First, the results of last week’s predictions:
- NFL on FOX, Giants/Patriots. Prediction: 45.9. Final rating: 43.1. The 43.1 rating for Super Bowl XLII is the highest for the event since 2000. In large part due to the numbers for the Super Bowl, which was the second-most watched television program in U.S. history, FOX had its best week ever.
- NFL pregame on FOX. Prediction: 9.1. Final rating: 10.8. With the Super Bowl drawing huge numbers, it is no surprise the pregame show was a hit as well. Thanks to an appeal that went beyond just sports fans — FOX had American Idol host Ryan Seacrest handle celebrity segments — the show saw its rating increase 29% from last year.
- NBA on ABC, Mavericks/Pistons. Prediction: 1.6. Final rating: 1.6. A blow-out between two relatively stale teams left ABC with poor ratings on Sunday. The 1.6 for the Pistons’ 90-67 win over Dallas marks a 16% drop from the 1.9 for Pistons/Cavaliers last year.
- NHL on NBC, Rangers/Canadiens. Prediction: 0.6. Final rating: 0.8. Since drawing a 2.2 for the Winter Classic on New Year’s Day, NBC has failed to draw even a 1.0 rating for two subsequent regular season games, both involving the large market New York Rangers.
This week’s predictions:
- NFL on FOX, Pro Bowl, 4:30 PM Sunday — The Pro Bowl may be renown for its irrelevance, but look for the event to draw strong numbers on Sunday. This is the first time in five years the Pro Bowl has aired on broadcast on a Sunday evening, which should lead to a big boost in numbers over the 4.6/9 the event drew on a Saturday night last year. Prediction: 6.0.
- NBA on ABC, Spurs/Celtics, 1 PM Sunday — Kevin Garnett picked the wrong time to suffer an injury. ABC added two Celtics games to its schedule, and it looks like neither game will feature Garnett. This game, a possible NBA Finals preview, would have been a lock for the marquee 3:30 PM timeslot had FOX not scheduled the Pro Bowl for the same time period. In the low-rated 1:00 PM slot, and without Garnett, look for a rating much less impressive than it could have been. Prediction: 2.3.
- NBA on ABC, Lakers/Heat, 3:30 PM Sunday — Shaq is gone and the Heat have the worst record in the NBA. This is not what ABC envisioned when it gave Miami the maximum amount of television appearances at the start of the season. That being said, there is a major buzz surrounding the Lakers after their acquisition of Pau Gasol. Whether that translates into good numbers opposite the Pro Bowl remains to be seen. Prediction: 2.0.
- NHL on NBC, Ducks/Red Wings, 3:30 PM Sunday — NBC would have preferred a Pittsburgh Penguins game featuring Sidney Crosby; however, thanks to the injury suffered by the NHL’s biggest star, a rematch of the Western Conference Finals will have to suffice. For the third time, NBC’s NHL coverage will air on the same day as a major NFL event. Can Ducks/Red Wings finally draw a rating higher than 0.8? Prediction: 1.2.
- NASCAR on FOX, Budweiser Shootout, 8 PM Saturday — NASCAR is back, and happy to be on FOX. Last year, the Budweiser Shootout beat the Pro Bowl head to head. Without the NFL to compete with this Saturday night, look for a strong rating for NASCAR’s return to the air. Prediction: 5.5.
