First, the results of last week’s predictions.
Source: Sports Business Daily
| Sport | Game/Event | Net |
Prediction
|
Final rating
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| College football | Alabama/Virginia Tech | ABC |
3.8
|
4.2
|
| The 4.2 for Alabama/Virginia Tech was up 17% from last year, up 27% from ’07, and the highest rating for the season debut of Saturday Night Football since ’06. | ||||
| College football | BYU/Oklahoma | ESPN |
2.5
|
2.8
|
| BYU’s upset win over Oklahoma drew a 2.8 U.S. rating on ESPN last Saturday, up 75% from a 1.6 for Illinois/Missouri on the comparable night last year. | ||||
| College football | Georgia/Ok. St. or other regional action | ABC |
3.0
|
3.5
|
| Regional college football action drew a 3.5 rating on ABC last Saturday afternoon, up 25% from last year’s comparable coverage, and up 46% from ’07. | ||||
| College football | Nevada/Notre Dame | NBC |
2.6
|
1.3
|
| NBC’s Notre Dame coverage began with a thud last week. The 1.3 for Nevada/Notre Dame was off 44% from a 2.3 for San Diego St./Notre Dame last year, and marks the lowest rating for Notre Dame on NBC since ’07. | ||||
| College football | Miami/Florida St. | ESPN |
3.9
|
5.1
|
| The Miami/Florida State rivalry continues to attract eyeballs. The 5.1 for Miami’s win last Monday was up 25% from Tennessee/UCLA last year, and marks the highest rated college football game on cable since Miami/Florida State in ’06. | ||||
| Golf | Deutsche Bank Championship, Final Rd. | NBC |
3.3
|
2.2
|
| The 2.2 for the final round of the Deutsche Bank Championship marks a 47% rise from last year’s 1.5, but is still of 35% from a 3.4 in ’07. | ||||
| Tennis | U.S. Open | CBS |
1.3 (Sat)
|
1.4 (Sat)
|
|
1.5 (Sun)
|
1.7 (Sun)
|
|||
| CBS’ coverage of the U.S. Open was up 17% on Saturday and 31% on Sunday. | ||||
| NASCAR | Pep Boys Auto 500 | ESPN |
3.3
|
3.5
|
| The 3.5 U.S. rating for last Sunday’s Pep Boys Auto 500 was up 6% from last year’s comparable Pepsi 500. | ||||
| MLB | Red Sox/White Sox or other regional action | FOX |
1.4
|
1.3
|
| FOX drew a 1.3 rating for regional MLB coverage last Saturday, up 8% from comparable coverage last year, but the lowest rating of the season for an MLB telecast on the net. FOX is averaging a 1.9 rating for MLB coverage, down 5% from last year. | ||||
Ratings unavailable for U.S. Open on CBS Labor Day.
This week’s predictions:
| Sport | Game/Event | Date/Time | Net |
Prediction
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Washington/Giants or other regional action | 4:15 PM Sunday | FOX |
13.2
|
| The highly rated 4:15 PM NFL window features a big market NFC East battle between Washington and the New York Giants. Last year’s comparable Cowboys/Browns tilt drew a 13.0. | ||||
| NFL | Bears/Packers | 8 PM Sunday | NBC |
11.0
|
| Sunday Night Football kicks off with the Bears/Packers rivalry. Look for ratings to hold up well compared to last year’s Bears/Colts tilt (11.2). | ||||
| NFL | Cowboys/Buccaneers or other regional action | 1 PM Sunday | FOX |
9.2
|
| With the Cowboys and Brett Favre both in action, look for the first half of Sunday’s FOX NFL doubleheader to see a huge increase in ratings over last year’s relatively poor 5.1. | ||||
| NFL | Jets/Texans or other regional action | 1 PM Sunday | CBS |
9.0
|
| CBS opens its NFL season with a slate of regional matchups on Sunday. Opposite some marquee attractions on FOX, look for ratings to slip somewhat from the 9.4/21 for comparable regional action in ’08. | ||||
| College football | USC/Ohio State | 8 PM Saturday | ESPN |
6.4
|
| This marquee college football battle should end up as ESPN’s highest rated college football telecast ever, a record currently held by Miami/Florida State in ’06 (5.7). Last year, a blowout between Ohio State and USC drew a 7.0 on broadcast network ABC. Expect slightly lower numbers on cable. | ||||
| College football | Notre Dame/Michigan | 3:30 PM Saturday | ABC |
3.8
|
| Last week, Notre Dame was not much of a draw against Nevada, drawing a mere 1.3 rating. Against rival Michigan, the numbers should climb much higher. Last year’s game between the rivals drew a 3.5 (NBC); the last time they played on ABC, the game drew a 2.5. | ||||
| Tennis | Semifinals, S. Williams/Clijsters | 9 PM Saturday | CBS |
2.3
|
| The S. Williams/Clijsters women’s semifinal of the U.S. Open finally got underway after 9 PM on Saturday. With rain dousing the U.S. Open in the past three days, the tournament has likely lost much of its ratings momentum. Due to rain, there was no telecast in the comparable window last year. | ||||
| Tennis | Semifinals, Federer/Djokovic | 4 PM Sunday | CBS |
3.0
|
| CBS will air the Federer/Djokovic men’s semifinal after NFL coverage on Sunday. Last year, comparable coverage of the Murray/Nadal semifinal drew a 3.0. | ||||
| Tennis | Women’s Final | 9 PM Sunday | ESPN2 |
1.7
|
| Thanks to rain, the women’s final of the U.S. Open will be relegated to cable network ESPN2 on Sunday night. Last year’s S. Williams/Jankovic women’s final drew a 3.3 on CBS in the same timeslot; expect smaller numbers on cable. | ||||
| Golf | BMW Championship, Final Round | 2 PM Sunday | NBC |
3.1
|
| Tiger Woods is atop the leaderboard entering Sunday’s final round of the BMW Championship, which should equal a massive increase in ratings. Four of Woods five victories this season have had at least a 100% increase in ratings for final round coverage. Last year, the final round of the BMW Championship drew a 1.2 rating. | ||||
| NASCAR | Chevy Rock & Roll 400 | 7:30 PM Sunday | ABC |
4.0
|
| Saturday’s Chevy Rock & Roll 400 marks NASCAR’s return to broadcast for the first time since May. Last year’s race was postponed to Sunday due to rain and aired on ESPN (2.5 U.S. rating). In ’07, the race drew a 4.2 rating on ABC. | ||||
| MLB | Mets/Phillies or other regional action | 4 PM Saturday | FOX |
1.3
|
| Opposite college football, expect another small rating for MLB coverage on FOX. On the comparable date last year, MLB on FOX drew a 1.3 rating. | ||||
