Ratings predictions: ND-UGA, NFL and more

CBS gets one primetime SEC selection per season, and every year since 2011, it has used that pick on Alabama-LSU. What did it finally take for the network to go in another direction? A top-ten matchup involving Notre Dame.

Saturday’s clash between #7 Notre Dame and the #3 Bulldogs is the second top-ten matchup of the season, following LSU-Texas two weeks ago. That game, a high-scoring thriller, had a strong 5.0 on ABC. An even bigger number seems likely this week, assuming the game is close. Georgia is favored by two touchdowns, which could put a crimp in an otherwise ideal matchup for CBS.

The last couple of top ten Notre Dame games have failed to live up to the hype. Their three-touchdown rout of Stanford last season had just a 2.1 rating on NBC, and their 33-point loss to Miami a 3.9 on ABC in 2017.

Even in the best-case scenario, ratings will be hard-pressed to match the 6.6 CBS scored for its primetime Alabama-LSU game last season. Prediction: 5.3.

For the first time this season, FOX gets a top 25 matchup on “Big Noon Saturday.” Michigan-Wisconsin was a primetime game on ABC last year, averaging a 3.5 rating. It aired in the same Noon ET window on FOX two years ago, earning a 3.3. Let’s split the difference. Prediction: 3.4.

Injuries have sapped Sunday’s NFL national window, with the main Saints-Seahawks game missing Drew Brees and the secondary Steelers-49ers game missing Ben Roethlisberger.

No such bad luck for Sunday’s early window, which features a marquee quarterback matchup between Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson and Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes. With the telecast also including Jets-Patriots in a number of markets, expect a strong rating. In the same window last year, FOX averaged an 8.2. Prediction: 9.0.

The Browns return to Sunday Night Football for the first time since 2008 as they host the defending NFC champion Rams. The Browns have proven to be a draw when the expectations are low, such during the preseason or on NFL Network. How can they draw on one of the NFL’s biggest stages? Last year, Patriots-Lions had an 11.5. Prediction: 11.0.

The season’s first NFL singleheader on FOX features the Packers and Cowboys in most markets, which should help ratings surge over last year’s 7.0 for CBS. Still, given the tough competition on CBS, expect the numbers to trail a typical FOX singleheader. Prediction: 8.8.

The season finale of ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball gets a special 6:30 PM ET start time, likely to minimize overlap between the Indians and Browns as much as possible. Will that keep ratings afloat? Probably not. Last year’s comparable Red Sox-Indians game had a 0.7. Prediction: 0.6.

Richmond is a playoff race for the first time, which could help ratings rebound from last year’s mere 1.0 — the lowest for any Cup Series race since at least 2000. Do not expect too high a jump; competition from Notre Dame-Georgia will certainly not help. Prediction: 1.2.

Take out the Indy 500, and the four IndyCar races on broadcast television this season have scored either a 0.7 or 0.8 rating. Of course, none of those races faced NFL competition. Expect lower numbers for Sunday’s season finale. Last year’s finale from Sonoma (Ca.) had a 0.38 on NBCSN. Prediction: 0.6.