Far from being cowed by federal scrutiny over its deals with streamers, the NFL appears to be moving full-steam ahead on its media rights strategy.
In a wide-ranging Vanity Fair profile published Tuesday, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell pushed back against claims that the league’s rights deals with streaming companies are “anti-consumer,” noting that the majority of its games are distributed via broadcast television, and that streaming services are “incredibly widely distributed.” Goodell: “Netflix is not a small distribution. In fact, you can make an argument it’s bigger than some of the networks.”
Netflix is entering the final year of a three-year contract to carry Christmas Day NFL games and is in discussions to renew — and potentially expand — its deal. There is little doubt that the streamer is ‘bigger’ than any of the traditional networks, with its $370 billion market cap dwarfing even Disney ($179B). (Amazon, it should be noted, has a market cap in the trillions.)
But on the rare occasions when Netflix has submitted to Nielsen measurement — its Christmas Day NFL games and MLB Opening Night — viewership has not quite reached the heights possible on a broadcast network. In the first two years of its Christmas NFL deal, Netflix averaged about 24 million for its two holiday doubleheaders (including over-the-air simulcasts in the home markets), compared to more than 28 million for the league’s Christmas tripleheader in 2023, when all three games aired on broadcast television. That is despite considerable changes to Nielsen methodology since 2023 that have benefited most sports properties.
This past season, its Lions-Vikings Christmas game delivered more than 27 million viewers — one of the largest audiences of the NFL regular season, but still not the most-watched window of that week, as FOX averaged nearly 29 million for its late Sunday national window.
In the Vanity Fair interview, Goodell described streamers as offering “innovation,” “technology” and “an important platform,” and said the league had “learned a lot” from Google-owned YouTube in particular: “The importance of creators and influencers, how they’ve done that. They took over Sunday Ticket, which is a package that we thought could have a lot more innovation, and they’ve done an amazing job with it.”
Google is widely believed to be the leading contender for the new five-game media rights package the league is currently shopping, which consists of four windows ESPN relinquished as part of its NFL Network acquisition, plus the league’s new International Series game from Australia.
The NFL is currently facing a federal investigation into its rights deals with streamers that has been cheerled by one of its own broadcast partners, Fox Corporation. Goodell attended the 95th birthday party of Fox emeritus chairman Rupert Murdoch in March, per the Vanity Fair profile, and praised him as a “true visionary.”
If there has been any change to the NFL-Fox relationship, there are no clear indications one way or the other. NFL EVP/media distribution Hans Schroeder said last month that Fox will get a Christmas Day game next season, marking the league’s first broadcast TV window on the holiday since 2023. But Fox also seems certain to be passed over for the league’s new five-game rights package, despite Pro Football Talk writer Mike Florio reporting that it was a contender for the rights.
And the league has given no indication whatsoever that it is shying away from streamers. In addition to Goodell’s comments, the league’s VP/broadcast planning Mike North suggested in a podcast last month that shifting the inventory in the five-game package from ESPN to streaming could be seen as “more fan-friendly,” noting that ESPN is “down to 50 million homes” and the streamers are “arguably more widely distributed.”
The NFL is widely expected to attempt renegotiating its media rights packages ahead of schedule this year, and has taken advantage of a change of control provision in its CBS deal to begin renewal talks with the network’s recently-sold parent company Paramount. The league is believed to be seeking a 100 percent increase in rights fees, with the networks thought to be more willing to pay closer to 25 percent, according to Alex Sherman of CNBC.
Schroeder said in the Vanity Fair piece that the league believes its rights are “undervalued.” Fox Corporation CEO Lachlan Murdoch famously said in an earnings call this year that he believes the company is paying “market price” for its NFL rights.
