First, the results of last week’s predictions.
- NBA on ABC, Celtics/Pistons. Prediction: 3.8. Final rating: 3.7. Surprisingly, the lone Eastern Conference Final game to air on broadcast also drew the smallest audience. The 3.7 for the Celtics first road win of the series was up 19% from last year.
- NHL on Versus, Penguins/Red Wings. Prediction: 1.7. Final rating: 1.2. Ratings for the Stanley Cup Finals are way up from last year, with Versus drawing record numbers. Still, record high ratings on Versus are still small compared to ratings on other networks. The 1.2 for Game 1 was up a whopping 140% from a 0.5 last year, but was outdrawn by the NASCAR Nationwide Series race airing on ESPN2 at the same time.
- IRL on ABC, Indianapolis 500. Prediction: 4.9. Final rating: 4.6. Coming off of the reunification with CART/Champ Car and the hype generated by Danica Patrick‘s first win, the IRL had to be expecting a better rating for its crown jewel event. The 4.6 for the Indy 500 marks a 7% increase over a 4.3 for last year’s rain delayed race, and is tied as the third-lowest rating for the event since at least 1992.
- NASCAR on FOX, Coca Cola 600. Prediction: 4.7. Final rating: 4.7. The Coca Cola 600 saw a 4% increase from last year. While the race outdrew the Indianapolis 500, it also drew the smallest rating of any Sunday afternoon NASCAR race this season.
- NBA on TNT, Lakers/Spurs. Prediction: 4.3. Final rating: 3.7. The lone Spurs’ victory in the Western Conference Finals was up 28% from the comparable Pistons/Cavaliers Game 4 last year.
This week’s predictions:
- NHL on NBC, Red Wings/Penguins, 8 PM Saturday — The NHL and MMA can breathe a huge sigh of relief, as neither will have to compete with what would have been Game 6 of the Lakers/Spurs series. Still, the NHL could face a potentially embarrassing moment tonight if Game 4 of its glamour series does not outdraw the premiere of the CBS Elite XC series. Game 3 drew a 2.4 on Wednesday; expect slightly lower numbers on a low-rated Saturday night. Prediction: 2.2.
- Elite XC Extreme Combat on CBS, 9 PM Saturday — For the first time, Mixed Martial Arts gets a prime time platform on network television. While many in the mainstream media are criticizing the sport for being lowbrow and/or barbaric, that could add to viewer curiosity. In 2001, the similarly criticized XFL debuted with a 9.5/17 on NBC. While MMA should draw a far lower rating tonight, do not be surprised if CBS draws a higher rating than NBC, which is airing Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Finals. Prediction: 2.9.
- French Open on NBC, early rounds, 1 PM Saturday and Sunday — Venus and Serena are already gone, and Andy Roddick never showed up. NBC must be hoping for better luck at Wimbledon. French Open coverage on the comparable weekend last year averaged ratings of 0.9 and 1.1. Prediction: 0.7 and 0.8.
- NASCAR on FOX, Best Buy 400, 1:30 PM Sunday — NASCAR on FOX ends a moderately successful run, with ratings up slightly from last year. Last year, the comparable race was rained out. Prediction: 5.1.
- IRL on ABC, ABCSupply Co./A.J. Foyt 225, 4 PM Sunday — Coming off of increased, though slightly disappointing, ratings for the Indy 500, the IRL returns to broadcast television for a second straight week. Last year, the comparable race drew a 1.0 on ABC, less than half of the 2.2 rating FOX drew for a rained out NASCAR race. Prediction: 1.2.
