Weekend Ratings Predictions

First, the results of last week’s predictions

Sport	Game/Event	Net	Prediction	Rating
NBA	Lakers/Magic	ABC	2.0	2.1
ABC drew a 2.1 final rating for last Sunday’s Lakers/Magic game, up 31% from Suns/Spurs last year (1.6), but even compared to Spurs/Suns in ’08 (2.1).
NHL	Red Wings/Blackhawks	NBC	1.0	1.0
The Red Wings’ win over the Blackhawks last Sunday drew a 1.0 final rating on NBC, up 25% from both Bruins/Rangers last year and Penguins/Capitals in ’08 (0.8).
NASCAR	Kobalt Tools 500	FOX	4.7	5.3
The 5.3 final rating for last Sunday’s Kobalt Tools 500 marks a 4% decline from last year (5.5) and a 17% drop from 2008 (6.4). All four NASCAR races this season have had declines in ratings.
Golf (M)	Honda Classic, Third Round	NBC	1.4	1.2
Golf (M)	Honda Classic, Final Round	NBC	1.6	1.6
Ratings for the Honda Classic were even on Saturday and up 7% on Sunday.
NCAA BB (M)	North Carolina/Duke	ESPN	2.1	1.6
Last Saturday’s clash between North Carolina and Duke drew a 1.6 U.S. rating on ESPN, up 33% from Louisville/West Virginia last year, but down 45% from last year’s comparable Duke/North Carolina game on CBS.
NCAA BB (M)	Florida/Kentucky	CBS	1.7	1.5
	Missouri Valley Conference Championship Game		1.4	0.9
	Michigan/Michigan St.		1.3	1.1
Ratings for last Sunday’s college basketball tripleheader on CBS were up 7% (Fla/Kentucky), down 31% (MVC title game) and down 62% (Mich./Mich. St).

This week’s predictions:

Sport	Game/Event	Date/Time	Net	Prediction
NCAA BB (M)	NCAA Tournament Selection Show	6 PM Sunday	CBS	4.3
Ratings for the NCAA Tournament Selection Show dropped 20% from 2004-08, before seeing a modest bump last year. Look for ratings to hold steady for this year’s show.
NCAA BB (M)	Big Ten Championship Game (Minnesota/Ohio St.)	3:30 PM Sunday	CBS	2.3
With no competition from other college basketball games, look for Sunday’s Big Ten Championship Game to draw solid numbers on CBS. Last year’s Purdue/Ohio St. final drew a 2.5 rating.
NCAA BB (M)	Big East Championship Game (Georgetown/West. Virginia)	9 PM Saturday	ESPN	1.9
Last year’s Big East title game between Louisville and Syracuse drew a 2.4 U.S. rating on ESPN and ranked as the network’s most-viewed Big East telecast in at least 19 years. Look for Saturday’s Georgetown/West Virginia title game to fall short of last year’s numbers.
NCAA BB (M)	ACC Championship Game (Georgia Tech/Duke)	1 PM Sunday	ESPN	1.4
Sunday’s Georgia Tech/Duke ACC Championship Game should have little trouble topping last year’s Florida St./Duke matchup, which drew a mere 1.2 U.S. rating.
NCAA BB (M)	SEC Championship Game (Miss. St./Kentucky)	1 PM Sunday	ABC	1.7
While the presence of Kentucky should boost the numbers for the SEC title game, the fact that the game is airing on ABC — which has not aired college basketball coverage this season — could hamper the numbers. Last year’s title game, which aired on CBS, drew a 1.9 rating.
NBA	Celtics/Cavaliers	3:30 PM Sunday	ABC	1.8
ABC’s last NBA telecast for three weeks features the two highest profile teams in the Eastern Conference. With much of the attention this weekend focused on college basketball — and with the Celtics playing mediocre basketball as of late — expect Sunday’s game to be the latest high-profile NBA matchup on ABC to draw fairly unimpressive numbers.
NHL	Capitals/Blackhawks	12:30 PM Sunday	NBC	1.0
The Capitals and Blackhawks have each set multiple ratings records locally this season, but will that translate to a larger national audience? Last year’s comparable Flyers/Rangers tilt drew a 0.8.
Golf (M)	WGC-CA Championship, Third Round	2 PM Saturday	NBC	1.3
Golf (M)	WGC-CA Championship, Final Round	3 PM Sunday	NBC	1.7
Expect big declines for the WGC-CA Championship on NBC. Last year’s tournament, which featured Tiger Woods, drew a 1.9 on Saturday and a hefty 3.4 on Sunday. The 2008 tournament, which also featured Woods, drew ratings of 1.9 and 3.0. This year’s numbers should be tiny by comparison.