Weekend Ratings Predictions

Ratings predictions for sporting events this weekend, including college basketball’s conference tournaments on CBS and ESPN, the NCAA Selection Show on CBS, the NBA on ABC and NBA TV, the NHL on NBC, and golf’s WGC-Cadillac Championship on NBC.

First, the results of last week’s predictions

Sport	Game/Event	Net	Prediction	Rating
NBA	Bulls/Heat	ABC	2.9	3.0
ABC drew a 3.0 final rating for Miami’s loss to the Bulls last Sunday, the second-highest rating ever for an early afternoon regular season game on the network (start time prior to 3 PM ET).
NBA	Lakers/Spurs	ABC	3.3	3.2
The Lakers’ easy victory over the Spurs earned a 3.2 final rating on ABC last Sunday, up 52% from Lakers/Magic in an earlier timeslot last year, and up 100% from Suns/Spurs in 2009.
NBA	Knicks/Hawks	ESPN	1.6	1.3
Last Sunday’s Knicks/Hawks game drew a 1.3 U.S. rating on ESPN; there was no game in the comparable timeslot last year.
NBA	Celtics/Bucks	ESPN	1.1	1.5
In the final game of last week’s NBA quadruple-header on ABC/ESPN, the Celtics’ win over the Bucks drew a 1.5 U.S. rating, up 50% from Wizards/Celtics in an earlier timeslot a year earlier.
NASCAR	Kobalt Tools 400 (Las Vegas)	FOX	5.7	5.9
Last Sunday’s NASCAR Sprint Cup Kobalt Tools 400 from Las Vegas scored a 5.9 final rating on FOX, up 34% from last year, but down 9% from 2009.
NASCAR Nationwide	Sam’s Town 300 (Las Vegas)	FOX	1.5	2.2
The 2.2 final rating for last Saturday’s NASCAR Nationwide Series Sam’s Town 300 marks a 22% increase from last year’s race, which aired on ESPN2.
College Basketball (M)	#2 Kansas/#24 Missouri	CBS	1.4	1.2
	Oregon/#18 Arizona or Michigan State/Michigan		1.1	1.1
	#19 Villanova/#5 Pittsburgh		1.3	1.2
Last Saturday’s Villanova/Pittsburgh game drew a 1.2 rating on CBS, up 100% from last year, and the largest increase of the weekend. Earlier in the day, Kansas/Missouri drew a 1.2, up 9%, and regional action drew a 1.1, up 10%.
College Basketball (M)	#4 Duke/#13 North Carolina	CBS	2.3	2.7
The latest chapter of the Duke/North Carolina rivalry drew a 2.7 final rating on CBS last Saturday night, up 69% from last year’s comparable meeting between the teams, which aired on ESPN. The 2.7 marks a 7% decline from the last Duke/North Carolina game on CBS (2.9), which aired on a Sunday afternoon.
College Basketball (M)	#23 Kentucky/Tennessee	CBS	1.3	1.5
	MVC Championship (Missouri State/Indiana State)		1.1	1.2
	#10 Wisconsin/#1 Ohio State		1.8	1.9
CBS earned a 1.9 final rating for Wisconsin/Ohio State last Sunday, up 73% from last year. Earlier in the day, the Missouri Valley Conference Championship drew a 1.2, up 33%, and Kentucky/Tennessee drew a 1.5, flat compared to last year.
Golf (M)	Honda Classic, Third Round	NBC	1.4	1.5
Golf (M)	Honda Classic, Final Round	NBC	1.7	1.7
Ratings for third and final round coverage of last week’s Honda Classic were up 25% and 6%, respectively.
NHL	Flyers/Rangers	NBC	0.9	0.8
NBC earned a 0.8 final rating for last Sunday’s Flyers/Rangers game, down 20% from last year, but flat compared to 2009.

This week’s predictions:

