First, the results of last week’s predictions
| Sport | Game/Event | Net |
Prediction
|
Rating
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | Bulls/Cavaliers Game 1 | ABC |
2.2
|
2.5
|
| The Cavaliers’ Game 1 win over the Bulls last Saturday drew a 2.5 final rating on ABC, up 14% from Pistons/Cavaliers Game 1 last year (2.2), but down 22% from Suns/Spurs Game 1 in ’08 (3.2). | ||||
| NBA | Bucks/Hawks Game 1 | ESPN |
1.4
|
1.5
|
| Game 1 between the Bucks and Hawks drew a 1.5 U.S. rating on ESPN last Saturday, making the game the lowest rated of the eight NBA Playoff games last weekend. | ||||
| NBA | Heat/Celtics Game 1 | ESPN |
2.3
|
2.5
|
| The Celtics’ Game 1 win over the Heat drew a 2.5 U.S. rating on ESPN, up 47% from Mavericks/Spurs Game 1 last year (1.7) and up 19% from Mavericks/Hornets Game 1 in ’08 (2.1). | ||||
| NBA | Jazz/Nuggets Game 1 | ESPN |
2.2
|
1.9
|
| Jazz/Nuggets Game 1 drew a 1.9 U.S. rating on ESPN last Saturday night, down 10% from both Rockets/Blazers Game 1 last year (2.1) and Jazz/Rockets Game 1 in ’08 (2.1). | ||||
| NBA | Thunder/Lakers Game 1 | ABC |
3.7
|
3.3
|
| ABC drew a 3.3 final rating for last Sunday’s Thunder/Lakers Game 1, up a tick from Jazz/Lakers Game 1 last year (3.3), but down 6% from Nuggets/Lakers Game 1 two years ago (3.5). | ||||
| NBA | Bobcats/Magic Game 1 | TNT |
2.0
|
2.0
|
| The opening game of the Bobcats/Magic series drew a 2.0 U.S. rating on TNT last Sunday, up 11% from 76ers/Magic Game 1 last year (1.8) and even with 76ers/Pistons in 2008 (2.0). | ||||
| NBA | Spurs/Mavericks Game 1 | TNT |
2.1
|
2.5
|
| TNT drew a 2.5 U.S. rating for the Mavericks’ Game 1 win over the Spurs, up 14% from both last year’s Heat/Hawks Game 1 (2.2), and Hawks/Celtics Game 1 in ’08 (2.2). | ||||
| NBA | Trail Blazers/Suns Game 1 | TNT |
1.9
|
2.0
|
| Last Sunday’s Game 1 between the Trail Blazers and Suns drew a 2.0 U.S. rating on TNT, flat compared to Hornets/Nuggets Game 1 last year (2.0). There was game in the comparable timeslot in ’08. | ||||
| NHL | Bruins/Sabres Game 2 | NBC |
0.9
|
1.0
|
| NBC drew a 1.0 final rating for Game 2 between the Bruins and Sabres last Saturday, up 43% from Rangers/Capitals Game 2 last year (0.7) and up 25% from Predators/Red Wings Game 2 in ’08 (0.8). | ||||
| NHL | Coyotes/Red Wings Game 3 | NBC |
1.2
|
1.3
|
| The 1.3 final rating for last Sunday’s Coyotes/Red Wings Game 3 was even with Penguins/Flyers Game 3 last year (1.3), and up 63% from Flyers/Capitals Game 2 two years ago (0.8). | ||||
| MLB | Mets/Cardinals (61%), Giants/Dodgers (22%) or White Sox/Indians (16%) | FOX |
2.0
|
2.4
|
| Regional MLB action, featuring the Mets’ 20-inning win over the Cardinals in most markets, drew a 2.4 final rating on FOX last Saturday — even with last year, when the network aired the Yankees’ 22-4 loss to the Indians. | ||||
| MMA | Strikeforce | CBS |
2.4
|
1.8
|
| The latest edition of CBS Saturday Night Fights drew a 1.8 final rating last Saturday, down 28% from the previous telecast in November (2.5). | ||||
| NASCAR | Samsung Mobile 500 | FOX |
4.9
|
—
|
| Last Sunday’s NASCAR Samsung Mobile 500 was postponed due to rain. | ||||
| Golf (M) | Verizon Heritage, Third Round | CBS |
1.0
|
1.0
|
| Verizon Heritage, Final Round |
1.6
|
1.9
|
||
| Ratings for third and final round coverage of the Verizon Heritage were up 11% and 12%, respectively. | ||||
This week’s predictions:
| Sport | Game/Event | Date/Time | Net | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | Magic/Bobcats Game 3 | 2 PM Saturday | TNT |
1.3
|
| After an ugly Game 2, which drew the lowest rating of the playoffs so far (1.4), the Magic/Bobcats series does not appear to have much momentum. In an earlier timeslot last year, ESPN drew a 1.6 rating for Nuggets/Hornets Game 3. | ||||
| NBA | Suns/Trail Blazers Game 4 | 4:30 PM Saturday | TNT |
1.6
|
