First, the results of last week’s predictions:
- NBA on ABC, Heat at Pistons. Prediction: 1.8. Final rating: 1.9. A close game between teams that have played for the Eastern Conference crown each of the last two seasons does not even manage a 2.0 rating. Heat star Dwyane Wade‘s absence may have played a role, but his playing would have only accounted for a minimal increase.
- NBA on ABC, Mavericks at Suns. Prediction: 2.2. Final rating: 2.4. The top two teams in the NBA, both of whom play an exciting energetic style of basketball, and both of whom feature MVP candidates (including two-time defending MVP Steve Nash) fail to manage even a 2.5 rating. There is no excuse for that — especially considering the classic game the two teams played in mid-March.
- Men’s Final Four on CBS, Georgetown v. Ohio State. Prediction: 9.2. Final rating: 8.4. The Final Four will likely never return to the levels of even earlier in this decade. While an 8.4 is respectable (and in the same range as the NBA Finals), it is certainly below par for March Madness. Unfortunately for CBS, below par has become quite normal.
- Men’s Final Four on CBS, Florida v. UCLA. Prediction: 10.5. Final rating: 8.9. Neither national semifinal game drew even a 9.0 rating. The only solace for college hoops is that the National Championship Game drew a healthy 12.2, and all the other sports are collapsing as well.
- NASCAR on FOX, Goody’s Cool Orange 500. Prediction: 5.9. Final rating: 5.3. Continuing a ominous trend for NASCAR, ratings for last Sunday’s race were down 15 percent from the comparable DirecTV 500 a year ago. At least on FOX, the honeymoon is over.
- NHL on NBC, Red Wings/Blue Jackets. Prediction: 0.6. Final rating: 0.7. As predicted, the NHL on NBC set a record low. Having the Blue Jackets on the Game of the Week is as good an argument as any for flexible scheduling.
Baseball Opening Night and Women’s Final Four ratings are currently unavailable.
This week’s predictions:
- MLB on FOX: Mets at Braves, 3:30 PM Saturday — Baseball typically gets slightly better numbers than the NBA, with games drawing anywhere from a 2.2 to a 2.8. This is the earliest a baseball game has aired on FOX since a Friday night Yankees/Red Sox game in April of 2004. While the timeslot is good, expect The Masters to crush baseball, especially this early in the season. Prediction: 1.9.
- NBA on ABC: Cavaliers at Pistons, 1:00 PM Sunday — The NBA on ABC has been in a ratings funk since the All Star Break. When Mavs/Suns cannot even draw a 2.5, there is a definite problem. That problem will not be alleviated anytime soon, especially considering that CBS is airing the Final Round of The Masters. Last year, Pacers/Pistons drew a 1.8 in the same timeslot. This year, expect more of the same. Prediction: 1.6.
- NBA on ABC: Suns at Lakers, 3:30 PM Sunday — The last time the Lakers played the Suns, on March 4, the game was competitive and still only drew a 1.9 rating. In 2005, the last time ABC aired a 3:30 game opposite The Masters, the game was Lakers/Kings — and the rating was 1.8. Prediction: 1.8.
- The Masters on CBS, Final Round, 2:30 PM Sunday — Despite the jingly music and overkill on reverence, The Masters has not drawn a double digit rating since 2001. Last year, the Final Round drew an 8.4 rating. In 2005, when Tiger Woods won, the Final Round drew a 9.8. With that in mind: Prediction (if Tiger is in contention): 9.7. Prediction (if Tiger is not in contention): 8.1.
- NHL on NBC, Sabres/Flyers or Blackhawks/Stars, 1:00 PM Sunday — The best in the East takes on the worst in the East. The Flyers have the worst record in the entire NHL, making their appearance on national television confounding at best. In the other game, the #6 Stars take on the #12 Blackhawks. At this point, with the awful games the network is offering, NBC deserves the ratings it gets. Prediction: 0.8.
- MLS on ABC, United/Rapids, 3:30 PM Saturday — Opposite the season premiere of baseball on FOX and The Masters on CBS, expect comically low numbers from Major League Soccer. Prediction: 0.3.
Ratings information obtained via mysanantonio.com.
