year’s coverage had a 1.1 rating on Saturday and a 1.5 on Sunday. Predictions: 2.1 and 3.0.

With ABC’s games fairly uninteresting, ESPN has the marquee NBA game of the weekend. There is plenty of intrigue surrounding the Cavaliers-Lakers matchup. The primary storyline is whether LeBron James will join the Lakers in the offseason, but a worthy ‘B’ plot is Isaiah Thomas facing the team that dumped him after 15 ugly games. Given what should be a good lead-in from ESPN’s “Bracketology” special, expect a solid rating. In the same window last year, Cavaliers-Rockets had a 1.5 rating. Prediction: 1.7.

After an ugly 2017 season, NASCAR has begun 2018 on pace for an even worse year. The first three races of this season have declined double-digits (two faced the Olympics), with both Daytona and Las Vegas hitting record lows. Do not expect any relief at Phoenix, which seems likely to set a all-time low of its own. Last year’s 3.3 rating is the current all-time low, and there is no reason to believe this year’s rating will increase, or even hold steady. Prediction: 2.7.