The NBA has its wish. For the first time in many years, the league has the best possible match-up for its crown jewel event.
Even in 1997 and 1998, the NBA missed out on golden opportunities. Forget Bulls/Jazz — imagine how high the ratings would have been if it was Bulls/Rockets in ’97 or Bulls/Lakers in ’98? In 2000, the league was agonizingly close to a Knicks/Lakers Finals (and one fourth quarter collapse away from the ultimate nightmare, Blazers/Pacers). In 2002, NBC could have finished its run with Celtics/Lakers, but Jason Kidd and the mercilessly overmatched Nets had other ideas.
Only rarely has the NBA gotten the match-up it wanted. 76ers/Lakers in ’01, Bulls/Suns in ’93, and Bulls/Lakers in ’91 are all recent examples. And each one of those series set a ratings milestone for the league.
The ’91 Finals were the second-highest rated ever at the time. The ’93 Finals set the all-time record (until the ’98 Finals eclipsed that mark). And the 2001 Finals has the distinction of being the highest rated NBA Finals since Michael Jordan retired, and the only Finals during that span to crack a 12.0 average rating.
With that in mind, expectations are high for this year’s Celtics/Lakers series. The league has everything it could ask for: mainstream stars (Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Kobe Bryant), big market cities (Los Angeles is the #2 market, Boston is #7), and the renewal of a rivalry between the most storied teams in the league.
While there is little doubt the ratings for Celtics/Lakers will surge past the 6.2 for Spurs/Cavs last year, it may be too much to ask for the series to match or surpass the ratings from 2001. Since 2004, only a select few sporting events have been able to draw a 12.0 rating, with heavy hitters as the World Series, Daytona 500 and the Masters not even coming close.
A more realistic goal may be for this series to just crack a 10.0. The NBA Finals have averaged a double digit rating only once since ABC began airing games six years ago. Only six times has ABC even drawn a 10.0 for an individual game (Games 2-5 in ’04, Game 7 in ’05 and Game 6 in ’06).
If this series draws an average in the low-to-mid 10.0 range, ABC can be satisfied. If the series averages a 10.3 or higher, ABC could brag about carrying the second-highest rated series in the past seven years and beating the Daytona 500 — and if it draws a 10.7 or higher, the Finals would beat the World Series.
Even a 9.5 to a 9.9 would not be disastrous, considering it would put the Finals in the same range as the Final Four and the aforementioned Masters.
Obviously, anything below a 9.0 would be an utter stomach punch to the league. That being said, even an 8.6 average would make these NBA Finals the highest rated in four years — which sounds good in a press release.
An average of 12.0 or higher would be a dream scenario. 13 or higher is more along the lines of impossible. ABC could draw a 13+ rating for an individual game, and if the series goes seven, the final game could draw more than a 14.4 rating — which would make it the highest rated game since Jordan retired. But averaging a number that high would be a complete surprise.
No matter what the rating, ABC and the NBA are virtually ensured at least a huge increase in ratings for the finals. Even the ‘stomach punch’ rating of 8.6 would mark a 39% increase from last year. The danger comes in the fact that this Finals, with everything falling into place for the NBA, will be as good an indicator as any of where the league lies on the sports landscape. And if the ratings are disappointing for the best case scenario, that could spell trouble.
