Ratings predictions: NBA, Indy 500, Stanley Cup and more

If there was any question as to whether the “bubble” was an anomaly, NBA playoff viewership is up 61 percent from last year’s historic lows — and up 3% from the last traditional postseason in 2019. The league seems well-positioned to maintain its hot start, with all four Western series competitive and both the Knicks and Nets going at least five games.

Typically, Memorial Day weekend marks the culmination of the NBA conference finals. This year, it features a full slate of first round playoff games – 10 total over three days. It is hard to know how first round games will fare on one of the most competitive sports weekends of the year, but based on last week’s performance, the NBA should hold its own.

Knicks-Hawks Game 4 (1p Sun ABC). The Knicks make their first ABC appearance in more than four years Sunday as they face the Hawks in Game 4 of their first round series. Through Wednesday, the Knicks-Hawks series has already generated two of the postseason’s five biggest increases over 2019 – 19% for Game 2 and 12% for Game 1. Another bump seems likely on Sunday. The comparable 2019 window was Celtics-Pacers Game 4, which averaged 3.84 million. Last year’s comparable window in the “bubble” was Celtics-Sixers with just 2.23 million. Prediction: 4.09M.

Suns-Lakers Game 4 (3:30p Sun ABC). Lakers-Suns has generated the two largest audiences of the playoffs through Wednesday, and Game 4 figures to be the most-watched of the postseason-to-date. Do not expect viewership to match Warriors-Clippers Game 4 in 2019 (6.29M), but the numbers should cruise past Clippers-Mavericks in last year’s “bubble” (3.31M). Prediction: 5.04M.

The Indy 500 was one of several sporting events last year to hit a record-low in a new date. The audience of 3.67 million for last year’s August race declined 32 percent year-over-year and 25 percent from the previous low of 4.91 million in 2018.

So far, events shifted months out of alignment last year have largely rebounded in their returns to their usual times of year. The Kentucky Derby rebounded 55 percent to 14.37 million viewers and the final round of the Masters jumped 69 percent to 9.45 million. Both figures were still historically low, but far closer to a normal year than to last year’s anomalous results.

The 500 may have a harder time bouncing back. Just like last year, it is scheduled to face direct competition from the NBA Playoffs – and that competition will presumably be stronger than last year. Viewership will certainly increase, and by double-digits, but do not expect a rebound on the level of the Derby or Masters. Prediction: 4.46M.

In NBC’s sixteen-year run carrying the NHL, perhaps only the Blackhawks had a bigger impact on the ratings than the Bruins. Boston is the only team left in this year’s postseason that can really move the needle in the U.S., and their matchup against the Islanders figures to be the most-watched of the second round. Expect Game 1 ratings to comfortably surpass last year’s Stars-Avalanche Game 1 in the “bubble” (1.23M). Prediction: 1.51M.

Last year, the Coca-Cola 600 was one of the first sporting events post-hiatus and faced zero competition on a barren Memorial Day weekend. Even under those circumstances, it was the least-watched in at least 20 years with just shy of 4 million viewers (3.96M). With wealth of competing sporting events Sunday night, do not expect viewership to rebound. Prediction: 3.77M.

The UEFA Champions League final returns to English-language broadcast television for the first time since 2018. That year, coverage of Real Madrid-Liverpool on FOX averaged 2.00 million – trailing only Barcelona-Juventus in 2015 (2.2M) as the most-watched UCL final ever on a single network. This year’s final will probably fail to meet that standard, even featuring a pair of teams from the popular Premier League. Even so, expect a stronger number than the 1.51 million who watched the event in its sole year on cable network TNT in 2019. Prediction: 1.75M.