As alluded to before, the NBA — and Major League Baseball, for that matter — may be in trouble, at least according to Forbes.
The World Series and NBA Finals were at the bottom of the top ten most valuable sporting events, according to Forbes — behind the Daytona 500 (#4) and the Kentucky Derby (#8). While David Stern should not be too surprised, considering the significant fall-off in ratings for the Finals, Bud Selig certainly couldn’t be blamed if he felt some alarm.
It’s one thing for Forbes to put the World Series and the NBA Finals at the bottom. It’s quite another for the ratings to put them there as well. Of the other eight events listed by Forbes, only the World Cup Final and the Kentucky Derby had lower ratings than the World Series and NBA Finals.
So what’s the problem? Major League Baseball and the NBA both get ample television time from sports outlets like ESPN — both sports get their highlights featured virtually every night for six months on the network. Both sports have lucrative, expansive television deals with multiple outlets. And both sports have good attendance (the NBA has set regular season attendance records each of the last two years).
So why has the NBA failed to net double digit ratings in the Finals three out of the last four years? And why has Major League Baseball set new World Series record lows four times this decade (’00, ’02, ’05 and ’06)?
Three reasons come to mind: work stoppages, scandal, and television markets.
Work stoppages.
Both baseball and the NBA have dealt with destructive work stoppages in the past fifteen years, with neither sport able to reverse the downwards ratings trend caused by fan backlash.
Major League Baseball’s 1994 work stoppage caused the cancellation of the World Series and a backlash against the sport that lasted until 1998. Ratings for the 1995 World Series, which was spread across two networks, were exceptional by today’s standards but still the fourth worst ratings ever for the World Series at the time (19.5). Ratings have only gone down since then, bottoming out in 2006.
The NBA lockout coincided with the retirement of Michael Jordan, meaning that the staggering ratings drop from from 1998 to 1999 could be attributed to either event. The 1998 NBA Finals averaged a record high 18.7 rating, and Game 6 of the series was the highest rated NBA game ever (22.3/38). The 1999 Finals plummeted to an 11.3 average rating, which was then the lowest since 1981.
Scandal.
To a lesser extent, scandal plays a role as well; in the past several years, baseball has dealt with an almost ubiquitous steroids scandal which has caused several of the game’s most visible players to be placed under scrutiny. Several legends of the game were called before Congress, and Mark McGwire, Barry Bonds and Rafael Palmiero have all become pariahs for their alleged steroids use.
While baseball has dealt with a steroids scandal, the NBA has faced increased criticism of its players, mainly spurred by a catastrophic brawl between players on the Indiana Pacers and fans in Detroit. The brawl exacerbated negative media perception of the league, with several analysts referring to players as thugs and gang members — most notably Gary Thorne of ESPN, who referred to the league as the most “expensive” and “dangerous” gang in the country. Since then, players have routinely had their characters assassinated collectively by the media.
Television markets.
While not every World Series or NBA Finals can involve the Dodgers playing the Yankees or the Lakers playing the Knicks, both Major League Baseball and the NBA have had bad luck this decade when it comes to the teams vying for their respective titles.
The 2000 and 2002 World Series were essentially regional events. The Yankees and Mets met in an all-New York matchup in 2000, and the Angels and Giants met in an all-California series in 2002. Meanwhile, the 2005 and 2006 World Series involved teams on neither coast (Chicago and Houston, St. Louis and Detroit). All four of those World Series set record lows in ratings and/or viewership.
While the large-market Los Angeles Lakers won three straight NBA titles (’00, ’01’, ’02), the small-market San Antonio Spurs have had equal success since 1999, winning three very low rated NBA Finals. In addition to the aforementioned 1999 NBA Finals, the Spurs were involved in the lowest rated NBA Finals ever (6.5), when they played the small-market New Jersey Nets in 2003. In 2005, the Spurs played the Detroit Pistons in the second-lowest rated NBA Finals since 1981 (8.2) — that year, had the series not gone to a Game 7, it would have averaged a 7.6 rating. In 2006, expectations were that the NBA Finals would draw higher ratings due to the presence of the larger-market, star-studded Miami Heat and Dallas Mavericks, but that series disappointed with a 8.5 rating.
From 1980 to 2002, only two NBA Finals did not involve Los Angeles, Boston, Chicago or New York, the #2, #7, #3 and #1 television markets, respectively (1990 and 1995). Since then, only one NBA Finals has involved one of those cities (2004, the Lakers).
Conclusion.
There are varying reasons for the decline of Major League Baseball and the NBA. Some could blame FOX and ABC for their amateurish television coverage. Some of Phil Mushnick’s opinion could blame late start times for both sports (some NBA Finals games in 2005 did not tip off until nearly 9:30). And others could rightfully point out the fact that ratings are down across the board for every sport outside of the NFL, and the low ratings are simply the continuation of a general downward trend.
But no matter the reason, neither the World Series nor the NBA Finals has the stature it did even five years ago. In 2001, the NBA Finals averaged a 12.1 rating, while the World Series drew a 15.7. Only the 2004 World Series (the famous run of the Red Sox) has achieved a rating higher since then (15.8).
How low will ratings go? The 2006 NBA Finals actually showed improvement from the previous year, despite being the third lowest rated Finals of the previous twenty-five years, and the 2006 World Series still managed to cling to a double-digit rating (mainly due to the strong performance of Game 2, which drew an 11.6 rating). Still, barring a rapid improvement for the Lakers or Knicks, and barring a prolonged playoff run for the Yankees, Red Sox or Mets, the future does not look bright for either event.
