Ratings predictions: Divisional Round and LSU-Clemson

Just as in the regular season, NFL Wild Card ratings increased almost across the board last weekend. Three of four games hit multi-year highs, and the lone exception delivered one of the ten largest Wild Card audiences since 1999. Nothing has slowed the NFL’s momentum yet, and it may be the case that nothing will.

If anything is to disrupt the gravy train, it may be the absence of traditional powers going forward. No New England, no New Orleans and no Dallas. Those three teams were featured in 13 of the 14 highest rated games during the regular season. The Cowboys’ absence did not hurt ratings during the Wild Card round, but it is a lot to ask for ratings to hold up sans all three.

There are pros and cons to having new blood advance in the playoffs. Seeing the same teams succeed over and over eventually gets stale. It can still be a good thing to shake things up, even if it means a temporary hit to the ratings. The key is that those new teams have to eventually catch on in their own right. This weekend will test the drawing power of a number of new contenders, particularly the much-hyped Ravens.

Titans-Ravens (8p Sat CBS): The rise of Lamar Jackson was one of the season’s biggest stories, but the Ravens have yet to break through as a ratings draw. Eight regular season windows featured Baltimore in at least half of the country and only three of those increased over last season. The Ravens’ two highest rated games were against high-profile opponents New England (12.7) and San Francisco (12.0). Their matchup this week is against a Titans team with little national following. Expect ratings to sink from Cowboys-Rams last year (17.9). Prediction: 16.0.

Vikings-49ers (4:30p Sat NBC): NBC was no doubt hoping for a Seahawks-49ers rematch on Saturday. Ratings increased substantially for both of the teams’ regular season meetings, including their Week 17 finale on NBC. Instead, the network gets San Francisco against Minnesota in a matchup that is intriguing, if not made-for-TV. The 49ers are a traditional power and the Vikings were a solid draw during the season. Expect a modest ratings bump over Colts-Chiefs last year (16.8). Prediction: 17.5.

Texans-Chiefs (3p Sun CBS): If NBC was hoping for Seahawks-49ers, one imagines that CBS was praying to get Patriots-Chiefs on Sunday. The teams’ AFC Championship last year was the highest rated non-Super Bowl program since 2016 and their December rematch was the highest rated regular season game on CBS since 2015. Another rematch on Sunday would have surely been a big draw.

Instead, CBS gets Kansas City against a Houston team that has never drawn particularly well. One silver lining is the later 3 PM ET start time, which should help ratings surpass Chargers-Patriots in an earlier window last year (17.1). Prediction: 17.5.

Seahawks-Packers (6:30p Sun FOX): FOX would no doubt have preferred Saints-Packers, but Seahawks-Packers is shaping up as a ratings bonanza nonetheless. A Packer home playoff game is almost always a ratings winner, and Sunday’s game will be the first Divisional Round matchup in the 6:30 PM ET window typical of conference championship and Super Bowls. Ratings should comfortably top last year’s 20.8 for Eagles-Saints. Prediction: 22.0.

After a sixteen-day layoff, college football crowns its national champion on Monday night. Clemson is in the title game for the fourth time in five years, facing an opponent other than Alabama for the first time during that run. While LSU is not as strong a draw as Alabama, it brings to the table a certain amount of novelty (having not played in the title game since 2012) and a bona fide star in Joe Burrow.

Dating back to the start of the BCS in 1999, ratings have declined for every national championship to feature Clemson or LSU. If this game is as close as is expected, this year should buck the trend. Last year’s title game set a low bar with a 13.8 rating, the lowest for the national championship since 2004. Prediction: 14.4.

The NFL giveth and the NFL taketh away. The later start for Sunday’s Divisional Round games means that college basketball has a three-hour window Sunday afternoon free of NFL competition. It also means that none of those games will get a 30-million-viewer lead-in from an NFL playoff game. Last year, CBS scored a 1.6 rating for Michigan-Penn State following a Divisional Round game. This year, Michigan State-Purdue will be lucky to get more than half of that number. Prediction: 0.9.