Ratings predictions: Belmont, ESPYs, EPL and more

Two weeks after it was originally scheduled to run, The Belmont Stakes kicks off an altered, four-month Triple Crown season. Gauging interest in the Belmont is usually as simple as answering one question: is there a Triple Crown threat or not? When there is, the numbers are in an NBA Finals range. When there is not, more like the regular season.

This year is obviously different. If the Triple Crown is to be won in 2020, it will not be until October at the Preakness. The lack of a Triple Crown chance would usually sink the Belmont, but the benefit of leading off the season should — partly — make up for it.

The Kentucky Derby usually occupies the leadoff spot and is as consistent a draw as there is in sports TV — ratings in the 9.0 range in nine of the past 11 years (the lone exceptions had an 8.5). The Derby primarily owes its drawing power to its particular mystique, an element that the Belmont just does not have. With that said, leading off the season does not hurt.

Saturday’s race is unlikely to come close to Derby levels, but do expect a much stronger performance than is typical for a non-Triple Crown Belmont. Last year’s race had a 3.1. Prediction: 5.5.

The ESPY Awards usually sits on that deadest of times on the sporting calendar, between the MLB All-Star Game and the resumption of the season. In 2020, that dead period has extended to the entire year. So it is that the ESPYs can take place on the date once set aside for Game 7 of the NBA Finals.

This is no ordinary ESPYs. It will air on tape delay for the first time since 2008 and lack its usual live audience. For the first time since 2014, it will not air on ABC. Ratings will surely drop from last year’s 2.6, but the real question is how the event will perform versus 2014, the last time it aired on cable (1.6). In a year bereft of sports, who will watch a sports awards show? Prediction: 1.3.

The Premier League returned on Wednesday with one of its largest weekday audiences since moving to NBC in 2014. That bodes well for this weekend’s matches, particularly Sunday’s Merseyside Derby between Everton and soon-to-be-champion Liverpool.

Since major sporting events started resuming last month, most have experienced a short-term ratings boost. NBC’s last EPL window before hiatus was the March 8 Manchester Derby, which scored a 0.9 — one of the higher EPL ratings on U.S. TV. Prediction: 1.0.

The spring race at Talladega is usually one of NASCAR’s strongest draws, with last year’s 2.8 rating the fifth best of the season (though also the lowest for the race since at least 1997). Expect ratings to hold up fairly well for this year’s months-delayed race. While June is usually a weak month for NASCAR, there should be more viewers tuning in than usual given the Father’s Day holiday and the lack of competing options. That may not be enough for ratings to match last year, but the drop-off should not be too sharp. Prediction: 2.6.

Instead of the US Open on Father’s Day, the PGA Tour presents the Heritage. Last week, the final round at Colonial scored a 2.1 rating – up 50 percent from last year. A similar jump at the Heritage would result in a 2.4 rating, tied as the highest for the tournament since 2004 (2.6). That seems a bit on the high side. Prediction: 2.2.

Neither the UFC nor Top Rank Boxing have been particularly strong draws in recent weeks (though the former is a considerably stronger draw than the latter). Since UFC returned last month, ratings for the main events on ESPN have steadily declined from 0.75 to 0.64 to last week’s 0.56. Meanwhile, Top Rank has failed to crack even a 0.30 in any of its four cards since returning two weeks ago.

ESPN presents a UFC/Top Rank doubleheader on Saturday night and there is no reason to believe the trends will change. Predictions: 0.52 (UFC) and 0.26 (Top Rank)