Weekend Ratings Predictions

First, the results of last week’s predictions

Sport	Game/Event	Net	Prediction	Rating
NBA	Bulls/Cavaliers Game 1	ABC	2.2	2.5
The Cavaliers’ Game 1 win over the Bulls last Saturday drew a 2.5 final rating on ABC, up 14% from Pistons/Cavaliers Game 1 last year (2.2), but down 22% from Suns/Spurs Game 1 in ’08 (3.2).
NBA	Bucks/Hawks Game 1	ESPN	1.4	1.5
Game 1 between the Bucks and Hawks drew a 1.5 U.S. rating on ESPN last Saturday, making the game the lowest rated of the eight NBA Playoff games last weekend.
NBA	Heat/Celtics Game 1	ESPN	2.3	2.5
The Celtics’ Game 1 win over the Heat drew a 2.5 U.S. rating on ESPN, up 47% from Mavericks/Spurs Game 1 last year (1.7) and up 19% from Mavericks/Hornets Game 1 in ’08 (2.1).
NBA	Jazz/Nuggets Game 1	ESPN	2.2	1.9
Jazz/Nuggets Game 1 drew a 1.9 U.S. rating on ESPN last Saturday night, down 10% from both Rockets/Blazers Game 1 last year (2.1) and Jazz/Rockets Game 1 in ’08 (2.1).
NBA	Thunder/Lakers Game 1	ABC	3.7	3.3
ABC drew a 3.3 final rating for last Sunday’s Thunder/Lakers Game 1, up a tick from Jazz/Lakers Game 1 last year (3.3), but down 6% from Nuggets/Lakers Game 1 two years ago (3.5).
NBA	Bobcats/Magic Game 1	TNT	2.0	2.0
The opening game of the Bobcats/Magic series drew a 2.0 U.S. rating on TNT last Sunday, up 11% from 76ers/Magic Game 1 last year (1.8) and even with 76ers/Pistons in 2008 (2.0).
NBA	Spurs/Mavericks Game 1	TNT	2.1	2.5
TNT drew a 2.5 U.S. rating for the Mavericks’ Game 1 win over the Spurs, up 14% from both last year’s Heat/Hawks Game 1 (2.2), and Hawks/Celtics Game 1 in ’08 (2.2).
NBA	Trail Blazers/Suns Game 1	TNT	1.9	2.0
Last Sunday’s Game 1 between the Trail Blazers and Suns drew a 2.0 U.S. rating on TNT, flat compared to Hornets/Nuggets Game 1 last year (2.0). There was game in the comparable timeslot in ’08.
NHL	Bruins/Sabres Game 2	NBC	0.9	1.0
NBC drew a 1.0 final rating for Game 2 between the Bruins and Sabres last Saturday, up 43% from Rangers/Capitals Game 2 last year (0.7) and up 25% from Predators/Red Wings Game 2 in ’08 (0.8).
NHL	Coyotes/Red Wings Game 3	NBC	1.2	1.3
The 1.3 final rating for last Sunday’s Coyotes/Red Wings Game 3 was even with Penguins/Flyers Game 3 last year (1.3), and up 63% from Flyers/Capitals Game 2 two years ago (0.8).
MLB	Mets/Cardinals (61%), Giants/Dodgers (22%) or White Sox/Indians (16%)	FOX	2.0	2.4
Regional MLB action, featuring the Mets’ 20-inning win over the Cardinals in most markets, drew a 2.4 final rating on FOX last Saturday — even with last year, when the network aired the Yankees’ 22-4 loss to the Indians.
MMA	Strikeforce	CBS	2.4	1.8
The latest edition of CBS Saturday Night Fights drew a 1.8 final rating last Saturday, down 28% from the previous telecast in November (2.5).
NASCAR	Samsung Mobile 500	FOX	4.9	—
Last Sunday’s NASCAR Samsung Mobile 500 was postponed due to rain.
Golf (M)	Verizon Heritage, Third Round	CBS	1.0	1.0
Golf (M)	Verizon Heritage, Final Round	CBS	1.6	1.9
Ratings for third and final round coverage of the Verizon Heritage were up 11% and 12%, respectively.

