Super Bowl Sunday ratings predictions

The NFL playoffs began on a strong note in the ratings, but the good times faded as the usual suspects were eliminated early (or in the Cowboys’ case, failed to make the postseason entirely). Six of the last seven playoff games have posted ratings declines, including both conference championship games.

That does not bode well for Sunday’s Super Bowl, a relatively attractive matchup that should nonetheless rank among the lowest rated in recent years.

The Chiefs-49ers matchup pits one of the league’s top stars, Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes, against a traditional power in San Francisco. It is not a perfect matchup — the current iteration of the 49ers is both unfamiliar to the public and lacking a marquee QB — but it is not a bad one either.

The problem for the “Big Game” is that it is less impacted by matchups than by factors wholly out of its control. By far the biggest mass event in television, the Super Bowl is uniquely vulnerable to the decline of traditional TV viewing. ‘Vulnerable’ in this case is a relative term; the game will still be a massive draw. However, it is not a coincidence that Super Bowl viewership has declined in four straight years, the longest slide in the history of the game. That streak of declines began with Super Bowl 50, which followed a record-setting 2015 regular season. In other words, it predates the NFL ratings panic of the late 2010s.

There is no reason to expect the trend to reverse this year, even if the game is good.

Last year’s Super Bowl, a 13-3 snoozer, averaged a 41.1 rating. That tied 2005 as the lowest for the game since 2003 (40.7). Prediction: 40.7 rating, 97.65M viewers.

The Bryant tragedy has cast a pall over the NBA that is unlikely to abate any time soon.

In the short term, it is hard to know when the games will start to seem like they matter again. As it pertains to the meaningless domain of the television ratings, that should only exacerbate the league’s malaise.

That even applies to Sunday’s Pelicans-Rockets matchup, which features Williamson. Less than two weeks ago, Williamson’s debut electrified the NBA. That seems like two months ago now. In the same window last year, Thunder-Celtics averaged a 1.6. Prediction: 1.4.

The last time NBC aired a Penguins-Capitals game on Super Bowl Sunday, four years ago, it had a 1.0 rating. That may not sound like much, but NBC’s Sunday afternoon package has only cracked the 1.0 mark once in the four seasons since. Do not expect a repeat for this year’s matchup, though ratings should top last year’s 0.7 for Bruins-Capitals. Prediction: 0.8.

Of all the non-NFL events on Super Bowl Sunday, the Phoenix Open is consistently the highest rated. The past two years, final round coverage has averaged a 2.5 rating — a number that the NBA has not reached on Super Sunday since 2002. It should top the charts again this year. Prediction: 2.4.