Ratings predictions: Daytona 500, Durant’s return and more

Coming up on a full year since the wave of cancellations and postponements that decimated the sports industry last March, the ratings story remains the same. The Super Bowl, College Football Playoff National Championship, World Series, NBA Finals, Stanley Cup Final, Triple Crown horse races, Masters and U.S. Open of golf, U.S. and French opens of tennis and Indy 500 have all declined to multi-year (or all-time) lows, and in most cases suffered sharp, double-digit declines.

It would make sense to predict that the Daytona 500 will join the list, but there are a couple of reasons to think otherwise. For one, NASCAR came out of last year mostly unscathed, its viewership down just 1% for a full season in which all-but-four races occurred post-hiatus. Sunday marks the NASCAR debut of new owner Michael Jordan, who is in Daytona for the race. Perhaps most importantly, last year’s Daytona 500 was run mostly on a Monday and averaged a record-low 4.4 rating. Even in a year of across-the-board declines for sports on TV, could a Sunday Daytona 500 really average a lower rating than one run on a Monday?

The question may be moot, given the weather forecast. In the event that the race can be run Sunday, do not be stunned if the rating comes in below last year’s 4.4. Such is the state of the industry. The big events just do not hit the high notes anymore.

One possible X factor is Bubba Wallace, who is driving for the team owned by Jordan and Denny Hamlin. If he is in contention, perhaps he could have the kind of impact on the numbers that Danica Patrick did back in 2013. Even then, do not expect ratings anywhere close to the level of that 2013 race (9.9). It is hard to imagine anything higher than the 5.0 range even in the best-case scenario. [Related: Daytona 500 ratings history.] Prediction: 3.8.

Kevin Durant and the Warriors reunite in the Bay Area Saturday night in one of the NBA’s marquee matchups. A few years ago, a game like this would have been a decent bet for a 3.0 rating, maybe something in the mid-to-high 2.0s. When Durant returned to Oklahoma City in 2017, the game had a 3.4. No chance of that this time around, not coming off of a year when an NBA Finals game had a 3.1 (albeit airing months out of season and facing the NFL).

The season’s first meeting between Golden State and Brooklyn — on TNT Opening Night — averaged a 1.6. Expect this week’s game to rank somewhere in that range. Prediction: 1.8.

The NHL is set for a rare mid-afternoon slot on NBC this Sunday as Washington faces Pittsburgh. The same Sunday last year was “Hockey Day in America” with Bruins-Rangers scoring a 0.7 in the same midday slot. Expect more of the same. Prediction: 0.7.

Last week’s Phoenix Open turned in one of sports’ healthier performances of late with a double-digit increase over last week. Some of that had to do with last year’s unusually low ratings, but perhaps some of it had to do with Jordan Spieth being in contention. Spieth could not close the deal last week on his first win since 2017, but he enters this Sunday with a two-stroke lead. Can that list ratings above last year’s 2.3? In this era, 2.4 seems a touch high for non-major golf. Prediction: 2.2.