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Home › Features › Ratings predictions › Weekend ratings predictions.

Weekend ratings predictions.

by Jon Lewis
19 years ago
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First, the results of last week’s predictions.

  • MLB Division Series on TBS, Diamondbacks/Cubs Game 3 (10/13). Prediction: 3.6. Final rating: 3.0. The first of three series to end in a sweep drew a decent number for TBS. The 3.0 marked a 33% decline from the 4.5 for Yankees/Tigers Game 4 last year, though that can be attributed to the game airing on cable.
  • MLB Division Series on TBS, Phillies/Rockies Game 3 (10/13). Prediction: 2.8. Final rating: 2.8. The Rockies have not been a huge draw so far this postseason.
  • MLB Division Series on TBS, Red Sox/Angels Game 3 (10/14). Prediction: 4.0. Final rating: 2.8. The early 3 PM timeslot hurt this game; the 2.8 rating marked a 30% decline from the 4.0 average for the first two games, which aired in primetime.
  • MLB Division Series on TBS, Indians/Yankees Game 3 (10/14). Prediction: 5.3. Final rating: 5.4. Game 3 and 4 of Indians/Yankees finished as the two highest rated MLB playoff games ever on cable.
  • NASCAR on ABC, UAW-Ford 500 (10/14). Prediction: 3.5. Final rating: 4.6. NASCAR ratings are still falling, though not nearly to the same level they were in the past few weeks. The 4.6 rating for the UAW-Ford 500 marked a 4% decline from a 4.8 rating for the same race in ’06.
  • College football on ABC, Texas/Oklahoma, Iowa/Penn St. or NC State/FSU, (10/13) Prediction: 3.4. Final rating: 4.9. The Red River Rivalry was a much bigger draw in ’07 than in ’06; the 4.9 rating for regional action on ABC marked a 58% increase from the 3.1 rating for comparable coverage last year.
  • Saturday Night Football on ABC, Ohio St./Purdue or Notre Dame/UCLA (10/13) — Prediction: 3.0. Final rating: 2.9. When Ohio State played Purdue two weeks ago, they were not the #1 team in the nation. Even if they had been, the rating may still have been this mediocre. Luckily for ABC, the rating on the comparable date last year was so poor that the 2.9 still marked a 21% increase.
  • SEC on CBS, Florida/LSU (10/13) Prediction: 4.8. Final rating: 5.3. The first of two weeks of big ratings for SEC football on CBS. The 5.3 rating for the primetime classic between Florida and LSU was a 56% jump over the 3.4 rating for the same game in an earlier timeslot last year.
  • Sunday Night Football, Bears/Packers (10/14) — Prediction: 9.0. Final rating: 11.2. Even in defeat, Brett Favre and the Packers were good for a 17% increase in ratings for NBC.
  • NFL on CBS, Patriots at Cowboys. Prediction: 16.3. Final rating: 18.0. The battle of 5-0 teams gave CBS the best NFL regular season rating in eleven years. The 29.1 million viewers who tuned into the game is the most for any sporting event since the 2006 Rose Bowl, which drew 35.6 million.
  • ALCS on FOX, Indians at Red Sox. Prediction: 5.6. Final rating: 5.8. The ALCS is trending up for FOX. Game 2 drew a 5.8 rating on a Saturday night, beating the NASCAR airing opposite on ABC by 38%. The 5.8 was an 18% increase over the 4.9 rating for the comparable game last year, Game 3 of the Mets/Cardinals NLCS.
  • NLCS on TBS, Diamondbacks at Rockies. Prediction: 4.1. Final rating: 3.2. While the NLCS set a record low, the ratings for Games 1 and 3, the two games with 8 PM ET start times, drew decent ratings. Still, the 3.2 for Game 3 was a 41% drop from the 5.4 rating Indians/Yankees Game 3 drew a week earlier.
  • NASCAR on ABC, Bank of America 500. Prediction: 4.3. Final rating: 4.2. The 4.2 rating for NASCAR on ABC marked an 11% decline from the 4.7 rating for the same race last year. This marks the third straight week NASCAR has seen declining ratings.
  • College football on ABC, Regional action. Prediction: 4.8. Final rating: 3.5. A blemished USC could not attract a huge rating for ABC on Saturday. The 3.5 rating for several regionalized games was a 17% decline from comparable coverage in ’06.
  • SEC on CBS, LSU at Kentucky. Prediction: 3.1. Final rating: 4.2. LSU was good for two weeks of big ratings for CBS. The 4.2 rating for the Tigers’ upset loss against Kentucky gave CBS an 82% jump over the 2.3 for the comparable Mississippi/Alabama game last year.
  • Notre Dame Football on NBC, Boston College at Notre Dame. Prediction: 2.6. Final rating: 1.9. Notre Dame is ripe for parody, leaving NBC with dismal ratings. The network is averaging a 2.1 through three games, heading into the Irish’ rivalry game against USC.
  • Sunday Night Football on NBC, Saints/Seahawks. Prediction: 8.5. Final rating: 7.1. Notre Dame was not the only dud for NBC last weekend. Sunday Night Football set an all-time record low; the 7.1 rating was the lowest ever for a primetime NFL game on broadcast television. The game managed to fall 10% from the even more unappealing Raiders/Broncos game that aired on the comparable night last year.

This week’s predictions:

  • ALCS on FOX, Indians/Red Sox Game 6, 8:00 PM Saturday — With only Michigan/Illinois as competition, look for this series to continue rising in the ratings. Game 6 is almost assured to draw a better rating than the game on the comparable night last year, Game 1 of the ’06 World Series. Prediction: 9.8.
  • ALCS on FOX, Indians/Red Sox Game 7*, 8:00 PM Sunday — Bud Selig and the execs at FOX have to be hoping the ALCS goes at least this far, if not just for the huge ratings Game 7 would generate, but for the possibility that the Red Sox would make the World Series. The last LCS Game 7, Cardinals/Mets last year, drew a 10.8 rating. Prediction: 12.1.
  • Notre Dame football on NBC, USC/Notre Dame, 3:30 PM Saturday — With USC at least temporarily out of the national title chase and Notre Dame laughably bad, look for the ratings for this game to fall well short of the 7.9 the rivalry has averaged in the past two years. Prediction: 2.8.
  • SEC on CBS, Florida/Kentucky, 3:30 PM Saturday — Coming off of a classic win versus LSU, will Kentucky attract national attention? Prediction: 2.9.
  • College football on ABC, regional, 3:30 PM Saturday — Miami/Florida State may be irrelevant on the national stage, but the rivalry should still attract a decent audience. Prediction: 3.6.
  • NASCAR on ABC, Subway 500, 1:30 PM Sunday — NASCAR ratings have flopped this year; while races still draw large audiences, the ratings are consistently declining. Last year, the Subway 500 drew a 4.1 rating on NBC. Prediction: 3.8.
  • Saturday Night Football on ABC, Michigan/Illinois, 8:00 PM Saturday — This game, featuring an unranked Illinois and a #25 Michigan, may not even draw a 3.0 rating. Look for Red Sox/Indians to trounce this game in the ratings. Prediction: 2.6.
  • Sunday Night Football on NBC, Steelers/Broncos, 8:15 PM Sunday — NBC has to be hoping that Indians/Red Sox does not go seven games. Prediction: 9.3.

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Jon Lewis

Jon Lewis has been covering the sports media industry on a daily basis since 2006 as the founder and main writer of Sports Media Watch. You can contact him here or on the social media websites X (Twitter) or Bluesky.

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