The NBA Playoffs again highlights the weekend’s ratings forecast. Also on tap, the NHL Playoffs, NASCAR and spring football.
First, the Results of Last Week’s Predictions
— NBA Playoffs: Pacers-Cavs Game 1. Prediction: 2.8; final rating: 2.5.
— NBA Playoffs: Blazers-Warriors Game 1. Prediction: 3.6; final rating: 3.7.
— NBA Playoffs: Bulls-Celtics & Thunder-Rockets. Predictions: 2.2 and 2.7; final ratings: 2.9 and 3.0.
— Stanley Cup Playoffs: Predators-Blackhawks Game 2. Prediction: 1.4; final rating: 0.9.
— MLB Sunday Night Baseball: Cardinals-Yankees. Prediction: 1.2; final rating: 1.1.
— F1: Bahrain. Prediction: 0.2; final rating: 0.25.
This Week’s Predictions (All Times ET)
NBA Playoffs: Rockets-Thunder Game 4 (3:30 PM Sunday, ABC)
- The NBA’s glamour matchup of MVP candidates has mostly lived up to its billing, with Games 2 and 3 making up for a Game 1 rout. Ratings have also lived up to expectations, with the series delivering two of the six largest playoff audiences through Thursday’s play (19 telecasts total). Expect Sunday’s Game 4 to do well on ABC, though it will be a tall task to match last year’s 4.5 for Warriors-Rockets — still tied as the highest rated first round game since 2004. Prediction: 4.2.
NBA Playoffs: Cavaliers-Pacers Game 4 (1 PM Sunday, ABC)
- Cavaliers-Pacers has been as dramatic as a 3-0 series can get, with Cleveland barely holding on to win Games 1 and 2 and then mounting a historic comeback to win Game 3. While the prospect of a sweep is never good for ratings, the series has been tightly-contested enough that Game 4 should pull solid numbers. At the very least, last year’s Spurs-Grizzlies Game 4 set such a low bar (2.3) that ratings should increase by default. Prediction: 2.9.
NBA Playoffs: Warriors-Blazers Game 3 (10:30 PM Saturday, ESPN)
- ESPN did not get a single Warriors playoff game last year, missing out on one of the most dramatic playoff runs in league history. No such problem this year, with ESPN getting Saturday’s Warriors-Blazers Game 3 and — presumably — at least four Warriors games in the Western Conference Finals. Expect Saturday’s game to easily top last year’s 1.8 for Clippers-Blazers. Prediction: 2.8.
Stanley Cup Playoffs: Canadiens-Rangers Game 6 (8 PM Saturday, NBC)
- While the Stanley Cup Playoffs is off to a hot start on cable, last weekend’s coverage on NBC put up underwhelming numbers. None of the network’s three games managed a 1.0 rating, extending a dubious streak: excluding the All-Star Game, none of its 15 indoor games this season has cracked the 1.0 mark. With the Blackhawks’ early exit from the playoffs, the network’s primetime game this week pits the Canadiens against the Rangers. Given Canadian teams have not been a drag on ratings so far this postseason, perhaps Saturday’s game will be the first to hit TV sports’ Mendoza line. Prediction: 1.1.
Stanley Cup Playoffs: Capitals-Maple Leafs Game 6 (7 PM Sunday, NBCSN)
- Washington-Toronto has been the best series of the first round, and Sunday’s Game 6 figures to deliver blockbuster numbers — by NBCSN standards — unopposed on a Sunday night. Panthers-Islanders had a 0.4 rating in the same window last year and Canadiens-Senators a 0.6 in 2015. Prediction: 0.7.
NASCAR Cup Series: Bristol (2 PM Sunday, FOX)
- Not a single Cup Series race this season has managed an increase in ratings, with two races flat (Daytona and Texas) and the other five down. There is no reason to believe that Bristol will break the trend, but you never know. Last year’s race had a 3.4, the lowest for the spring edition of the race since at least 1998. Prediction: 3.1.
College football: Alabama spring game (3 PM Saturday, ESPN)
- Alabama’s spring football game usually does well — for a preseason scrimmage — with last year’s game netting a 0.55 rating. With the Tide coming off a stinging loss in the national championship, there may be more intrigue than usual. On the other hand, this year’s game lacks a particularly strong lead-in (last year, the game aired immediately after an NBA playoff game). Prediction: 0.5.
Readers are prohibited from transmitting, framing, reproducing, distributing or copying images used in this article.
