Predicting Cavs-Warriors ratings and more, including Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final, Tiger Woods’ latest tournament and the U.S. Women’s Open.
All times Eastern. Last week’s results at the bottom of the page.
NBA FINALS: CAVS-WARRIORS GAME 2 (8 PM SUN ABC)
Game 1 of the NBA Finals had everything ABC could have asked for. Defying all expectations, Cleveland not only kept pace with Golden State, but by all accounts should have won. LeBron James had 51 points. There was a wild regulation finish, an overtime, and the typical tough guy posturing that is the hallmark of Draymond Green. The only thing missing? Try 1.4 million viewers.
One of the few dramatic games in what has been a lopsided Cavs-Warriors rivalry — even Cleveland’s win in 2016 was marked by blowouts on both sides — managed a strong yet ultimately disappointing 10.0 rating and 17.4 million viewers. Prior to 2015, those would have been spectacular results for Game 1 of the finals. Today, they represent four-year lows — off by five tenths and 1.4 million viewers, respectively, from last year’s opener. Imagine if the game had been the usual Golden State rout.
ABC better hope that Game 1 was not Cleveland’s best — and last — shot of making this series interesting. In 2015, the Cavaliers had an even more devastating Game 1 overtime loss, with Kyrie Irving going down to injury in the process. A sweep seemed likely, but James and his mighty cast of Matthew Dellavadova and Timofey Mozgov somehow managed to take the next two games. This time around, the Cavaliers enter Game 2 whole, but surely demoralized. If they can somehow repeat Game 1’s performance without fumbling it away, this series could still meet the standard of the past three years. Not likely. Expect a Game 2 rout and a drop from last year’s 10.7. Prediction: 10.0.
STANLEY CUP FINAL: GOLDEN KNIGHTS-CAPITALS GAME 3 (8 PM SAT NBCSN)
The Golden Knights-Capitals matchup is clearly resonating with viewers, but thus far one can argue that the Stanley Cup Final has yet to live up to its potential. Game 1 aired opposite an NBA Game 7 and Game 3 is the second straight on NBCSN. That is no way to build an audience. It will not be until Game 4 before there is a true gauge of how strong this series can be. Even with the weak schedule, Games 1 and 2 both hit three-year highs — and there is no reason to expect anything different for Saturday’s Game 3. Last year’s Game 3 had a 1.6. Prediction: 1.9.
PGA TOUR: THE MEMORIAL FINAL ROUND (2:30 PM SUN CBS)
Tiger Woods‘ comeback tour continues with his first appearance at the Memorial since 2015. Woods has played 14 rounds on broadcast television this season, and all 14 have posted a double — or triple — digit increase in ratings. Most recently, his Sunday surge at last month’s Players Championship fueled a 57 percent jump on NBC. He enters the weekend in a tie for 24th, six shots off the lead. With PGA ratings softening up the past two weeks — the past three rounds on CBS have hit multi-year lows — there is no better time for the Tiger bump. Last year’s final round, which aired on tape delay, had a 1.9 rating. When Woods last played the tournament in 2015, final round coverage had a 2.3. Prediction: 2.8.
U.S. WOMEN’S OPEN: FINAL ROUND (2 PM SUN FOX)
The U.S. Women’s Open gets an earlier spot on the calendar this year, moving up six weeks from mid-July to early June. Do not expect that to improve the tournament’s fading fortunes. Last year’s tournament ended with the lowest final round on record (dating back 30 years), with the three lowest rated coming just in the past five years. Airing opposite a prominent PGA Tour event with Tiger Woods in the field, do not expect ratings to bounce back much, if at all, this year. Prediction: 0.7.
INDYCAR: DUEL IN DETROIT (3:30 PM SAT & SUN ABC)
ESPN/ABC ends its relationship with the IndyCar Series with this weekend’s Duel in Detroit. Indy 500 ratings were a bust, falling to a record-low 3.1 despite the Danica Patrick racing in her final event. Even so, ABC has an opportunity to end its IndyCar run on a decent note. Last year’s Duel set a low bar with a 0.6 rating on both days. Prediction: 0.6 and 0.7.
FRENCH OPEN THIRD ROUND (NOON SAT NBC)
Serena Williams is two matches into her first Grand Slam in more than a year, but it will not be until Saturday that most of the country gets to watch her play. Williams’ first two matches were on Tennis Channel, which is in just 53.4 million homes. Her match Saturday will air on NBC, even if on tape delay. Expect Williams’ drawing power to give NBC a lift. The same window pulled a 0.6 rating last year and a 0.7 in 2016. Prediction: 0.8.
LAST WEEK’S PREDICTIONS
— NBA: Cavs-Celtics Game 7. Prediction: 8.2; result: 7.3
— NBA: Rockets-Warriors Game 6. Prediction: 5.3; result: 5.4
— NHL: Capitals-Golden Knights Game 1. Prediction: 2.5; result: 2.9
— Indianapolis 500. Prediction: 3.7; result: 3.1
— NASCAR Charlotte 600. Prediction: 2.2; result: 2.3
— F1 Monaco GP (ESPN). Prediction: 0.6; result: 0.5
— UEFA Champions League Final. Prediction: 1.1; result: 1.2
— MLB: Mostly Angels-Yankees (FOX). Prediction: 1.3; result: 1.6
