First, the results of last week’s predictions:
- College football on ABC, Ohio State/Michigan (11/17). Prediction: 3.9. Final rating: 6.0. Considering that they were ranked #7 and #21 in the BCS at the time of this game, the 6.0 rating for Ohio State/Michigan proves that these two marquee teams can draw an audience based almost solely on name recognition. The 6.0 rating for this game makes it the second-highest rated college football telecast of the season, especially impressive considering the Noon ET start time.
- College football on ABC, regional (11/17). Prediction: 3.5. Final rating: 4.3. Ohio State/Michigan proved to be a nice lead-in for regional coverage on ABC. Still, the 4.3 rating marks a 67% decrease from the game in the comparable timeslot last year — Michigan/Ohio State, when those teams were ranked #1 and #2 in the nation.
- Saturday Night Football on ABC, Oklahoma/Tx Tech (11/17). Prediction: 3.2. Final rating: 3.3. The game that derailed Oklahoma’s national title hopes could not draw much of an audience. The 3.3 rating for Texas Tech’s victory over Oklahoma was a sharp 43% drop from the comparable California/USC game in ’06.
- SEC on CBS, LSU/Mississippi State (11/17). Prediction: 3.0. Final rating: 2.6. The week before blowing their national title hopes against Arkansas, LSU helped CBS to a big boost in ratings. The 2.6 rating for the Tigers’ win over Mississippi State was a 37% increase over the comparable Auburn/Alabama game in 2006.
- MLS Cup on ABC, Revolution/Dynamo (11/18). Prediction: 0.7. Final rating: 0.8. For the fourth straight year, the MLS Cup drew a 0.8 rating. In a landscape where most sports events are seeing declining ratings, MLS is experiencing extended stability. Unfortunately, that stability leaves the league with its biggest event routinely drawing less than 1% of U.S. television households.
- NASCAR on ABC, Ford 400 (11/18). Prediction: 4.0. Final rating: 4.2. NASCAR finished its season with yet another double-digit drop in ratings. The 4.2 for the Ford 400 marks an 11% drop from the 4.7 rating for the same race in 2006. Heading into this season, NASCAR Chairman Brian France blamed declining ratings on lack of promotion by lame duck partner NBC. A new deal with ESPN/ABC, featuring almost incessant promotion by the Worldwide Leader in Sports, did not stop the bleeding. Next season will be crucial for NASCAR.
- Saturday Night Football on ABC, Missouri/Kansas. Prediction: 7.0. Final rating: 6.1. The game of the year in the Big 12 drew the big ratings for ABC. The 6.1 rating for Missouri’s victory over Kansas last Saturday edged the 6.0 for Ohio State/Michigan two weeks ago to become the highest rated college football game of the season. Still, ratings for the game were down by nearly a third, when compared to the Notre Dame/USC game that aired in the same timeslot last year.
- Sunday Night Football on NBC, Eagles/Patriots. Prediction: 9.6. Final rating: 13.4. An undefeated juggernaut in a close game versus a decided underdog proved to be a nice recipe for NBC. The 13.4 rating for Eagles/Patriots makes the game the third-highest rated regular season NFL telecast on NBC since the network returned to airing games in 2006. The 13.4 final rating is a 38% jump over the comparable Eagles/Colts game in ’06.
Ratings for college football games on ABC and CBS last Saturday are currently unavailable.
This week’s predictions:
- ACC Championship Game on ABC, Virginia Tech/Boston College, 1 PM Saturday — The last time Boston College and Virginia Tech met, it was a battle of the #2 and #8 ranked teams in the nation that drew a solid 2.7 national rating on ESPN opposite the World Series. On broadcast TV this time around, and with very little in the way of competition, expect higher ratings. Prediction: 3.5.
- College football on ABC, USC/UCLA, 4:30 PM Saturday — With USC not in the national title hunt, USC/UCLA is not the marquee match-up it was last season. Last year, the game, which featured a stunning upset of USC by UCLA, drew a 7.3 rating. Look for a big drop this time around. Prediction: 4.4.
- Big 12 Championship Game on ABC, Missouri/Oklahoma, 8 PM Saturday — #1 Missouri takes on #9 Oklahoma in the biggest Big 12 title game since Kansas State dispatched of the Sooners in 2003. With a trip to the national title on the line, look for this battle of top ten teams to improve significantly on the 4.2 rating for last year’s Nebraska/Oklahoma match-up. Prediction: 6.8.
- SEC Championship Game on CBS, Tennessee/LSU, 4 PM Saturday — There is not nearly as much intrigue surrounding this year’s SEC Championship Game as there was last year. With LSU not in the national title chase, expect a smaller rating than the 4.5 for last year’s Championship Game. Prediction: 3.8.
- College football on CBS, Army/Navy, 12 PM Saturday — The Army/Navy game gets an early start this year; despite the tradition that goes along with the battle of military academies, do not expect a huge rating. Last year, Army/Navy drew a 2.3 rating. Prediction: 1.9.
- BCS Selection Show on FOX, 8 PM Saturday — Last year’s BCS Selection Show drew a huge rating, thanks to a mammoth NFL lead-in. With Bears/Giants not nearly as tantalizing as Giants/Cowboys was in ’06, do not expect the Selection Show to approach the 8.4 it drew last year. Prediction: 7.0.
- NFL on FOX, Giants/Bears, 4 PM Sunday — A battle of 5-6 and 7-4 teams is not much of a recipe for good ratings, not even if the game features the #1 and #3 markets in the country. Giants/Bears should fall well below the comparable Giants/Cowboys game last year. Prediction: 13.9.
- Sunday Night Football on NBC, Bengals/Steelers, 8 PM Sunday — Steelers/Dolphins was one of the worst NFL games ever, featured a winless Miami squad, and still managed to draw ESPN’s third-biggest Monday Night Football rating of the season. Do not expect NBC to have the same luck with a mediocre Sunday night match-up this week. Prediction: 8.8.
