Ratings predictions for the final round of the Masters, the debut of ESPN’s “Kay-Rod” Sunday Night Baseball simulcasts and more.
Can the Masters stay hot with Tiger out of contention?
The sight of Tiger Woods in red and black at Augusta is one to which many have become accustomed. Nonetheless, it constitutes no minor miracle that we are seeing it again, just 14 months after a car accident that, when first reported, carried echoes of Kobe Bryant. Woods is well out of contention, his score ballooning from just under par on Thursday to +10 by the time CBS came on-air Sunday, but few would have entertained the idea a few weeks ago that he would not only play the Masters but actually make the cut. A little of Tiger on Sunday goes a lot further than none at all.
Woods’ presence lifted the first and second rounds of the Masters to four-year viewership highs, but he played far better on Thursday and Friday than he has over the weekend. With the top of the leaderboard not exactly boasting the most famous names in golf — leader Scottie Scheffler is the world’s #1 player but has not yet acquired the name recognition of Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka, Bryson DeChambeau or even Jon Rahm — CBS is unlikely to have the same success on Sunday that ESPN enjoyed for the opening rounds.
Last year’s final round of the Masters averaged a 5.5 rating and 9.45 million viewers (the latter pending revision), numbers that look pretty strong in the current era, if historically low otherwise. It is reasonable to expect even better numbers given the Tiger story and the strong early ratings. At the same time, a 6+ rating for five hours of golf seems unrealistically high in this era, much less golf when none of the familiar names are in contention. Expect a modest improvement.
Golf: final round of the Masters (2p Sun CBS). Prediction: 5.8, 10.45M.
How many viewers for the “Kay-Rod” cast?
Alternate presentations are the new in-thing in sports broadcasting, but the media hype and Twitter conversation tends to outpace the actual viewership. Just within the past week, ESPN generated more headlines for a special NBA anniversary simulcast of Nets-Knicks on ESPN2 than for the traditional game broadcast. Yet the game broadcast averaged 1.31 million viewers and the alternate presentation just 152,000, or ten percent of the combined audience of 1.46 million. Last Sunday, Diana Taurasi and Sue Bird generated no shortage of viral content with their alternate presentation of the NCAA women’s basketball championship — but the audience of 218,000 on ESPN2 made up a mere 5% of the total audience (4.85M).
To be sure, an additional five and ten percent are not small numbers in television. Nonetheless, while 90-95 percent of the Twitter conversation centers on the alternate presentation, one can be sure that 90-95 of the viewing audience is watching the traditional feed.
Tonight, one can expect nearly all of the social media conversation surrounding the season premiere of Sunday Night Baseball to focus on the Michael Kay-Alex Rodriguez “KayRod” presentation on ESPN2. Yet the main feed, marking the debut of the new Sunday night team of Karl Ravech, Eduardo Perez and David Cone, will almost certainly attract an audience ten times as high. The real question is whether the “KayRod” broadcasts can match the “Statcast” alternate presentations they are replacing. Last season’s first “Statcast” broadcast averaged 202,000 viewers*, ten percent of the audience (2.01M*).
MLB Sunday Night Baseball: Red Sox-Yankees (7p Sun ESPN/ESPN2). Prediction: 1.85M viewers, including 190K for “KayRod” broadcast on ESPN2.
More predictions
NBA: Pacers-Nets (3:30p Sun ESPN). The Nets have much to play for in attempting to clinch a spot in the #7-8 play-in game, but how many viewers will skip the final round of the Masters to watch the Indiana Pacers play? ESPN’s smallest NBA audience this season was 760,000 for Blazers-Jazz last month. Prediction: 0.39, 640K.
NBA: Warriors-Pelicans (9:30p Sun TNT). The only thing at stake Sunday night is whether the Warriors get the #3 or #4 seed, which does not seem like a compelling enough reason for viewers to watch a Stephen Curry-less team take on a 36-45 #9 seed. The least-watched Warriors game all season was a matchup with the Clippers last month that averaged 1.12 million. Prediction: 0.62, 1.24M.
NHL: Predators-Penguins (4p Sun TNT). TNT airs a quadruple-header of NHL and NBA action on Sunday, preceding its primetime NBA doubleheader with a pair of NHL matinees. So far, TNT’s largest Sunday NHL audience is just 349,000 for Islanders-Devils last week. Can a rematch of the ’17 Cup Final surpass that modest mark? Prediction: 0.21, 375K.
Last week’s results
— NCAA men’s Final Four: North Carolina-Duke. Prediction: 9.9, 19.46M; result: 8.6, 17.66M.
— NCAA Women’s National Championship: South Carolina-UConn. Prediction: 2.3, 4.64M; result: 2.6, 4.85M.
— NBA: Nuggets-Lakers. Prediction: 1.1, 1.92M; result: 1.7, 2.89M.
— NASCAR Cup Series: Richmond. Prediction: 2.3, 3.81M; result: 2.3, 3.96M.
