Ratings predictions for this weekend’s sporting events, including the NASCAR Pennsylvania 500 and X Games 16.
First, the results of last week’s predictions
| Sport | Game/Event | Net |
Prediction
|
Rating
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NASCAR | Brickyard 400 | ESPN |
3.8
|
3.6
|
| ESPN drew a 3.6 U.S. rating for last Sunday’s NASCAR Brickyard 400, down 12% from last year (4.1), down 16% from 2008 (4.3) and the lowest rating ever for the event. | ||||
| MLB | Mets/Dodgers (51%), Rockies/Phillies (24%) or White Sox/Athletics (24%) | FOX |
1.8
|
1.4
|
| Regional MLB action featuring Mets/Dodgers drew a 1.4 final rating on FOX last Saturday, down 26% from coverage featuring Cardinals/Phillies last year and tied as the lowest rating of the season for MLB coverage on the network. | ||||
| Golf (M) | RBC Canadian Open, Third Round | CBS |
0.9
|
0.8
|
| RBC Canadian Open, Final Round |
1.3
|
1.2
|
||
| Compared to 2008 (last year’s tournament was affected by rain), ratings for Saturday and Sunday coverage of the RBC Canadian Open were down 11% and 14%, respectively. | ||||
| Basketball | U.S. Men’s National Team, Blue vs. White | ESPN2 |
0.5
|
—
|
| U.S. HH ratings for last Saturday’s U.S. Men’s National Team Blue vs. White scrimmage were not immediately available. | ||||
| Formula 1 | Grand Prix of Germany (taped) | FOX |
0.7
|
0.6
|
| Taped coverage of the Formula 1 Grand Prix of Germany drew a 0.6 final rating on FOX last Sunday, tied as the network’s lowest F1 rating of the season. | ||||
This week’s predictions:
| Sport | Game/Event | Day/Time | Net | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NASCAR | Pennsylvania 500 | 1 PM Sunday | ESPN | 3.3 |
| Coming off of record low numbers for the Brickyard 400, NASCAR returns to ESPN with the Pennsylvania 500. So far this season, 13 of the 18 regularly scheduled NASCAR races have had declines in ratings compared to last year. This week’s race will buck the trend by default; last year’s race was postponed due to rain. The 2008 race drew a 3.8 U.S. rating. | ||||
| Golf (W) | Women’s British Open, Third Round | 10 AM Saturday | ESPN | 0.4 |
| Women’s British Open, Final Round | 10 AM Sunday | 0.7 | ||
| The Women’s British Open moves to cable this year, and the hope is that the event can avoid the declines suffered by the Men’s British Open earlier weeks earlier. Last year’s Women’s British Open on ABC set the bar extremely low (0.5 on Saturday and a 0.8 on Sunday); the numbers were similarly tiny the previous year (0.6 on both days). | ||||
| MLB | Braves/Reds (42%), Tigers/Red Sox (37%) or Dodgers/Giants (20%) | 4 PM Saturday | FOX |
1.5
|
| After two weeks of halfway decent numbers, baseball on FOX dropped back to mediocrity last week. Do not expect the numbers to bounce back this week. Last year, coverage featuring Yankees/White Sox drew a 1.8. | ||||
| Extreme | X Games 16 | 7 PM Saturday | ESPN | 0.8 |
| In each of the past two years, Saturday night coverage of the summer X Games has drawn a 0.8 U.S. rating on ESPN. Look for more of the same this year. | ||||
