Ratings Predictions: Masters, Playoffs and More

CBS could not have asked for a better leaderboard entering Masters weekend. First and foremost, Tiger Woods is just a shot off the lead in a tie for sixth place. Phil Mickelson is not far behind, three shots back in a tie for twelfth. A whopping five major winners are tied for first, including Brooks Koepka and Jason Day, with several more lurking in contention. It stands to reason that ratings should be exceptional.

There are no guarantees in the ratings business, and Thursday’s opening round of the tournament declined double-digits on ESPN. There are no guarantees in golf either; for all anyone knows Woods could drop out of contention on Saturday.

Having said that, if the next two days of play are anything like Friday, and if the weather does not intervene (there is a strong chance of bad weather on Sunday), expect one of the stronger Masters weekends in recent memory. Last year, the third round had a 5.3 rating and the final round a 7.9 — both up double-digits to multi-year highs, but nothing spectacular. Since 2011, the Masters has topped out at a 5.8 on Saturday and a 9.4 on Sunday. Prediction: 5.9 and 8.9.

There are quite a few headwinds facing this year’s NBA Playoffs. Chief among them is the absence of LeBron James, who after making eight straight NBA Finals has missed the playoffs for the first time since 2005. James’ Cavaliers were a strong draw in last year’s postseason, particularly in their seven-game matchups with Indiana and Boston. It is hard to imagine this year’s Eastern Conference playoffs measuring up, especially given matchups that are not exactly TV-friendly.

Not helping matters is the NBA’s lack of momentum this season. Regular season viewership was flat on ESPN/ABC and down double-digits on TNT, and that was with James’ Lakers doing a lot of the heavy lifting. There is no reason to believe the numbers will turn around in the postseason.

The league did not do itself any favors with the schedule. The NCAA Tournament and the Masters started a week later this year, but the NBA did not move with them. As a result, the final three weeks of the season were overshadowed by March Madness, and now the first weekend of the playoffs will be potentially overshadowed by the biggest individual draw in sports TV, Tiger Woods.

Clippers-Warriors Game 1 (8:15p Sat ABC). For the first time, ABC carries first round action in primetime. The Saturday night slot helps avoid Masters competition and should ensure an increase over ABC’s Saturday afternoon window last year (Spurs-Warriors: 2.8). Prediction: 3.2.

NBA Playoffs: Thunder-Blazers Game 1 (3:30p Sun ABC). Perhaps Mother Nature will do ABC a favor and delay Sunday’s final round of the Masters. Otherwise, Thunder-Blazers is likely to challenge one of the lowest NBA playoff ratings ever on broadcast television. Ratings will no doubt plunge from Pacers-Cavaliers in the same window last year (3.8). Prediction: 2.4.

NBA Playoffs: Jazz-Rockets Game 1 (9:30p Sun TNT). The NBA’s best bet for increases this weekend is in primetime, and TNT should score a solid bump for Game 1 of Jazz-Rockets. In the same window last year, T’Wolves-Rockets had a 2.7. Prediction: 3.0.

The Stanley Cup Playoffs got off to a solid start. The numbers are not exactly surging — up a modest eight percent — but average viewership on NBCSN was the highest on record through two days of play. Can the momentum continue into the weekend? In the featured timeslot of the weekend, look for NBC to hold steady with the same Maple Leafs-Bruins matchup last year (1.1). Prediction: 1.1.

After a couple of weeks where the schedule dictated the ratings — a switch from FS1 to FOX lifted Texas; a switch from FOX to FS1 sank Bristol — NASCAR is back to apples-to-apples comparisons this week. Last year, Richmond tied the lowest Cup Series rating ever on broadcast television (1.8). Given the somewhat positive trend this season (four of eight races have increased), one would expect that Saturday’s race should step over last year’s low bar. Prediction: 1.9.