First, the results of last week’s predictions
| Sport | Game/Event | Net |
Prediction
|
Rating
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horse Racing | Kentucky Derby (race portion) | NBC |
10.1
|
9.8
|
| The race segment of the 2010 Kentucky Derby drew a 9.8 final rating on NBC last Saturday, even with last year (9.8) and up 11% from 2008 (8.8). The 9.8 rating is tied as the highest for the event since ’92. | ||||
| NBA | Celtics/Cavaliers Game 1 | TNT |
3.6
|
3.4
|
| The Cavaliers’ Game 1 win over the Celtics last Saturday night drew a 3.4 U.S. rating on TNT, down 23% from Bulls/Celtics Game 7 last year (4.4), but up a whopping 79% from Magic/Pistons Game 1 two years ago (1.9). | ||||
| NBA | Bucks/Hawks Game 7 | ABC |
2.3
|
2.1
|
| The finale of the Bucks/Hawks series drew a mere 2.1 final rating on ABC last Sunday, down 19% from Heat/Hawks Game 7 last year (2.6) and down 40% from Hawks/Celtics Game 7 in ’08 (3.5). The 2.1 rating is tied as the lowest for an NBA Playoff game on ABC since the network resumed airing games in ’02. | ||||
| NBA | Jazz/Lakers Game 1 | ABC |
3.7
|
3.8
|
| Game 1 of the Jazz/Lakers series drew a 3.8 final rating on ABC last Sunday, up 19% from Mavericks/Nuggets last year (3.2), but down 7% from Jazz/Lakers Game 1 in ’08 (4.1). | ||||
| NHL | Flyers/Bruins Game 1 | NBC |
1.1
|
1.1
|
| The Bruins’ Game 1 win over the Flyers drew a 1.1 final rating on NBC last Saturday, down 8% from Penguins/Capitals Game 1 last year (1.2), but up 57% from Avalanche/Red Wings Game 2 in ’08 (0.7) | ||||
| NHL | Canadiens/Penguins Game 2 | NBC |
1.1
|
1.1
|
| NBC drew a 1.1 final rating for Canadiens/Penguins Game 2 last Sunday, down 15% from Ducks/Red Wings Game 2 in ’08, but up 10% from Rangers/Penguins in ’08 (1.0). | ||||
| NASCAR | Heath Calhoun 400 | FOX |
3.8
|
3.7
|
| Last week’s Heath Calhoun 400 drew a 3.7 final rating, down 8% from last year, down 18% from 2008 and the lowest rating for the race since it moved to broadcast in 2007. | ||||
| MLB | Mets/Phillies (70%), Astros/Braves (19%) or Rangers/Mariners (10%) | FOX |
1.6
|
1.4
|
| FOX drew a 1.4 final rating for regional MLB coverage last Saturday, down 13% from last year and the lowest rating of the young season. | ||||
| Golf (M) | Quail Hollow Championship, Third Round | CBS |
1.3
|
1.3
|
| Quail Hollow Championship, Final Round |
1.9
|
2.2
|
||
| Ratings for the Quail Hollow Championship were down 41% on both Saturday and Sunday. | ||||
| IRL | RoadRunner Turbo Indy 300 | ABC |
0.8
|
0.7
|
| The 0.7 final rating for last Saturday’s IRL RoadRunner Turbo Indy 300 is even with ABC’s first non-Indy IRL race last year. | ||||
This week’s predictions:
| Sport | Game/Event | Date/Time | Net | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | Magic/Hawks Game 3 | 5 PM Saturday | ESPN | 1.8 |
| The first two games of the Magic/Hawks series have been the two lowest rated of the second round, and by a fairly decent margin. Expect more of the same for Saturday’s Game 3. Last year’s comparable Nuggets/Mavericks Game 3 drew a 2.0. | ||||
| NBA | Lakers/Jazz Game 3 | 8:15 PM Saturday | ABC | 3.7 |
| For only the second time in the past five years, the ABC will put the Lakers in primetime prior to the NBA Finals. While the Lakers/Jazz Game 3 will not draw anywhere close to the numbers of the Lakers’ last primetime ABC appearance (5.4 against the Nuggets last year), it should have little trouble topping last year’s comparable Cavaliers/Hawks Game 3 (3.2). | ||||
| NBA | Cavaliers/Celtics Game 4 | 3:30 PM Sunday | ABC | 3.6 |
| Back-to-back blowouts do not typically make for much drama. That said, the Cavaliers/Celtics series has been the highest rated of the second round, and the fact that the series is still 2-1 should keep viewers interested. Last year’s Lakers/Rockets Game 4 set the bar low with a 3.2 rating. | ||||
| NBA | Suns/Spurs Game 4 | 8 PM Sunday | TNT | 2.8 |
| A #3 seed having a 3-0 lead on a #7 seed may not seem like much in the drama department. However, the Suns’ 3-0 lead on the Spurs may be as surprising as anything in this postseason, considering the severely one-sided rivalry between the teams. Will that translate into big numbers for Sunday’s Game 4? Last year’s Celtics/Magic Game 4 drew a 3.2. | ||||
| MLB | Yankees/Red Sox (82%) or Braves/Phillies (17%) | 3 PM Saturday | FOX | 2.9 |
| The latest chapter of the Yankees/Red Sox rivalry may be just what the doctor ordered for FOX, whose MLB coverage has failed to draw a 2.0 rating in 32 of the last 50 telecasts. The last two times the rivals played on FOX, ratings have been mediocre — with a 2.3 for their August ’09 meeting and a 2.1 for their matchup in September. Expect better numbers on Saturday. | ||||
| NASCAR | Southern 500 | 7 PM Saturday | FOX | 3.8 |
| Five of the six lowest rated NASCAR races ever on FOX have taken place on Saturday nights within the past two seasons. One of those five is last year’s Southern 500, which drew a 4.0 rating. Expect another decline this year, especially coming off a decline last Saturday night’s Heath Calhoun 400. | ||||
| Golf (M) | The Players Championship, Third Round | 2 PM Saturday | NBC | 2.8 |
| The Players Championship, Final Round | 2 PM Sunday | 4.0 | ||
| The Players Championship marks the return of Tiger Woods to broadcast television since last month’s The Masters. Woods’ post-scandal presence gave a huge lift to The Masters; will The Players Championship benefit as well? Last year, third and final round coverage drew ratings of 2.6 and 3.6, respectively; final round ratings have topped a 3.0 in 11 of the past 13 years. | ||||
