The Wimbledon singles finals highlight this weekend’s ratings predictions. Also on tap, the Gold Cup, Yankees-Red Sox, the U.S. Women’s Open, Premier Boxing Champions, and the NBA Summer League.
— U.S. Open: Third & Final Rounds. Predictions: 2.1 and 3.1; final ratings: 2.2 and 3.1.
— NASCAR Cup Series: Michigan. Prediction: 2.2; final ratings: 1.85.
— MLB: Red Sox-Astros. Prediction: 1.1; final rating: 1.1.
— FIFA Confederations Cup: New Zealand-Russia. Prediction: 0.2; final rating: N/A.
This Week’s Predictions
Wimbledon Women’s Final: V. Williams-Muguruza (9 AM Sat ESPN)
(Photo by Chaz Niell/Icon Sportswire)
In Serena Williams’ absence, Venus Williams’ run to the Wimbledon final was the best-case scenario for ESPN. Venus is still one of the most recognizable names in tennis, and her against-all-odds attempt at a first major title in nine years is arguably the most compelling story of the tournament. With that said, it would seem a tall order for Venus to match her sister’s drawing power. Serena’s back-to-back Wimbledon wins earned a 1.7 in 2015 and a 1.5 last year. The last non-Serena Wimbledon final had a 0.9. Expect something in the middle. Prediction: 1.4.
Wimbledon Men’s Final: Federer-Cilic (9 AM Sun ESPN)
Roger Federer is back atop men’s tennis (even if the rankings do not yet reflect that), going for his second major title of the season. His drawing power will be tested against Marin Cilic, who despite winning a major three years ago remains a relative unknown. Look for ratings to run about even with last year’s Andy Murray–Milos Raonic final, but sink compared to Federer’s previous appearance two years ago against Novak Djokovic (1.9). Prediction: 1.6.
Gold Cup: United States-Nicaragua (6:30 PM Sat FXX)
The network formerly known as Fox Soccer Channel hosts the USMNT Saturday night. FXX has not aired a sporting event since rebranding from Fox Soccer three years ago and some viewers — perhaps even many — may have a hard time finding the channel on the dial. The previous U.S. Gold Cup matches have earned ratings of 0.7 (FOX) and 0.5 (Fox Sports 1). Prediction: 0.4.
MLB: Yankees-Red Sox (4 PM Sat FS1, 1 PM Sun TBS, 8 PM Sun ESPN)
Not even at the height of their rivalry in the early 2000s did the Yankees and Red Sox command so much TV tonnage. The squads will play three games on three networks in 48 hours, starting with a matinee on FS1 Saturday and ending with a doubleheader on TBS and ESPN Sunday. The rivalry is not as strong a draw as it used to be, and 9-12 hours of national coverage might turn some viewers off. Predictions: 0.3 (FS1), 0.4 (TBS) and 1.4.
U.S. Women’s Open: Final Round (2 PM Sun FOX)
Outside of Michelle Wie’s win in 2014, it has been eight years since the U.S. Women’s Open last cracked a 1.0 rating. Last year and 2010 came closest, each scoring a 0.9. Will this year be any different? Wie’s early exit would seem to be a bad sign. Prediction: 0.8.
Premier Boxing Champions: Figueroa-Guerrero (8 PM Sat FOX)
Premier Boxing Champions returns to primetime network television for the first time since March, but Saturday’s card is far from a primetime matchup. As noted by ESPN.com, Figueroa has not fought in 19 months and Guerrero in 11, with the latter having lost four of his last six fights. Expect low numbers. Prediction 1.0.
NBA Summer League: Lakers-Nets (10 PM Sat ESPNU)
The Lakers have been the dominant draw of the NBA’s Summer League. Their matchup with the Celtics last Saturday posted a 0.7 rating in ESPN, on par with the network’s final doubleheader of the regular season and up 133% year-over-year. Other games have posted similarly large gains. The only thing that can stop L.A.’s ratings momentum is odd scheduling — while three of Saturday’s four quarterfinal games are on ESPN2, the Lakers will be on ESPNU. Prediction: 0.3.
Jon Lewis has been covering the sports media industry on a daily basis since 2006 as the founder and main writer of Sports Media Watch. You can contact him here or on the social media websites X (Twitter) or Bluesky.
Last weekend’s NASCAR Cup Series race from Talladega (Ala.) averaged a 2.1 rating and 3.97 million viewers on FOX, down a tick in ratings and 2% in viewership from last year (2.2, 4.04M). Excluding 2020, when the race was delayed several weeks and then postponed due to rain, Carson Hocevar’s win was the least-watched spring Talladega race since it began airing on FOX in 2001. Read more
Monday’s Pistons-Magic first round NBA playoff Game 4 averaged a combined 5.4 million viewers on NBC across Nielsen and Adobe Analytics, up 155% from a Nielsen-only audience of 2.1 million for a non-exclusive Cavaliers-Heat Game 4 on TNT Sports last year. Read more
Coverage of the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs was averaging 1.15 million viewers through the first five days, up 76% from last year and the highest average on record at that point of the postseason. This year’s average is up 30% from the previous high of 887,000 in 2012, and up 39% from the previous high during the current media rights deal — 832,000 in 2024.
Last Sunday’s Wisconsin-Ohio State NCAA women’s hockey national title game averaged 39,000 viewers on ESPNU, down 9% from the same matchup last year (43K).
The NCAA women’s basketball tournament was averaging 628,000 viewers through the first two rounds, up 4% from last year (602K) and behind the Caitlin Clark-fueled levels of 2024 as the highest average since 2009. Note that the 4% increase is well within the margin that can be explained entirely by Nielsen’s shift to “Big Data + Panel” methodology. Read more
Last Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race from Darlington (S.C.) averaged a 1.3 rating and 2.43 million viewers on FS1, up a tick in ratings but down 1% in viewership from Homestead-Miami on the same weekend last year (1.2, 2.46M). Read more
The NBC family of networks averaged 1.1 million viewers for the recently-concluded Milan-Cortina Winter Paralympics, per a combination of Nielsen and Adobe Analytics — up 24% from the previous edition in Beijing four years ago. That is outside the range that would be explained by Nielsen methodological changes. Read more
