Ratings predictions for the return of the PGA Tour, NASCAR at Homestead and more. After a strong start on Thursday, how high will ratings go for the Colonial tournament?
PGA Tour: final round at Colonial (3p Sun CBS)
The PGA Tour is back with its first weekend rounds since early March. Interest is already higher than normal for the Colonial tournament, which delivered its largest opening round audience in 17 years on Thursday. The strong start should carry into the weekend.
So far, there has been a trend toward better-than-normal numbers for leagues’ first event back from hiatus (Top Rank Boxing and the PBR Tour among the exceptions). Yet the ratings have not always been spectacular. IndyCar returned with its highest rating at Texas in seven years, but it still scored a mere 0.9.
Given that there have already been two exhibitions during the PGA Tour hiatus — including the much-hyped and much-watched “Match” between Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning — some of the pent-up demand for golf may have already been spent. Expect a big increase in ratings, but nothing too out of the ordinary. Last year’s third and final rounds averaged a 1.0 and 1.4, respectively. Predictions: 1.8 and 2.2.
NASCAR Cup Series at Homestead-Miami (3:30p Sun FOX)
For years the final race of the NASCAR season, Homestead was supposed to relocate to March this season. Instead, it takes place in June as the third Cup Series race in the span of a week.
NASCAR scored its highest June rating in six years last weekend at Atlanta, though the number was a new low for the track — and not exactly impressive given the lack of competition (2.5). A similar result this week would amount to a ratings gain; last year’s Homestead race had a mere 2.2. Prediction: 2.4.
UFC Fight Night Main Card (9p Sat ESPN)
UFC ratings have not been particularly impressive in the past two weeks, with last weekend’s UFC 250 prelims scoring a 0.46 rating and a Fight Night two weeks ago earning a 0.6. It is hard to see anything changing for this week’s main event on ESPN. Prediction: 0.55.
ESPN 30 For 30: “Long Gone Summer” (9p Sun ESPN/ESPN2)
That ESPN has managed to air new original documentaries on nine straight Sundays is an impressive programming feat. The run comes to an end this weekend with “Long Gone Summer,” a new 30 For 30 about the 1998 home run chase between Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa. So far, ESPN’s run of documentaries has ranged from unqualified success (“The Last Dance”) to disappointment (“Lance”) with a solid outing for last week’s Bruce Lee doc “Be Water” in between. Like “The Last Dance,” “Long Gone Summer” has 1990s nostalgia in its favor, but that could be canceled out by any residual disdain for the steroid era (a factor that likely hurt “Lance”). Prediction: 1.41M viewers.
Last week’s results
— IndyCar Series at Texas. Prediction: 0.9; result: 0.8
— NASCAR Cup Series at Atlanta. Prediction: 2.6; result: 2.5
— PBA Strike Derby. Prediction: 0.6; result: 0.49
— UFC 250 prelims. Prediction: 0.6; result: 0.46
— ESPN 30 For 30: “Be Water.” Prediction: 660K viewers; result: 1.17M
