For all the talk about parity in the NFL, it should be pointed out that the league?s recent ratings success can be attributed to marquee franchises, star players, and big markets — the same mix on which Major League Baseball and the NBA are criticized for relying.
The Super Bowl has somehow increased in popularity over the past half-decade. The game has added approximately fifteen million viewers between 2005 and 2011, with viewership rising in each successive season.
While some of the rise can be attributed to the overall growth in television viewers, the NFL has also benefited from the presence of TV-friendly teams both in the Super Bowl and the earlier rounds of the playoffs.
Over the past nine seasons, only three teams have reached the Super Bowl out of the AFC, the Steelers, Patriots and Colts. All three teams feature star quarterbacks ? in particular the Patriots? Tom Brady and the Colts? Peyton Manning ? and the Patriots and Steelers have both won multiple championships over the past decade. Over the same nine-season span, the NFC has been represented in the Super Bowl by the big market Giants, Bears and Eagles four times, with the Packers ? one of the most recognizable NFL teams despite playing a small market ? making the championship game last year. This year?s Super Bowl encapsulates the recent trend, featuring a pair of marquee, traditional teams in big markets led by superstar quarterbacks.
In the years when a surprise team managed to enter the mix, ratings have suffered. While the Cardinals? Super Bowl loss to the Steelers in 2009 was the most-viewed ever (at the time), their NFC Championship Game victory over the Eagles earned a 21.9 rating ? the lowest for a Conference Championship game since 2006, when the Seahawks? win over the Panthers drew a 20.8. Compare the Cardinals? and Seahawks? victories to recent NFC Championship games involving some of the league?s biggest names ? the Giants against the Packers in 2008 (29.0), Brett Favre?s Vikings against the Saints in 2010 (30.6), the Packers against the rival Bears last year (28.1) and the Giants against the 49ers this year (30.6).
The general perception surrounding the NFL is that any team can win ? and viewers will watch no matter what. As The New York Times noted in November, as the NBA and NBPA reached an agreement on a new CBA: ?As the N.F.L. season winds toward the playoffs, seldom does the league lose a minute’s sleep worrying whether Super Bowl participants will captivate the viewing masses. Conversely, [NBA Commissioner David] Stern once cracked a joke born of truth that the ideal N.B.A. finals would be anybody against the Lakers. ? The [NBA]’s most explosive growth years were marked by predictability, the reliance on a handful of transcendent teams and stars relentlessly marketed by the major basketball shoe companies? (NYT, 11/27/11).
There may be truth to that, but it has been a while since the NFL has had to deal with an unappealing Super Bowl. Games involving the Cardinals (2009), Seahawks (2006) and Panthers (2004) have also featured the Steelers (2009 and 2006) and Patriots (2004). The last true dud of a Super Bowl matchup may have been Buccaneers/Raiders in 2003, which earned 88.637 million viewers ? unimpressive compared to the well over 100 million viewers for the past two games, but actually up from Patriots/Rams on FOX a year earlier (86.801M).
Perhaps the real difference between the NFL and the NBA or Major League Baseball is that the NFL does not suffer quite as mightily as the other sports when lower-profile teams succeed. Ratings may decline in the Conference Championship rounds when unheralded teams make long playoff runs, but the Super Bowl seems generally immune. That said, even if the lower-profile teams are not necessarily a drag on ratings, the big names and big markets move the needle just as in any other sport. In other words, there may not be an equivalent to the San Antonio Spurs in the NFL, but there would certainly seem to be equivalents to the Los Angeles Lakers and New York Yankees.
Of course, it could be argued that the NFL?s parity is reflected in the fact that smaller market teams like the Steelers (#23 market), Colts (#26 market) and Packers (#69 market) are among the marquee franchises. However, the other leagues have big name teams in smaller markets as well ? the NBA?s Heat (#16) and Thunder (#44) and the NHL?s Penguins (#23) come to mind.
Overall, the NFL may be perceived as the one league that can shun big stars and big markets, but it seems apparent that even the titan of sports leagues has ridden ?a handful of transcendent teams and stars? to even greater success.