| Without much competition from the NFL Draft, look for Saturday’s Suns/Trail Blazers Game 4 to see a solid increase in ratings compared to Spurs/Mavericks Game 4 last year (1.1) — which aired directly opposite the first round of the draft. | ||||
| NBA | Hawks/Bucks Game 3 | 7 PM Saturday | ESPN |
1.7
|
| Like Magic/Bobcats, the Hawks/Bucks series is far from a blockbuster. That said, the lack of NFL Draft competition should help the ratings improve compared to last year’s Hawks/Heat Game 3 on TNT (1.2). | ||||
| NBA | Lakers/Thunder Game 4 | 9:30 PM Saturday | ESPN |
2.6
|
| After a Game 3 thriller, look for Game 4 between the defending champion Lakers and the upstart Thunder to draw good numbers for ESPN. Last year’s comparable Lakers/Jazz Game 4 drew a 2.2. | ||||
| NBA | Celtics/Heat Game 4 | 1 PM Sunday | ABC |
2.3
|
| Paul Pierce‘s Game 3 buzzer beater was great for the Celtics — but not so great for ABC, which is now saddled with a 3-0 series. Expect Sunday’s Celtics/Heat Game 4 to see a significant decline in ratings compared to last year ‘s Celtics/Bulls Game 4, which went to double-overtime (3.3). |
||||
| NBA | Cavaliers/Bulls Game 4 | 3:30 PM Sunday | ABC |
3.4
|
| Excluding Thursday’s Game 3, which aired opposite the NFL Draft, this series has drawn solid numbers so far. With the Bulls’ Game 3 win making things competitive, look for Sunday’s Game 4 to draw fairly well. Last year’s Cavaliers/Pistons Game 4, which had the benefit of a lead-in by Celtics/Bulls, drew a 3.5 rating. | ||||
| NBA | Mavericks/Spurs Game 4 | 7 PM Sunday | TNT |
2.6
|
| This Spurs/Mavericks series has been a much better draw than their meeting last season. Look for Sunday’s Game 4 to easily outdraw last year’s comparable Magic/76ers game (1.5). | ||||
| NBA | Nuggets/Jazz Game 4 | 9:30 PM Sunday | TNT |
2.1
|
| The last NBA Playoff game of the weekend features the Nuggets trying to avoid a 3-1 deficit to the undermanned Jazz. Look for the ratings to hold steady compared to last year’s Trail Blazers/Rockets game (2.1). | ||||
| NHL | Predators/Blackhawks Game 5 | 3 PM Saturday | NBC |
1.2
|
| The Stanley Cup Playoffs continue on NBC with Saturday’s Predators/Blackhawks Game 5. The Blackhawks have proven to be a strong draw locally, but can they pull in viewers nationally? Last year’s Penguins/Flyers Game 6 drew a 1.0. | ||||
| NHL | Coyotes/Red Wings Game 6 | 2 PM Saturday | NBC |
1.1
|
| Ratings should soar for the Red Wings’ potential series-clincher against the Coyotes. Last year’s comparable Capitals/Rangers Game 6 drew a terrible 0.7. | ||||
| NASCAR | Aaron’s 499 | 1 PM Sunday | FOX |
4.8
|
| Weather permitting, NASCAR returns to Sunday afternoon for the first time in over a month with the Aaron’s 499 from Talladega. Last year’s race drew a 5.0 rating, the fifth-highest rating of the season for any NASCAR race. All but one regularly scheduled NASCAR race this season has had a decline in ratings. | ||||
| MLB | Yankees/Angels (86%) or Mariners/White Sox (13%) | 4 PM Saturday | FOX |
2.3
|
| Though Saturday’s rematch of the 2009 ALCS should do well on FOX, expect the ratings to fall short of last year’s comparable telecast — which featured the Yankees against the Red Sox (2.7). | ||||
| NFL | NFL Draft, Rounds 4-7 | 10 AM Saturday | ESPN |
1.4
|
| After two nights of action, one would expect that interest in the third and final day of the NFL Draft would be relatively low — especially since the most interesting rounds are long over. Still, Saturday’s coverage of the Draft could very well outdraw Magic/Bobcats on TNT and Predators/Blackhawks on NBC. | ||||
| Golf (M) | Zurich Classic of New Orleans, Third Round | 3 PM Saturday | CBS |
1.0
|
| Zurich Classic of New Orleans, Final Round | 3 PM Sunday |
1.7
|
||
| The last two golf tournaments — The Masters and the Verizon Heritage — both saw double-digit increases in third and final round ratings. Will the Zurich Classic of New Orleans make it three in a row? Last year’s coverage drew a 0.9 on Saturday and a 1.5 on Sunday. | ||||
