Ratings predictions: XFL, Duke-UNC and more

For the second-straight year, the weekend after the Super Bowl marks the debut of a new spring football league. Unlike last year’s Alliance of American Football, the XFL launches with instant brand recognition. Nineteen years ago, the original XFL blended football and pro wrestling for one memorable season. Though an infamous failure — its first game had a 9.5 rating and its last a 2.1 — the league lived on through alums like Rod “He Hate Me” Smart and Tommy Maddox entering the NFL, and more recently, an ESPN 30 For 30.

The new XFL is a far less audacious undertaking than the original. Announced in 2018 at the height of the NFL ratings panic, the new league promises a loosened-up, faster-paced version of pro football with interesting deviations from the NFL rulebook. Yet while the original XFL existed in swaggering opposition to the status quo, promising harder hits (among other things), XFL 2.0 is a far more traditional offering.

So why should it fare any better than the AAF? Beyond its familiar name and its backing from Vince McMahon, the league’s TV deals with ESPN/ABC and Fox Sports put four games per week on networks that sports fans regularly watch. The AAF had its first game on CBS and a couple of games on TNT, but mostly aired its games on CBS Sports Network and NFL Network. (While the latter pulls big numbers during NFL season, it is a ghost town otherwise.)

The AAF drew about as well as regular season NHL games last year, which is more impressive than it sounds for a first-year league. Expect the XFL to do a little better than that. Its Saturday debut will be no match for 2001’s 9.5, but the ratings should nonetheless top the day’s other sporting events. The AAF debuted with a 1.9 rating in primetime last year. Predictions: 2.0 (ABC) and 1.7 (FOX).

North Carolina’s poor play this season has made the Duke-North Carolina rivalry less attractive than usual. The Tar Heels are not just unranked, but under .500. Duke is favored by a comfortable eight points. Upsets have been common throughout a raggedy college basketball season, which means that UNC has a chance. It also means that an upset would not be all that meaningful. In a year when Duke lost at home to Stephen F. Austin, losing to UNC on the road would not be particularly dramatic.

Ratings will of course drop — substantially — from the rivals’ first meeting last year, which featured Zion Williamson (for about 30 seconds) and averaged a 2.7. The real question is whether the ratings will even surpass their first meeting in 2018, which aired opposite the Olympics and had a 1.5. Prediction: 1.7.

Starting this weekend, ABC has six NBA Saturday Primetime games left this season, and the last-place, injury-riddled Golden State Warriors are scheduled for four. While the Lakers’ presence should keep ratings somewhat respectable this week — at least as compared to last week’s mere 1.1 for Sixers-Celtics — it is highly unlikely that the numbers will match last year (Thunder-Rockets: 1.7). Prediction: 1.5.

A mixed bag is not normally cause for celebration, but for NASCAR, last year’s up-and-down season was a much-needed reprieve. This season will go a long way to determining whether NASCAR ratings will stabilize for the long-term. There will be no real conclusions to draw from this week’s preseason “Clash,” but last year’s edition had a 1.4, even with the previous year. Prediction: 1.3.

The NHL does not really do a lot of flex scheduling, hence NBC’s lopsided matchup between the league-leading Bruins and the last-place Red Wings. Detroit, with just one win in their last ten games, is on pace for the NHL’s fewest points in a season since the 1999-00 Atlanta Thrashers. A ratings drop seems probable, but last year’s comparable Blues-Predators game set the bar low with a 0.6. Prediction: 0.5.