Week 5 of the NFL season highlights this weekend’s ratings forecast. Also on tap, the MLB Division Series, week six of the college football season, the NBA preseason and the NASCAR playoffs.
Last week’s results at the bottom of the page. All times Eastern.
NFL: Packers-Cowboys (4:25 PM Sun FOX)
Thus far this season, ratings have increased for all four NFL windows that have featured the Cowboys. That streak is certain to continue this week, as Dallas faces Green Bay in one of the NFL’s most attractive matchups. Packers-Cowboys would do well in almost any circumstance, but especially coming off a thrilling playoff matchup that delivered the NFL’s highest early round rating in 20 years. The teams’ previous regular season meetings scored ratings of 15.8 (last year), 16.5 (2015) and 16.3 (2013). Given the downward trend in NFL ratings, this year’s game will probably be lower than that. Even so, expect a strong number. It goes without saying that ratings will easily surpass last year’s comparable window on CBS, which featured Bengals-Cowboys (12.1). Prediction: 15.2.
NFL: Chiefs-Texans (8:30 PM Sun NBC)
An undefeated team against a star rookie quarterback would normally be a solid primetime matchup, but the Chiefs and Texans have been ratings kryptonite in recent years. NBC might be hard-pressed to surpass last year’s 9.3 for Giants-Packers, a game that aired directly opposite a presidential debate. Prediction: 9.4.
MLB: Indians-Yankees Game 3 (7:30 PM Sun FS1)
Cleveland’s Game 2 comeback has put the Yankees on the brink of elimination and sapped some of the anticipation from Sunday’s ALDS Game 3. Luckily for Fox Sports 1, last year’s comparable Rangers-Blue Jays game set such a low bar — a 1.3 opposite a presidential debate — that a big increase is virtually guaranteed. Prediction: 2.2.
MLB: Cubs-Nationals Game 2 (5:30 PM Sat TBS)
The Cubs’ run to the World Series invigorated baseball’s long-flagging TV ratings last season, culminating in a whopping 21.8 rating for their curse-ending, extra-inning Game 7 win. Nobody should expect those kinds of numbers this season, but another deep Cubs playoff run should do well nonetheless. Last year, the Cubs’ NLDS Game 2 against the Giants had a 2.5 rating on MLB Network. In 2015, their Game 2 against the Cardinals had a 2.8 on TBS. Prediction: 2.4.
CFB: Michigan State-Michigan (7:30 PM Sat ABC)
It lacks the national appeal of an Alabama-Auburn or Ohio State-Michigan, but the Michigan-Michigan State rivalry has had its moments — most notably the frantic finish two years ago. This year’s game is the first of the series to take place in primetime, which should help ratings surpass last year’s 2.9 for a Noon ET game on ESPN. Also helping? Michigan’s drawing power this season. All three Wolverines games on a Nielsen-rated network have increased over last year. On the same weekend last year, FSU-Miami had a 3.2. Prediction: 3.4.
CFB: West Virginia-TCU (3:30 PM Sat FS1)
It may be the site of College Gameday this weekend, but West Virginia-TCU is likely to get lost in the shuffle opposite Miami-FSU on ESPN, Notre Dame on ABC and the SEC on CBS. Ratings should challenge the FS1 season-high of 1.2 for Maryland-Texas in week one, but do not expect anything too impressive. Prediction: 1.3.
NBA Preseason: Kings-Lakers (9 PM Sun ESPN)
The NBA returns to ESPN with much-hyped rookie Lonzo Ball and the Lakers hosting DeAaron Fox and the Kings. Ball had a major impact on the ratings during the NBA’s Summer League, but that was during a dead period on the sporting calendar. Moving the needle on an NFL Sunday is a much bigger challenge. Prediction: 0.5.
NASCAR Playoffs: Charlotte (1 PM Sun NBC)
Back in April, Charlotte Motor Speedway elected to move its playoff race back from Saturday night to Sunday afternoon. That would usually be a good move for NASCAR, which struggles on Saturday nights, but this time of year, Sunday afternoon means going head-to-head with the behemoth that is the NFL. NASCAR better hope for a third straight rainout at Charlotte, a distinct possibility. Otherwise, ratings will likely plunge from the last time the race was run as scheduled, 2014 (3.1). Prediction: 1.9.
Last Week’s Results
— NFL: Raiders-Broncos. Prediction: 11.8; result: 9.1
— NFL: Colts-Seahawks. Prediction: 9.5; result: 9.6
— NFL: Rams-Cowboys or Panthers-Patriots. Prediction: 10.2; result: 11.5
— CFB: Clemson-Virginia Tech. Prediction: 3.3; result: 2.7
— CFB: Mississippi-Alabama. Prediction: 2.2; result: 1.8
— CFB: Miami (OH)-Notre Dame. Prediction: 0.7; result: 0.49
— Golf: Final Day of Presidents Cup. Prediction: 1.3; result: 1.5
— NASCAR Playoffs: Dover. Prediction: 1.4; result: 1.3