Sport	Game/Event	Day/Time	Net	Prediction
College Basketball (M)	Conference USA Championship Game (Memphis/UTEP)	11:30 AM Saturday	CBS	0.9
The bar for success is not very high for the Conference USA Championship Game. Last year’s Houston/UTEP game drew a 0.8 rating, and Memphis/Tulsa two years ago scored a not-much-better 0.9. Expect similar numbers for this year’s matchup.
College Basketball (M)	Big Ten Tournament Semifinal (MICH/#1 OSU)	1:30 PM Saturday	CBS	2.0
College Basketball (M)	Big Ten Tournament Semifinal (PSU/MSU)	4 PM Saturday	CBS	1.6
Ohio State has played in the early Big Ten semifinal in each of the past two years — and in both years, the early game outdrew the late game. With the Buckeyes ranked #1 in the country, expect that trend to continue. Last year, the early semifinal (OSU/ILL) drew a 1.6, and the late semifinal (MIN/PUR) drew a 1.5.
College Basketball (M)	Pac-10 Championship Game (WSH/#15 ARI)	6 PM Saturday	CBS	1.4
CBS wraps up its Saturday college basketball coverage with the Pac-10 Championship Game. Last year’s title game (1.3) was the lowest rated since the Pac-10 Tournament resumed nine years ago. Ratings haven’t improved for the championship game since 2005; look for that to change this year.
College Basketball (M)	SEC Tournament Semifinal (#16 UK/ALA)	1 PM Saturday	ABC	1.3
College Basketball (M)	SEC Tournament Semifinal (#12 UF/#24 VANDY)	3 PM Saturday	ABC	1.2
For the second straight year, the SEC Tournament airs on ABC. Last year’s early semifinal drew a 1.6 rating, boosted in large part by the star-studded, #2 ranked Kentucky Wildcats. This year’s version of Kentucky lacks last year’s hype — and last year’s top ten ranking — and the ratings should suffer. By contrast, look for the numbers to inch up for the late game, which features a pair of ranked teams in Florida and Vanderbilt. Last year’s game between #23 Vanderbilt and unranked Mississippi State drew a 1.1.
College Basketball (M)	Big 12 Championship Game (#10 TX/#2 KU)	6 PM Saturday	ESPN	2.0
The Big 12 Championship Game features a battle of top ten teams as #10 Texas faces off against #2 ranked Kansas. Last year’s Big 12 title game featured an even stronger top ten matchup, as #9 Kansas State faced #1 Kansas. That game drew a healthy 1.9 rating; expect similar numbers for this year’s matchup.
College Basketball (M)	Big East Championship Game (#19 CT/#14 LOU)	9 PM Saturday	ESPN	2.1
Saturday’s Big East title game between Connecticut and Louisville should do well enough in the ratings, due at least in some small part to a matchup of big name coaches, Jim Calhoun and Rick Pitino. Last year’s West Virginia/Georgetown game drew a 2.0, one of just three Big East title games in the past nine seasons to draw at least 2% of U.S. TV homes.
College Basketball (M)	SEC Championship Game (#16 KU/#12 UF)	1 PM Sunday	ABC	1.9
Last year’s thrilling SEC Championship Game between Kentucky and Mississippi State earned a 2.6 rating. Even though this year’s game pits Kentucky against a higher-profile opponent, Florida, expect lower numbers.
College Basketball (M)	ACC Championship Game (#5 DUKE/#7 UNC)	1 PM Sunday	ESPN	2.0
For the first time in ten years, rivals Duke and North Carolina will square off in the ACC Championship Game. The teams’ meeting last week on CBS earned a 2.7 rating. ESPN is unlikely to draw numbers that large, but Sunday’s game should be up significantly from last year’s mere 0.9. The 2001 ACC Championship Game, the last to pit Duke against North Carolina, earned a 1.5.
College Basketball (M)	Atlantic-10 Championship Game (DYTN/RICH)	3:30 PM Sunday	CBS	0.8
For the second straight year, the Atlantic-10 Championship Game airs on CBS. Last year’s game set the bar extremely low, with a mere 0.6 rating. Look for better numbers almost by default for this year’s game.
College Basketball (M)	Big Ten Championship Game (PSU/#1 OSU)	3:30 PM Sunday	CBS	2.6
The #1 team in the country takes the floor for Sunday’s Big Ten Championship Game. Expect the numbers to bounce back from last year’s 2.3, which was down from the previous year (2.5).
College Basketball (M)	NCAA Tournament Selection Show	6 PM Sunday	CBS	4.8
Ratings for the NCAA Tournament Selection Show have declined in eight of the past ten years, including last year (4.1). Expect a reversal of that trend this year, as the presence of TNT’s Charles Barkley and Kenny Smith should attract some extra curious eyeballs.
NBA	Lakers/Mavericks	9 PM Saturday	NBA TV	0.47
Somehow, a battle of perennial contenders near the top of the NBA’s Western Conference will air on NBA TV instead of ESPN, ABC or TNT. The numbers will be a fraction of what they could have been on one of the larger networks, but expect NBA TV to be pleased nonetheless.
NBA	Magic/Suns	3:30 PM Sunday	ABC	1.5
The NBA Sunday Showcase isn’t much of a showcase this week, as the 9th-place Suns take on the 4th-place Magic. If that weren’t enough, Suns G Steve Nash may not play. With college basketball providing very formidable competition, look for Sunday’s game to earn several dubious distinctions — the lowest rated ABC game of the season, the first ABC game to dip below 2.0 rating, and the first ABC game to have a decline from last year. Last year’s Celtics/Cavaliers game drew a 2.4.
NHL	Blackhawks/Capitals	12:30 PM Sunday	NBC	0.8
Sunday’s Blackhawks/Capitals game is the same matchup NBC aired on the comparable date last year. Expect the same rating (0.8).
Golf (M)	WGC-Cadillac Championship, Third Round	3 PM Saturday	NBC	1.6
Golf (M)	WGC-Cadillac Championship, Final Round	3 PM Sunday	NBC	2.9
Tiger Woods‘ presence should boost ratings for the WGC-Cadillac Championship well beyond last year, when third and final round coverage drew ratings of 1.3 and 1.9, respectively. But Woods will likely have to be in contention for the numbers to come close to 2009 levels, when the third round drew a 1.9 and the final round scored a 3.4.