Ratings predictions: IndyCar, NASCAR and more

Two weeks after the Indy 500 was scheduled to take place, the IndyCar season is finally set to begin. One assumption taken for granted during the deadest period in modern sports history is that viewers are so starved for live events that they will watch anything en masse. That has not necessarily been the case. The success stories over the past three months have been the NFL Draft, “The Last Dance,” “The Match” and NASCAR’s return at Darlington. In their own way, each was a one-off novelty — an unprecedented virtual NFL Draft, the definitive bio/hagiography of Michael Jordan, a golf/football crossover featuring four of the biggest stars in sports, and the first mainstream sporting event (with apologies to UFC) since everything went dark in March.

Outside of those particular events, the increase in sports viewing has been a bit overstated. There have been successes — the most-watched UFC main event in more than a year, the most-watched Bundesliga matches on FS1, the most-watched WNBA Draft in years — but nothing way beyond the pre-pandemic norm.

With that in mind, expect a good number by IndyCar standards. Ratings will surge beyond last year’s Texas race, which aired on NBCSN as the ninth race of the season (0.24). The number will likely be the best for the race since at least 2013, the only other time it aired on primetime broadcast television (1.0). Anything above 1.0 would be the highest for any IndyCar race — outside of the Indy 500 — since the 2011 opener at St. Petersburg (1.2). Still, do not expect a blockbuster. Prediction: 0.9.

NASCAR came out of the gate strong at Darlington three weeks ago, but the ratings since have been about what one would expect in a normal year. Given NASCAR’s trend over the past few years, that is not exactly a good thing.

June is typically the month when NASCAR’s schedule begins to slow down with a number of low-wattage races on cable. This year is obviously different. Atlanta is usually one of the highest rated races of the year, owing to its early spot on the schedule. It had a 3.1 rating last year, when it was the third race of the season. Do not expect ratings to come close to that this year, but anything above a 2.4 would be NASCAR’s best June number since at least 2014. Prediction: 2.6.

The return of the PBA bowling tour marks a rarity in these sports-starved times: a live sporting event with a direct lead-in from another live sporting event. Whether the NASCAR Xfinity Series will give Saturday’s Strike Derby much of a lift is questionable. Especially with IndyCar and the UFC providing another rarity — competition. Prediction: 0.6.

Since returning nearly a month ago, the UFC’s ratings on ESPN have been fairly unremarkable: a 0.7 for UFC 249 prelims May 9, a 0.75 for a main event on May 16, and a 0.6 for a main event last weekend. Expect more of the same this time around. Prediction: 0.6.

After five weeks of success with “The Last Dance,” ESPN fell back to earth with “Lance.” While the documentary about Lance Armstrong did about as well as the previous 30 For 30 about Michael Vick earlier this year, the stakes are higher now than then. There has been some thought that negative feeling toward Armstrong fueled the weak numbers for “Lance,” but the more likely explanation is that viewership has steadily been falling for 30 For 30-type fare, “The Last Dance” being a high-profile exception. In other words, do not expect this week’s installment about Bruce Lee to fare much better — especially given the lack of an ESPN2 simulcast. Prediction: 660K viewers.

— “The Match: Champions for Charity.” Prediction: 3.5; result: 3.0 (excluding HLN)
— NASCAR Cup Series at Charlotte. Prediction: 3.2; result: 2.4.
— ESPN 30 For 30: “Lance.” Prediction: 0.8; result: n.a.
— Bundesliga: Bayern Munich-Entracht Frankfurt. Prediction: 0.17; result: 0.15.