Weekend Ratings Predictions

First, the results of last week’s predictions

Sport	Game/Event	Net	Prediction	Rating
Golf (M)	The Masters, Third Round	CBS	7.4	6.7
CBS drew a 6.7 final rating for third round coverage of The Masters last Saturday, up 26% from last year (5.3), up 20% from 2008 (5.6), and the highest rating for third-round coverage since ’01.
Golf (M)	The Masters, Final Round	CBS	15.3	10.7
Final round coverage of The Masters drew a 10.7 final rating on CBS last Sunday, up 29% from last year (8.3), up 24% from 2008 (8.6), and the highest rating for final round coverage of the event since ’01. The 10.7 rating is the third-highest for The Masters since ’82.
NBA	Cavaliers/Magic	ABC	1.4	1.4
Opposite The Masters, ABC drew a 1.4 final rating for Cavaliers/Magic last Sunday, down 7% from last year’s Mavericks/Hornets game (1.5), and the second-lowest rating of the regular season for an NBA game on ABC.
NBA	Trail Blazers/Lakers	ABC	1.6	1.7
The Trail Blazers’ win over the Lakers drew a 1.7 final rating on ABC last Sunday, down 15% from Celtics/Cavaliers last year (2.0), and the lowest rated national Laker game on broadcast television since at least 1991.
MLB	Yankees/Rays (or other regional action)	FOX	1.6	1.6
The season debut of baseball on FOX drew a 1.6 final rating last Saturday — down 16% from last year (2.4), and the lowest rated MLB on FOX season opener since the network moved the start of its regular season coverage from May to April.
NASCAR	Subway Fresh Fit 600	FOX	3.9	3.7
Last Saturday’s Subway Fresh Fit 600 drew a 3.7 final rating on FOX, up 3% from last year (3.6), but down 16% from 2008 (4.4). Saturday’s race was the first NASCAR race of 2010 to have an increase in ratings — but it was also the second-lowest rated race ever on FOX.
NHL	Bruins/Capitals	NBC	0.7	0.7
The regular season finale of the NHL on NBC drew a 0.7 final rating last Sunday. The last four NHL telecasts of the season on NBC drew less than a 1.0 rating.
Other	ESPN Sports Saturday	ABC	0.7	0.3
The second edition of ESPN Sports Saturday drew an extremely low 0.3 final rating on ABC last Saturday, less than half of the rating the debut edition drew a week earlier (0.8).

This week’s predictions:

Sport	Game/Event	Date/Time	Net	Prediction
NBA	Bulls/Cavaliers Game 1	3 PM Saturday	ABC	2.2
The 2010 NBA Playoffs get underway on Saturday with LeBron James and the Cavaliers hosting the #3 market Chicago Bulls. Look for the ratings to hold steady with last year’s comparable Pistons/Cavaliers Game 1 (2.2).
NBA	Bucks/Hawks Game 1	5:30 PM Saturday	ESPN	1.4
Do not expect very big numbers for this low-profile matchup of overlooked East teams. There was no game in the comparable timeslot last year.
NBA	Heat/Celtics Game 1	8 PM Saturday	ESPN	2.3
The Celtics may be struggling, but they can still move the needle. Against superstar Dwyane Wade of the Heat, expect their playoff opener to draw good numbers on Saturday night. Mavericks/Spurs Game 1 drew a 1.7 rating last year.
NBA	Jazz/Nuggets Game 1	10:30 PM Saturday	ESPN	2.2
Jazz/Nuggets may not be a series made for Madison Avenue, but it figures to attract solid numbers nonetheless. Last year’s Rockets/Blazers Game 1 drew a 2.1 rating.
NBA	Thunder/Lakers Game 1	3 PM Sunday	ABC	3.7
Oklahoma City may be one of the smallest TV markets in the NBA, but Kevin Durant‘s starpower can more than make up for that. Durant’s playoff debut against the always high-profile Lakers should be a good draw for ABC. Jazz/Lakers Game 1 drew a 3.2 rating last year; Nuggets/Lakers Game 1 drew a 3.5 in ’08.
NBA	Bobcats/Magic Game 1	5:30 PM Sunday	TNT	2.0
Thanks an NBA Finals appearance, the Magic are much higher on the casual fan’s radar than they were a year ago. With that in mind, expect their playoff opener against the Bobcats to see a modest boost in ratings over 76ers/Magic Game 1 last year (1.8).
NBA	Spurs/Mavericks Game 1	8 PM Sunday	TNT	2.1
For the second consecutive year — and the fifth time since ’01 — the Mavericks will battle the Spurs in the playoffs. Sunday’s Game 1 between the teams should finish ahead of their playoff opener last year (1.7), but behind last year’s comparable Heat/Hawks Game 1 (2.2)
NBA	Trail Blazers/Suns Game 1	10:30 PM Sunday	TNT	1.9
With Brandon Roy the latest Trail Blazer sidelined due to injury, this series does not appear to have much juice. Expect a small decline compared to last year’s Hornets/Nuggets Game 1 (2.0).
NHL	Bruins/Sabres Game 2	1 PM Saturday	NBC	0.9
With Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin playing Canadian teams, NBC begins its coverage of the 2010 Stanley Cup Playoffs with Bruins/Sabres matchup that would ordinarily be relegated to cable. That said, even though Saturday’s matchup is not exactly high-profile, it should still draw a better rating than last year’s comparable Rangers/Capitals Game 2 (0.7).
NHL	Coyotes/Red Wings Game 3	3 PM Sunday	NBC	1.2
The presence of the Red Wings should guarantee this game a fairly decent rating; last year’s Penguins/Flyers Game 3 drew a 1.3.
MLB	Mets/Cardinals (61%), Giants/Dodgers (22%) or White Sox/Indians (16%)	4 PM Saturday	FOX	2.0
After facing The Masters last week, baseball on FOX goes head-to-head with the NBA Playoffs this week. Luckily for FOX, the first round of the playoffs is not quite as formidable as the third round of The Masters. Expect Saturday’s rating to increase from last week’s 1.6 — but decrease from last year’s 2.4.
MMA	Strikeforce	9 PM Saturday	CBS	2.4
Mixed martial arts returns to CBS on Saturday night. The last Strikeforce bout on CBS drew a 2.5 rating opposite college football on ABC and ESPN. Opposite the NBA Playoffs, look for similiar numbers.
NASCAR	Samsung Mobile 500	3 PM Sunday	FOX	4.9
NASCAR returns to Sunday afternoon for the first time since March 21. Was the rare increase in ratings for last week’s race an anomaly or the start of a trend? Last year’s comparable race drew a 4.7; the previous year’s race drew a 5.4.
Golf (M)	Verizon Heritage, Third Round	3 PM Saturday	CBS	1.0
Golf (M)	Verizon Heritage, Final Round	3 PM Sunday	CBS	1.6
Do not expect any post-Masters ‘bump’ for the PGA Tour. Last year’s Verizon Heritage drew a 0.9 on Saturday and a 1.7 on Sunday.

(Sports Business Daily)

Jon Lewis has been covering the sports media industry on a daily basis since 2006 as the founder and main writer of Sports Media Watch. You can contact him here or on the social media websites X (Twitter) or Bluesky.