The World Series began tonight, and despite the doom and gloom projections of record low ratings, FOX figures to do relatively well.
The series between the Philadelphia Phillies and Tampa Bay Rays matches the nation’s #4 and #13 markets, making this the largest market World Series since the 2005 series matched #3 Chicago and then-#11 Houston. Last year’s series was a battle between the #7 (Boston) and #18 (Denver) markets, and ’06 featured the #11 (Detroit) and #21 (St. Louis) markets.
Of course, big markets do not always guarantee big ratings. The recently completed NLCS between the Phillies and Dodgers matched the #4 and #2 markets, and finished as the lowest rated, least viewed ever on broadcast.
And the size of the markets may not be as big a factor as the followings the teams command. The Phillies cannot begin to match the drawing power of the Red Sox, Cubs or Yankees. Meanwhile, the Rays enter the World Series with limited exposure, having played only a handful of regular season games and zero playoff games on broadcast.
Still, even if the Rays and Phillies do not command big ratings, there is the possibility this series will not just avoid being the lowest rated in history, but will actually finish as the highest rated in three years.
Major League Baseball is currently in the midst of a stretch that has seen the last four World Series end in five games or less, with three sweeps during that span. As the highest rated games of any series in any sport occur towards the end, short series are not a recipe for good ratings. Had the Rays finished off the Red Sox in Game 5 of the ALCS, as opposed to Game 7, the series would have averaged approximately 1.4 million fewer viewers.
Partly for that reason, ratings for the World Series have been underperforming compared to their potential. Had last year’s Red Sox/Rockies series been more competitive, it certainly could have drawn over an 11.0 rating.
If Phillies/Rays were to go six or seven games, it would not be out of the question for the series to average at least a 10.7 rating, surpassing last year’s Red Sox/Rockies series and the record low for Cardinals/Tigers. Depending on the quality of the games, the ratings for a long series could possibly rise over an 11.2, which would make it the highest rated World Series since 2004.
Of course, yet another sweep could easily draw less than a 10.1 average and establish a brand new record low. No World Series has ever averaged a single-digit rating, which is a distinct possibility for this year’s matchup if it is a short series. Still, even if the World Series draws less than a 10.0 rating, a 9.0 or higher would still put it in the same league as many other major sports properties. The Celtics/Lakers NBA Finals drew a 9.3 average in June, the Final Four averaged a 9.4 on CBS in March, and the Bowl Championship Series averaged a 9.5 on FOX and ABC in January.
Overall, though far from the matchup Bud Selig would have chosen at the start of the playoffs, Phillies/Rays will not do as poorly in the ratings as some believe. One has to believe that MLB is due for a long World Series, which would lead to solid, if unspectacular, ratings. And even if this is another four or five game series, the numbers should still top those of the NBA Finals, Final Four and BCS.
