Major League Baseball ratings have been dwindling in recent years. The last two World Series have each set record lows in television ratings, and only one series since 2004 has gone seven games (last year’s relatively uninspiring NLCS between the Cardinals and Mets).
Despite the fact that ratings are trending down, and despite coming off of a September where four out of five Saturday telecasts on FOX drew less than a 2.0 rating, MLB can look towards the 2007 postseason with high expectations.
Big markets.
Somewhere, David Stern is jealous. While the NBA has had to deal with San Antonio, Utah, Cleveland and Detroit making its version of the League Championship Series, Major League Baseball has been blessed with possibly its strongest line-up of big markets since the current playoff format went into effect twelve years ago.
Teams from New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Philadelphia and Boston have made the playoffs — accounting for five out of the top seven television markets in the country. There is every possibility that the LCS could feature Yankees/Red Sox and Phillies/Cubs, which could vault MLB into NFL territory.
If worst comes to worst for Major League Baseball, the LCS would feature Angels/Indians and Rockies or Padres/Diamondbacks, which would be disastrous.
More likely, MLB will hit the jackpot, or at least come close. Should the Yankees advance, MLB is guaranteed big ratings in the ALCS — no matter what happens between Boston and Los Angeles. A series featuring the Yankees versus their fiercest rival (the Red Sox) or a team from the #2 television market in the U.S. (the Angels), could easily give FOX a double-digit average rating for its LCS coverage.
While ratings on TBS could tank if the Rockies or Padres play the Diamondbacks in the NLCS, the prospect of Phillies/Cubs has to have executives at Turner salivating. Two success-starved teams from the #3 and #4 television markets in the U.S. going at it could launch ratings even past cable behemoth Monday Night Football.
Yankees/Red Sox.
As mentioned before, the Yankees and Red Sox could meet in the ALCS. The last two times these teams met in the playoffs, ratings were astronomical. The 2003 seven game battle drew a 10.7 average rating on FOX, with a 17.1 for Game 7, while the 2004 series did even better — drawing an 11.7 average, with a 19.1 for Game 7.
While baseball as a whole may be declining in television popularity, the Yankees and Red Sox are almost part of a different league. Through last week, ratings for Yankees-Red Sox games on FOX this season were 36% higher than the ratings for the other games FOX televised.
While the Yankees and Red Sox may be unstoppable together, at least one of the teams can hold its own in the ratings individually. Yankees telecasts on FOX averaged a 2.7 rating this year, a 42% increase over the 1.9 average for games on FOX that did not involve the team. Even if the Red Sox are eliminated by the Angels, the mere presence of the Yankees should account for a significant increase from the 5.3 average for last season’s four-game ALCS.
Cable.
More than the big markets and the presence of the Yankees and Red Sox, the fact that the bulk of playoff games are airing on cable should help MLB this year.
Because fewer households have access to cable television than have access to broadcast, ratings declines for events moving from broadcast to cable are usually discounted. Meaning that ratings for the Division Series and NLCS could fall 10-15% from last year and still be considered very good.
In fact, because the threshold for good ratings is so much lower on cable than it is on broadcast, there is almost no way that TBS can draw disappointing numbers in its inaugural year of playoff coverage. As an example, look to Monday Night Football. Last year, the franchise averaged a record-low 8.1 national rating. However, because the games aired on cable, that 8.1 was superb and far from a disappointment.
With that in mind, it would take startlingly low numbers for TBS’ ratings to look anything but solid.
Conclusion.
Major League Baseball is looking at potentially its strongest postseason since 2003, when the Yankees, Red Sox and Cubs helped FOX and ESPN to huge ratings. This could be a year where Major League Baseball can create some separation from the NBA and NASCAR, both of which have seen disappointing ratings recently.
Even if baseball is cursed with smaller markets teams like Cleveland, San Diego, Colorado or Arizona making the LCS, ratings should still look respectable — at least on TBS. In the first year of a new seven year deal, there are no ratings to compare TBS’ numbers to, meaning it will take shockingly low numbers for the ratings on cable to be a disappointment.
