Ratings predictions: NBA All-Star Game and more

There is little doubt that Sunday’s scheduled NBA All-Star Game will be the lowest rated and least-watched yet. As is no secret, sports viewership has fallen off sharply since the wave of cancellations and postponements that began a year ago this week, and that has particularly been the case for the highest-profile events. NBA All-Star Game ratings have of late settled in the high 3.0-low 4.0 range, the kind of number that prior to last year was common for second-tier sporting events. In this era, which may or may not be temporary, that is the kind of rating one gets for an NBA Finals game.

One could argue that the All-Star Game, taking place just three weeks later than scheduled, should hold up better relative to past years than the months-delayed NBA Finals. Yet there are other drags to consider than merely being played out of season. For one, the players have made clear that they have no interest in playing this year’s game. In addition, this is no All-Star weekend — all of the festivities are crammed into one night. Instead of a Friday Celebrity Game or All-Star Saturday Night, this year’s game is being preceded by two days of radio silence.

An exhibition game featuring unenthusiastic participants and zero build-up seems like a tough sell in an environment where viewers are just not tuning into mass-viewing events the way the used to. It would take only a 10 percent ratings drop for the All-Star Game to set a new record-low (the current mark is 3.8), but expect the decline to be a lot steeper than that. 44 percent sounds about right. Prediction: 2.3. [Related: NBA All-Star Game ratings history]

The Big Ten has been the main ratings driver in this college basketball season, owing in part to the poor performance of some of the sport’s blue bloods — unranked Duke and North Carolina chief among them. The season’s second matchup of Tobacco Road rivals carries some NCAA Tournament implications, but is otherwise as unappealing as any meeting between the teams in recent memory. Their first matchup this season had a 1.1 rating, the lowest for any game between them since at least 2007. Prediction: 1.2.

Despite steep, historic lows for last year’s Masters and U.S. Open, the PGA Tour probably has the most positive ratings story to tell of any sport over the past year. A number of non-major events have posted increases, including six of the last eight windows on broadcast television. It seems doubtful that the sport will ever have the ability to depend on Tiger Woods again, and the spectacular highs he helped the sport reach may be out of the question for years to come. Still, if golf can carve out a place as a reliable draw in an era when ratings are otherwise tanking, that is not a bad spot to be in. Last year’s final round at Bay Hill had a 1.7. Prediction: 2.0.

NASCAR is not off to the greatest of starts in the ratings. Beyond the record-low Daytona 500, the last two races — the Daytona Roval and Homestead-Miami — declined double-digits from the same weeks of last season. This week’s race at Las Vegas seems a lock for another double-digit drop. Last year’s race had a 3.2 and anything less than a 10% decline would result in a season-high. Prediction: 2.5.