Ratings Predictions: Cavs-C’s, Stanley Cup, Indy 500 & More

For the second time this postseason, LeBron James and the Cavaliers play in a Game 7. Nearly a month ago, Cleveland’s narrow Game 7 win over Indiana had a 4.2 rating on ABC, and that was a first round game that started at 1 PM ET. On Sunday, the Cavs face Boston with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line, in a cushy primetime slot on the most-watched night of the week.

James has been in this position twice before, during his tenure with the Miami Heat. A 2013 blowout of the Pacers had a 7.1 rating on TNT, while a 2012 matchup against the same Celtics had a 7.7 on ESPN. The former aired on a Monday night and the latter on a Saturday. Given the Sunday night slot, better numbers can be expected this time around.

The last conference final Game 7 — Thunder-Warriors on TNT two years ago — had an 8.9 rating on a Monday night. That was an all-time NBA cable TV record. Sunday’s game is likely to fall short, but barring a blowout, a rating above 8.0 seems likely.

The Cavaliers’ maddening inconsistency has been compelling television. LeBron and company have generated ten of the sixteen largest playoff audiences so far and Sunday’s game is certain to land on top — at least for one night. Warriors-Rockets could very well top it on Monday. Prediction: 8.2.

Golden State faces elimination for the first time since 2016 as the Rockets are one win away from pulling off a true shocker. Even so, Saturday’s Game 6 looks to be a forgettable affair. The Warriors were already a double-digit favorite to tie the series, and that was before Houston’s Chris Paul was ruled out due to injury. In a similar situation back in 2005, Dwyane Wade was injured in Miami’s Game 5 win over Detroit and held out of Game 6, which the Pistons won by 35. Considering the Warriors won a game earlier in this series by 41, déjà vu seems a distinct possiblity.

Rockets-Warriors ratings have already been trending below 2016 levels, still the highest rated Western Conference Finals since 2002. With the Warriors widely expected to win, look for a decent drop from 2016’s 6.2. Prediction: 5.3.

The NHL has rarely had as attractive a matchup in the Stanley Cup Final. The Vegas Golden Knights are one of the most incredible stories in sports, a first-year expansion team making it all the way to the championship round. In any other year, the Capitals’ return to the final would be the headline, with Washington and star Alex Ovechkin finally breaking through after years of disappointment.

NBC is surely rooting for Houston Rockets to win Saturday night, as an NBA Game 7 would check the NHL into the glass on Monday. Absent any competition, expect the highest rated Game 1 in at least three years. With competition, ratings will struggle to match last year’s 2.8. Predictions: 3.2 (no NBA); 2.5 (if there is NBA).

ABC broadcasts the Indianapolis 500 for the final time on Sunday. Indy 500 ratings fell to a record-low 3.4 last year, but there is a reason for optimism entering this year’s race. After a seven-year absence, Danica Patrick returns to the 500 in what will be her final auto race. Say what one will about her lack of wins, but Patrick is responsible for both the highest rated Daytona 500 of this decade and the highest rated Indy 500 in the past two decades. Her presence will not lift ratings anywhere close to 2005-levels — when her near-victory scored a 6.5 — but it could be good enough for a few tenths. Prediction: 3.7.

NASCAR is desperate for some ratings relief, but do not expect it to come this week at Charlotte. The race will overlap with an NBA Game 7 involving LeBron James, by far the toughest competition the race has faced since it moved to FOX in 2001. So far this season, all 11 Cup Series races (excluding rainouts) have declined to multi-year lows. It is almost certain that Charlotte will bring that number to 12. Last year’s race had a 2.8, the lowest since at least 2000. Prediction: 2.2.

The Monaco Grand Prix was always one of the crown jewels of NBC’s Formula 1 schedule, but now it belongs to ESPN. It stands to reason that the move from broadcast to cable will shave some tenths off of the NBC-era norm of 0.9 or 1.0, especially given some viewers may opt for the afternoon re-air on ABC. Of course, once ratings are low enough, a few tenths can be a pretty sizable decline. Prediction: 0.6.

FOX airs the UEFA Champions League final one last time this weekend as Real Madrid faces Liverpool. Not counting the Spanish-language simulcast on Fox Deportes, ratings for the final have ranged between 0.9 and 1.3 in the past five years. Expect this year’s matchup to split the difference. Prediction: 1.1.

MLB on FOX returns with a strong slate of games Saturday. Nearly two-thirds of the country gets Angels-Yankees in rookie sensation Shohei Ohtani‘s second game in Yankee Stadium. The remaining markets will split Giants-Cubs and Astros-Indians, the latter a matchup of the last two American League champions. Yet with the NBA providing potent competition, even this appetizing lineup is likely to fall short of last year’s 1.4. Prediction: 1.3.