Ratings predictions: Week 3 NFL, NBA, Stanley Cup, SEC

Sunday Night Football features one of the NFL’s premier quarterback matchups as Aaron Rodgers and the Packers face Drew Brees and the Saints. Ratings have declined for all three games on NBC this season, though last week’s drop was a mere 3% (and accompanied by a slight bump in viewership). That streak should end this week, especially as last year’s comparable Rams-Browns game set a reachable bar (10.8).

So far, NFL games have been largely unharmed by NBA competition (this past Thursday night being an exception), so do not expect ESPN’s competing Celtics-Heat Game 6 to be much of a drag on the numbers. Prediction: 11.0.

There was a stretch not too long ago when ESPN’s Monday Night Football schedule was so dire that it seemed the NFL was retaliating against the network for something. In the Jimmy Pitaro era of reconciliation, that has changed. Look no further than this week’s blockbuster quarterback matchup between reigning Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes and reigning regular season MVP Lamar Jackson.

MNF just scored a 9.2 rating last week for a “Megacast” game that aired on ABC, ESPN and ESPN2. Chiefs-Ravens should challenge that number on ESPN alone. The only potential issue is if there is a competing Lakers-Nuggets Game 6 on TNT; the NFL will dominate that head-to-head, but the NBA could take a few tenths off. Prediction: 8.6.

The NBA’s Western Conference Finals was supposed to be an all-L.A. “Hallway Series” at Staples Center in late May. Instead, it pits the Lakers against the upstart Nuggets at a fanless Disney World arena in mid-September. Given ratings would probably have declined even if all had gone according to plan — in the alternate reality where there was no COVID-19 (and no Clippers flameout) — it is of course no surprise that the numbers are unusually low.

By the diminished standards of September basketball, Lakers-Nuggets has been an OK draw. Game 4 turned in a respectable number opposite Thursday Night Football, losing the head-to-head 3.1 to 2.7. Saturday night’s football competition may yet be tougher, given the return of the SEC and ABC’s competing FSU-Miami game. The NBA has yet to exceed a 2.0 rating on a college football Saturday this postseason. Prediction: 2.2.

If a Laker buzzer-beater could not even crack a 2.0 rating against Sunday Night Football, it seems doubtful that Celtics-Heat has any shot. Last year’s conference final Game 6 between the Bucks and Raptors had a 3.8 rating — unusually low in a traditional year. This year’s game will be lucky to score half of that number. Prediction: 1.8.

If the NBA’s declines have been steep, the NHL’s have been steeper of late. The first three games of the Stanley Cup Final each sank at least 59 percent from last year, none exceeding a mere 1.1 rating. While fanless September hockey provides any number of obvious caveats, the numbers have been weak even by 2020 standards. Second round games this postseason have generated better numbers than the Stars-Lightning series has thus far. Do not expect many tears from the NHL or NBC if the Lightning finish things off Saturday in the second game of a rare back-to-back. Prediction: 1.2.

The return of the SEC should put a charge into what have been lackluster college football ratings thus far. Most sports have scored bigger-than-average ratings in their returns from long layoffs, but what about individual conferences?

#5 Florida-Mississippi (Noon Sat ESPN): With limited competition on the other college football networks, and with (seemingly) pent-up demand for the SEC, one would think ESPN will score an increase for Florida-Mississippi Saturday afternoon. Still, in a year of uncertainty, do not be surprised if ratings fall short of last year’s comparable window, which featured one of the SEC’s most famous rivalries between Tennessee and Florida (1.6). Prediction: 1.5.

Mississippi State-#6 LSU (3:30p Sat CBS): The SEC on CBS returns with defending champion LSU hosting Mississippi State. So far this season, no college football game has exceeded a 2.4 rating (Duke-Notre Dame). Saturday’s game has a shot at topping that mark, though last year’s 3.0 for Auburn-Texas A&M may be out of reach. Prediction: 2.6.

#2 Alabama-Missouri (7p Sat ESPN): On a night that features the FSU-Miami rivalry, a Laker conference final game and the Stanley Cup Final, look for Alabama’s season debut to narrowly take top honors. Ratings should nearly triple last year’s comparable Oregon-Stanford game (0.8). Prediction: 2.3.

When was the last time Miami and FSU were relevant at the same time? It may be the case that today’s competitors were not alive. Look for the matchup to rank third on a competitive Saturday night of sporting events. Prediction: 1.9.