This week’s predictions:

Sport	Game/Event	Date/Time	Net	Prediction
NBA	Magic/Bobcats Game 3	2 PM Saturday	TNT	1.3
After an ugly Game 2, which drew the lowest rating of the playoffs so far (1.4), the Magic/Bobcats series does not appear to have much momentum. In an earlier timeslot last year, ESPN drew a 1.6 rating for Nuggets/Hornets Game 3.
NBA	Suns/Trail Blazers Game 4	4:30 PM Saturday	TNT	1.6
Without much competition from the NFL Draft, look for Saturday’s Suns/Trail Blazers Game 4 to see a solid increase in ratings compared to Spurs/Mavericks Game 4 last year (1.1) — which aired directly opposite the first round of the draft.
NBA	Hawks/Bucks Game 3	7 PM Saturday	ESPN	1.7
Like Magic/Bobcats, the Hawks/Bucks series is far from a blockbuster. That said, the lack of NFL Draft competition should help the ratings improve compared to last year’s Hawks/Heat Game 3 on TNT (1.2).
NBA	Lakers/Thunder Game 4	9:30 PM Saturday	ESPN	2.6
After a Game 3 thriller, look for Game 4 between the defending champion Lakers and the upstart Thunder to draw good numbers for ESPN. Last year’s comparable Lakers/Jazz Game 4 drew a 2.2.
NBA	Celtics/Heat Game 4	1 PM Sunday	ABC	2.3
Paul Pierce‘s Game 3 buzzer beater was great for the Celtics — but not so great for ABC, which is now saddled with a 3-0 series. Expect Sunday’s Celtics/Heat Game 4 to see a significant decline in ratings compared to last year ‘s Celtics/Bulls Game 4, which went to double-overtime (3.3).
NBA	Cavaliers/Bulls Game 4	3:30 PM Sunday	ABC	3.4
Excluding Thursday’s Game 3, which aired opposite the NFL Draft, this series has drawn solid numbers so far. With the Bulls’ Game 3 win making things competitive, look for Sunday’s Game 4 to draw fairly well. Last year’s Cavaliers/Pistons Game 4, which had the benefit of a lead-in by Celtics/Bulls, drew a 3.5 rating.
NBA	Mavericks/Spurs Game 4	7 PM Sunday	TNT	2.6
This Spurs/Mavericks series has been a much better draw than their meeting last season. Look for Sunday’s Game 4 to easily outdraw last year’s comparable Magic/76ers game (1.5).
NBA	Nuggets/Jazz Game 4	9:30 PM Sunday	TNT	2.1
The last NBA Playoff game of the weekend features the Nuggets trying to avoid a 3-1 deficit to the undermanned Jazz. Look for the ratings to hold steady compared to last year’s Trail Blazers/Rockets game (2.1).
NHL	Predators/Blackhawks Game 5	3 PM Saturday	NBC	1.2
The Stanley Cup Playoffs continue on NBC with Saturday’s Predators/Blackhawks Game 5. The Blackhawks have proven to be a strong draw locally, but can they pull in viewers nationally? Last year’s Penguins/Flyers Game 6 drew a 1.0.
NHL	Coyotes/Red Wings Game 6	2 PM Saturday	NBC	1.1
Ratings should soar for the Red Wings’ potential series-clincher against the Coyotes. Last year’s comparable Capitals/Rangers Game 6 drew a terrible 0.7.
NASCAR	Aaron’s 499	1 PM Sunday	FOX	4.8
Weather permitting, NASCAR returns to Sunday afternoon for the first time in over a month with the Aaron’s 499 from Talladega. Last year’s race drew a 5.0 rating, the fifth-highest rating of the season for any NASCAR race. All but one regularly scheduled NASCAR race this season has had a decline in ratings.
MLB	Yankees/Angels (86%) or Mariners/White Sox (13%)	4 PM Saturday	FOX	2.3
Though Saturday’s rematch of the 2009 ALCS should do well on FOX, expect the ratings to fall short of last year’s comparable telecast — which featured the Yankees against the Red Sox (2.7).
NFL	NFL Draft, Rounds 4-7	10 AM Saturday	ESPN	1.4
After two nights of action, one would expect that interest in the third and final day of the NFL Draft would be relatively low — especially since the most interesting rounds are long over. Still, Saturday’s coverage of the Draft could very well outdraw Magic/Bobcats on TNT and Predators/Blackhawks on NBC.
Golf (M)	Zurich Classic of New Orleans, Third Round	3 PM Saturday	CBS	1.0
Golf (M)	Zurich Classic of New Orleans, Final Round	3 PM Sunday	CBS	1.7
The last two golf tournaments — The Masters and the Verizon Heritage — both saw double-digit increases in third and final round ratings. Will the Zurich Classic of New Orleans make it three in a row? Last year’s coverage drew a 0.9 on Saturday and a 1.5 on Sunday.

(Sports Business Daily)

Jon Lewis has been covering the sports media industry on a daily basis since 2006 as the founder and main writer of Sports Media Watch. You can contact him here or on the social media websites X (Twitter) or Bluesky.