The U.S. Open highlights this weekend’s ratings forecast. Also on tap, NASCAR, baseball and the Confederations Cup.
First, the Results of Last Week’s Predictions
— NBA Finals: Warriors-Cavs Game 4. Prediction: 11.0; final rating: 10.7.
— SCF: Penguins-Predators Game 6. Prediction: 3.6; final rating: 3.9.
— World Cup Qualifier: U.S.-Mexico. Predictions: 1.1 (FS1), 2.3 (UNI); final ratings: 1.1 and 1.9.
— The Belmont Stakes. Prediction: 2.8; final rating: 3.2.
— French Open Singles Finals: Predictions: 0.9 and 1.3; final ratings: 0.7 and 1.1.
— MLB: Mostly Orioles-Yankees. Prediction: 1.6; final rating: 1.5.
This Week’s Predictions
U.S. Open: Third and Final Rounds (11 AM Sat & Sun, FOX)
- Recent years have not been kind to the U.S. Open. The tournament’s three lowest rated final rounds since 1981 have come in the past three years, with last year’s 3.4 sandwiched between a 4.2 in 2015 and the all-time low of 3.0 in 2014. So too have the three lowest rated third rounds, with last year’s 2.2 the lowest since ’81. The bad times seem unlikely to end this year, especially with Jordan Spieth tied for 43rd, Jason Day and Rory McIlroy missing the cut, and Phil Mickelson skipping the event altogether. Given the PGA’s months-long ratings slump, one wonders just how low these numbers can go. A couple of factors are in the USGA’s favor — a slightly later Sunday finish (8:30 PM ET, as opposed to 8 last year) and no NBA to overshadow the proceedings — but expect historically low numbers nonetheless. Predictions: 2.1 and 3.1.
NASCAR Cup Series: Michigan (3 PM Sun, Fox Sports 1)
- Not counting rainouts, 12 of 13 Cup Series races this season have set or tied a multi-year ratings low. The lone exception was the Daytona 500, which tied its second-lowest rating ever. If Michigan is to join Daytona, it would need at least a 2.3 rating — which would tie a cable season-high. That seems unlikely. At best, expect ratings to pull even with the 20-year low of 2.2 set last year and in 2015. Prediction: 2.2.
MLB: Red Sox-Astros (8 PM Sun, ESPN)
- With the MLB-leading Astros hosting the AL East-contending Red Sox, one would expect solid numbers for Sunday Night Baseball. Of course it would not take much to top last year’s 0.8 for Pirates-Cubs, which ran into the buzzsaw that was Game 7 of the NBA Finals. Prediction: 1.1.
FIFA Confederations Cup: New Zealand-Russia (11 AM Sat, FS1)
- The Confederations Cup offers a preview of the issues Fox Sports may face in next year’s World Cup. Four years ago, the events took place in a soccer hotbed close to the U.S., Brazil. This time, they take place in a nation rarely associated with soccer that is several hours ahead of Eastern time — and that is not even getting into some of the recent issues involving the hosts. If it seems like Fox has its work cut out for it, just wait for 2021-22. In the meantime, expect ratings to dip for this year’s Confederations Cup, starting with Saturday’s opener. The comparable match in 2013 did not exactly set a high bar with a 0.3 on ESPN. Prediction: 0.2.
Given the lack of notable sporting events on television over the next several weeks, weekend ratings predictions will go on hiatus until later in the summer.
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