Ratings Predictions: NFL Thanksgiving Games & More

NFL ratings have been on the rebound in 2018, aided primarily by a more compelling on-field product, but also by the low bar set last year. A year ago, all three of the league’s Thanksgiving games hit multi-year lows, including the lowest rated Lions game since 2009, Cowboys game since 2008, and primetime game since 2011. It would not take much for this year’s games to do better, especially given what looks to be a strong schedule.

Bears-Lions (12:30p CBS). The Bears’ resurgence has not yet translated into higher ratings, with Chicago’s three national games this season each declining. A caveat: two of last year’s three comparable games featured the Cowboys. Even so, there is no tangible evidence to back up the conventional wisdom that a good Bears team is good for the NFL. Will that change Thursday? Last year’s comparable Vikings-Lions game had an 11.4 rating, the highest of the day. That was a matchup of the top two teams in the NFC North. This time around, Chicago leads the North, but Detroit is in the cellar. Prediction: 11.1.

Washington-Dallas (4:30p FOX). When Washington and Dallas last met on Thanksgiving two years ago, the game had a 14.5 rating — the NFL’s highest rating on the holiday since 2011. The Cowboys won their 10th straight game that day, reaching an NFL-leading 10-1 record. Dallas is 5-5 this time around, but second in the middling NFC East. With Washington’s hold on the division tenuous after QB Alex Smith’s gruesome injury last week, this year’s game has major playoff implications. Ratings are unlikely to come close to 2016, but expect a solid bump over last year’s 11.1 for Chargers-Cowboys. Prediction: 12.3.

Falcons-Saints (8:20p NBC). The Saints’ dominating play this season has become one of the NFL’s top storylines. As with Alabama or Clemson in the college game, that domination can take a toll on the TV ratings. New Orleans’ rout of Philadelphia last Sunday was the lowest rated Week 11 NFL national window since at least 2000. Luckily for NBC, last year’s Giants-Washington game did so poorly (8.2) that even a blowout has a good shot at a double-digit increase. Prediction: 9.7.

For just the second time since their “Game of the Century” in 2006, Michigan and Ohio State are both in the top ten entering their annual rivalry game. Two years ago, when the teams were ranked #3 and #2 respectively, their double-overtime thriller scored a 9.4 rating on ABC. This year’s game will be hard-pressed to meet that historically-high bar, but it should still deliver a massive number nonetheless. Ratings should comfortably surpass last year, when Ohio State was #9 and Michigan unranked. Excluding bowls, the highest college football rating ever on FOX was a 7.9 for the 2013 Big Ten Championship Game (Ohio State-Michigan State). Prediction: 7.4.

Last year’s Iron Bowl was a matchup of the #1 and #6 teams in the country. Alabama is still #1, but Auburn is unranked entering what is expected to be another Crimson Tide rout (Alabama is a 24-point favorite). Assuming the game is as lopsided as expected, ratings should sink from last year’s 7.6. The 2016 Iron Bowl had a 4.5. Prediction: 4.7.

ABC is hoping for a repeat of 2012 this Saturday, as Notre Dame tries to clinch a College Football Playoff berth against rival USC. When Notre Dame beat the Trojans to clinch a berth in the BCS Championship Game six years ago, the game had a whopping 9.4 rating. The stakes are lower this time around, since a win merely means a trip to the semifinals, but Saturday’s game should still do well. The last time Notre Dame-USC aired on ABC, 2016, it had a 3.4 rating in the afternoon. Prediction: 4.9.

Had West Virginia not lost last weekend, their matchup against Oklahoma on Friday would have been one of the most important games of the season. Even so, it remains a top 25 matchup with playoff implications. Expect ratings to double last year’s Virginia Tech-Virginia game (1.3). Prediction: 2.6.

Television exposure is perhaps no more important than in the Pac-12, where teams play the majority of their games after 10 PM ET. Playoff contender Washington State has played just four games on Nielsen rated networks this season, two of those before late night. The top rating so far? A 1.6 for their 7:30 PM ET win over Oregon last month. Friday’s Apple Cup should comfortably top that mark, though it may not be able to reach last year’s comparable 2.1 for Texas Tech-Texas. Prediction: 1.9.

A $9 million match between Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson could have done a solid number on linear TV, given the lack of competition Friday afternoon. Instead, it airs on pay-per-view for $20. Woods has proved time and time again that he is the single biggest individual draw in sports, but can he really compel viewers to spend $20 on a meaningless curiosity? It is hard to gauge exactly what is expected of this event, but it is hard to imagine that it will generate the million-plus buys that are typical of the bigger boxing or mixed martial arts events. Prediction: 500K buys.