Predicting Duke-UNC ratings and more, including a potential NBA Finals preview, an NHL outdoor game, and the Big Ten Tournament final.
CBB: Duke-UNC (8:15 PM SAT ESPN)
NEW YORK, NY – FEBRUARY 03: Duke Blue Devils head coach Mike Krzyzewski reacts during the first half of the college basketball game between the Duke Blue Devils and the St. John’s Red Storm on February 3, 2018, at Madison Square Garden in New York, NY. (Photo by John Jones/Icon Sportswire)
For the first time in six years, Duke-North Carolina is a matchup of top ten teams. While the rivalry is always among college basketball’s top draws, the added significance should add a few tenths to the rating. The #9 vs. #3 matchup in 2012 had a 2.7 rating, still tied as the highest for the rivalry this decade. Their comparable meeting last year, which saw Duke ranked 17th, had a 2.4.
Look for Saturday’s rating to place somewhere between last year and the 2012 high. Complicating matters is tough NBA competition — a Celtics-Rockets game that is much higher-profile than when originally scheduled last summer. No matter what, ratings should easily exceed the first UNC-Duke game this season, which tied the rivals’ lowest rated meeting in eight years (1.5). That game aired opposite the Olympics. Prediction: 2.5.
NBA: Celtics-Rockets (8:30 PM SAT ABC)
Celtics-Rockets looked merely decent when the NBA schedule was released last year, but now it is a dark horse NBA Finals preview. Saturday’s game should be a good test of the NBA’s drawing power beyond Cleveland and Golden State. Given the UNC-Duke competition, do not expect ratings to crack the season’s top ten (currently last Saturday’s Thunder-Warriors game in the tenth spot with a 2.5 rating). Even so, it seems fair to expect ratings to double last year’s 1.1 for Clippers-Bulls. Prediction: 2.2.
NHL: Maple Leafs-Capitals (8 PM Sat NBC)
The NHL seems to have benefited, at least in the very short term, from staying home for the Olympics. NBC’s three telecasts during the Games each posted a double-digit increase in ratings, a turnaround from the network’s four previous windows — which each declined. With the Olympics now over, will the good times continue? Saturday’s Toronto-Washington outdoor game is burdened by tough competition, not to mention the standard Canadian caveat that Toronto does not count toward U.S. TV ratings. In the same window last year, a Penguins-Flyers outdoor game netted a 1.1 rating. Prediction: 0.9.
CBB: Big Ten Tournament Final (4 PM Sun CBS)
The Big Ten Tournament was moved up a week this season as part of a move to Madison Square Garden. Typically, the title game is one of college basketball’s biggest regular season draws, fueled by the Big Ten’s appeal and — more importantly — by a timeslot leading into the NCAA Tournament Selection Show. Absent the latter, expect ratings to fall pretty significantly. Last year’s title game had a 2.3 rating, tied as the game’s second-lowest mark in the past decade (the low is a 2.2). On the same weekend last year, Purdue-Northwestern had a 1.0. Prediction: 1.7.
NASCAR Cup Series: Las Vegas (3:30 PM Sun FOX)
It is fair to assume the Olympics had at least some impact on NASCAR ratings the first two weeks of the season. Daytona (-20%) and Atlanta (-13%) suffered double-digit declines, with both hitting lows. Perhaps this week’s Las Vegas race will post a more modest drop. That may be the best-case scenario, as there is no real reason to believe ratings will increase over last year’s 3.6. Prediction: 3.2.
PGA: WGC-Mexico Championship (2 PM Sun NBC)
With Tiger Woods playing tournaments — and making cuts — again, it is no surprise that PGA ratings are on the rise this season. The bigger intrigue is what happens when Woods is not in the field. Since the over-the-air portion of the schedule began in January, the two tournaments he missed (Phoenix and Pebble Beach) have been inconclusive. The Phoenix Open surged to multi-year highs, while Pebble Beach fell to multi-year lows (albeit opposite the Olympics). How will this week’s WGC-Mexico Championship fare? Last year’s final round had a 2.2, down from a 2,6 for Doral the previous year. Prediction: 2.4.
Jon Lewis has been covering the sports media industry on a daily basis since 2006 as the founder and main writer of Sports Media Watch. You can contact him here or on the social media websites X (Twitter) or Bluesky.
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