Ratings predictions for the most interesting sports TV day in recent memory as the Super Bowl and Olympics share the stage on the same night and network for the very first time.
This weekend marks an unprecedented pairing of what have historically been the two biggest sporting events of them all, at least in the U.S. — the Super Bowl and the Olympics. These events have never been directly comparable, one an annual four-hour spectacle and the other a biennial two-week marathon, yet hold in common a kind of mass appeal rare in sports TV. For four hours, or two weeks, the Super Bowl and the Olympics could attract millions of non-sports viewers uninterested in any other games. Not just the casual fan, but the kind of viewer who simply does not watch any other sports at all.
For the Olympics, things have changed. This year’s Winter Games from Beijing has yet to crack the 14 million viewer mark in primetime — and that is across all of NBC’s many platforms. Even last year’s World Series (the second-least watched ever) cracked the 14 million mark in Game 6. The Olympics continues to win the night (NBC has done so on 100 straight nights of the Games dating back to 2010) but not since 1980 Moscow has there been an Olympics so irrelevant nationally.
This Games is an afterthought for multiple reasons, some geopolitical (the controversial host nation), others inexorable (the decline of linear television). Not helping matters is the shadow of the Super Bowl.
It had been known for years that the 2022 Olympics would be the first to coincide with the Super Bowl. Originally, NBC was to air last year’s Super Bowl and CBS had the rights to this year’s game, which would have meant NBC’s primetime show competing with the Super Bowl in what would have been an embarrassing night for the network — and the IOC. Instead, NBC swapped with CBS, allowing the network to cross-promote the two events. So far, that cross-promotion has gone in only one direction; Saturday’s primetime Olympics coverage opened with the familiar fanfare playing over the sights of Sofi Stadium, Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals.
Sunday night, the NFL returns the favor with the greatest gift in all of television, the Super Bowl lead-in. Not since the 1976 Phoenix Open has a sporting event aired directly after the Super Bowl, a window that for years has been a showcase for the rightsholders’ entertainment divisions. While the Olympics will surely not feature as prominently in the Super Bowl broadcast as vice versa, the Games will nonetheless be integrated into what NBC is calling “Super Gold Sunday.” Can the “Big Game” breathe life into the Games?
NFL Super Bowl 56: Rams-Bengals (6:30p Sun NBC, Peacock)
The Super Bowl has rarely served up such an unexpected matchup. Just two years after leading LSU to a National Championship, Joe Burrow has led the typically-moribund Bengals to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1989. The Rams are back in the Super Bowl for the second time in four years, led by a quarterback in Matthew Stafford who is tasting postseason success for the first time in his 13-year career. NBC surely would have preferred Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, Tom Brady and the Bucs, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. Even so, do not imagine the network has any complaints. A non-traditional Super Bowl is still a Super Bowl and this matchup looks intriguing on paper (Los Angeles is a slim favorite).
Last year’s Super Bowl rating of 38.2 was the lowest since 1969, marking the first time since 1990 that the game failed to crack the 40 mark. Keep in mind that Nielsen’s undercount of out-of-home viewing would not affect the household rating; that 38.2 was the real deal (assuming it was not impacted by Nielsen’s other undercount, wherein the company failed to maintain the quality of its panel throughout 2020 due to COVID-related changes). With playoff ratings up across the board this year, an increase seems like a safe bet. How high will the numbers go? Do not be surprised by another sub-40 rating. With out-of-home now being measured correctly, even the late 30s would presumably be enough for the game to comfortably top the 100 million viewer mark. Prediction: 39.3, 100.14M viewers.
Winter Olympics (appx. 10:45p Sun NBC)
In the Nielsen people-meter era, the least-watched Super Bowl lead-out was ABC’s “Alias” in 2003 (17.4M). Simply matching that audience would give NBC easily its largest audience of the Olympics thus far. One would think a Super Bowl lead-in would get the Olympics to at least the 20 million mark, but in this Olympics one cannot even be completely sure viewership will surpass the comparable night in PyeongChang four years ago (18.2M across all NBC platforms). Realistically, an Olympics that cracked 13.7 million viewers last Sunday night with no lead-in can surely do far better with the biggest lead-in of them all. In the same post-Super Bowl window last year, “The Equalizer” drew 20.40 million on CBS. Prediction: 9.6, 19.96M viewers.
Winter Olympics (6p Sun USA)
If the Olympics figures to do well after the Olympics, the reverse is true during. USA Network has taped speed skating, freestyle skiing and men’s biathlon during the first half of the Super Bowl followed by live figure skating the rest of the night. What kind of an audience can the Olympics muster opposite the Super Bowl — and on cable, no less? Last week’s Sunday evening window on USA Network averaged 1.86 million. Expect far fewer viewers this time around. Prediction: 908K viewers.
NBA: Hawks-Celtics (2p Sun ABC)
The Celtics have turned the corner of late, pushing past basic competence into the rarefied air of not bad. The Hawks have also turned things around, if not quite to the same extent. Ultimately, this is a matchup of teams off the national radar who, while improving, really do not move the needle. If the NBA is going to schedule games on Super Bowl Sunday, it will need to come with better matchups than this. Prediction: 1.0 rating, 1.76M viewers.
PGA Tour Phoenix Open, final round (3p Sun CBS)
Super Bowl Sunday once featured a bustling assortment of sporting events. Twenty years ago, when FOX aired the “Big Game,” NBC, CBS and ABC each programmed full days of live sports — including an NBA doubleheader on NBC that featured Jordan, Reggie Miller, Shaq, Kobe and Dirk. A key difference between now and then is that FOX Super Bowl coverage did not truly get under way until 3 PM ET (for a mere three-hour pregame show). As pregame coverage has expanded, most sporting events have gotten out of the way.
One exception has been golf’s Phoenix Open, now the primary non-football draw on Super Bowl Sunday (though the Olympics will make this year an exception). Last year’s final round scored a 2.1 rating and 3.69 million viewers, figures that are more-than-healthy considering the competition. With the first two PGA Tour weekends on CBS down from last season, plus the added Olympic competition, expect ratings to slip. Nonetheless, do not expect any non-NBC sportscast to do any better on Sunday. Prediction: 1.8, 3.24M.
NCAA women’s gymnastics: Penn State-Michigan (6p Sun ESPN2)
ESPN is punting opposite the Super Bowl, but ESPN2 has live college gymnastics. It is exceedingly rare for any U.S. based sporting event to take place during the Super Bowl, and one wonders exactly what went into the scheduling here. While college gymnastics turned in a solid number on ABC opposite NFL Wild Card weekend last month (624K), ESPN2 opposite the Super Bowl (and the Olympics) figures to be a different story. Expect extremely low numbers. Prediction: 75K viewers.
Last week’s predictions
— Primetime Olympics (first Saturday). Prediction: 12.0M; result: 13.6M.
— Primetime Olympics (first Sunday). Prediction: 14.1M; result: 13.7M.
— NFL Pro Bowl: Prediction: 5.5 rating, 9.29M viewers; result: 3.5*, 6.69M.
— NASCAR “Clash” from LA Coliseum. Prediction: 3.56M viewers; result: 4.28M.
— NBA: Knicks-Lakers. Prediction: 1.5, 2.67M; result: 1.5, 2.58M.
— NHL All Star Game. Prediction: 0.9, 1.85M; result: 0.6, 1.15M.
— CBB: Duke-UNC. Prediction: 1.2, 2.10M; result: 1.2, 2.19M.
* Does not include DisneyXD.
