First, the results of last week’s predictions:
- NBA on ABC, Lakers at Suns. Prediction: 2.5. Final rating: 1.9. The final rating plummets from the overnight, which was 2.4. Evidently, middle America wasn’t quite attracted to Steve Nash and Kobe Bryant. The game is the lowest rated for a national Lakers telecast since 1991, though last year’s regional tilt against LeBron James and the Cavaliers drew a 1.7 rating against NCAA Tournament coverage.
- NCAA on CBS, Duke at UNC. Prediction: 3.0. Final rating: 3.0. The final rating is exactly the same as the overnight, a rare occurrence. A decent rating, especially considering that no non-Christmas regular season NBA game has drawn a 3.0 rating on a Sunday afternoon since Lakers/Cavs in 2004.
- Arena Football League on ABC. Prediction: 0.9. Final rating: 1.0. Slightly better than what I predicted, and .3 rating points higher than last year’s Arena Bowl.
- NHL on NBC, Avs at Red Wings. Prediction: 0.8. Final rating: 1.2. The NHL may not be a huge draw, but the Game of the Week on NBC was only .7 rating points behind Lakers/Suns on ABC, and outdrew the competing AFL.
NASCAR Busch Series ratings are not available currently.
This week’s predictions:
- NBA on ABC: Nuggets at Kings, 3:30 PM, Sunday — If the Lakers and Suns only drew a 1.9 rating, the disappointing Denver Nuggets and anonymous Sacramento Kings won’t fare much better. The record low rating for an NBA game on network television is 1.1, achieved in back to back weeks in 2004 (Dallas at New Jersey and Dallas at Orlando). After this week, the Mavs, Nets and Magic will be off the hook. Prediction: 0.9.
- NBA on ESPN: Mavericks at Lakers, 9:00 PM, Sunday — Despite being on cable, this game is certain to do better than the earlier game on ABC. The Mavs have won sixteen straight, and the Lakers (despite last week’s performance) are still a decent draw. With the NCAA “Bracketology” lead-in, expect this game to have one of the highest regular season cable ratings of the season. Prediction: 1.8.
- NASCAR on FOX: UAW-DaimerChrysler 400, 4:00 PM, Sunday — A major sport hits Las Vegas, but Jason Whitlock can breathe easy as there won’t be nearly as many black people there. Last year’s race from Vegas drew a 6.2 rating, down from the 6.4 in 2005. Considering the downward trend of NASCAR on TV, expect this race to get a lower, but still decent, rating. Prediction: 5.9.
- ACC Championship Game on ESPN, 1:00 PM, Sunday — Last year’s game drew a 1.9 rating, and without Duke, one would expect the numbers to drop. That being said, if UNC advances to the final, there should be no problem. No matter what, the numbers will still easily top the competing NHL game on NBC. Prediction: 1.9.
- NHL on NBC, Bruins/Red Wings or Hurricanes/Rangers, 12:30 PM, Sunday — With games featuring the #8, #9 and #12 teams in the Eastern Conference, don’t look for big numbers. Prediction: 1.0.
