First, the results of last week’s predictions:
- NHL on NBC, Penguins/Sabres (1/1). Prediction: 2.0. Final rating: 2.2. The 2.2 rating for the NHL Winter Classic is the highest for any NHL regular season telecast since Wayne Gretzky‘s final game drew the same rating in 1999. The game drew a 1.8 rating among men 18-49, 20% higher than the competing Gator Bowl telecast on CBS.
- Capital One Bowl on ABC, Michigan/Florida (1/1). Prediction 5.1. Final rating: 9.1. The 9.1 rating for the Capital One Bowl was not only the highest rating for that event since at least 2003, but also was higher than the rating for three of the five BCS bowls.
- Rose Bowl on ABC, Illinois/USC (1/1). Prediction: 11.9. Final rating: 11.1. The 11.1 rating for USC/Illinois marks a 20% drop from the 13.9 USC/Michigan drew in ’07. The game was the lowest rated Rose Bowl of the BCS era.
- Orange Bowl on FOX, Kansas/VT (1/3). Prediction: 8.0. Final rating: 7.4. The three mid-week BCS games on FOX finished #13, #16 and #18 for the week. The Orange Bowl in particular fell behind such fare as American Gladiators, Amazing Race 12 and Deal or No Deal in total viewers.
- NFL Playoffs on NBC, Washington/Seahawks. Prediction: 15.1. Final rating: 14.0. Washington was poised to become a sentimental favorite, after the murder of safety Sean Taylor. That may have contributed to the double digit jump in ratings for their Wild Card game against the Seattle Seahawks; the 14.0 for Washington’s loss marks an 11% increase from the 12.6 for Chiefs/Colts in ’07.
- NFL Playoffs on NBC, Jaguars/Steelers. Prediction: 15.9. Final rating: 15.0. The Jaguars and Steelers may have played great football, but neither team has the Q rating of the Dallas Cowboys. The 15.0 rating for the Jaguars close victory over Pittsburgh marks a 9% drop from the 16.4 rating Cowboys/Seahawks drew in the same timeslot last year.
- NFL Playoffs on FOX, Giants/Buccaneers. Prediction: 16.0. Final rating: 15.1. The 15.1 for Giants/Buccaneers was off 13% from the comparable Jets/Patriots game in ’07, which aired on CBS.
- NFL Playoffs on CBS, Titans/Chargers. Prediction: 15.8. Final rating: 16.7. Titans/Chargers drew a huge rating, but in the context of the NFL, the game was not much of a draw. The 16.7 rating for the Chargers’ victory marks an 8% decrease from the Giants/Eagles game in the same timeslot last year; additionally, the 16.7 rating is the lowest for a Wild Card game in that timeslot since 2004.
- BCS National Championship Game on FOX, LSU/Ohio State. Prediction: 15.6. Final rating: 14.4. In a down year for the BCS, the National Championship Game saw its lowest rating in three years. The 14.4 for LSU’s victory over Ohio State marks a 17% decline from the 17.4 for Florida/Ohio State in ’07. The five BCS averaged a 9.5 rating this year, down 15% from an 11.2 in ’07.
This week’s predictions:
- NFL Playoffs on FOX, Seahawks/Packers, 4:30 PM Saturday — FOX has to be salivating at the prospect of Brett Favre and the Packers playing either the Giants or Cowboys in the NFC Championship game. First, the Packers have to go through the Seahawks, in a game that should keep pace with the comparable telecast last year, Colts/Ravens, which drew a 17.6. Prediction: 16.9.
- NFL Playoffs on CBS, Jaguars/Patriots, 8 PM Saturday — The New England Patriots have been ratings gold nearly every week. The team has played in each of the four highest rated, most watched NFL regular season games in the past decade. Look for Pats/Jaguars to draw a rating far higher than the 16.3 Eagles/Saints put up last year. Prediction: 23.3.
- NFL Playoffs on CBS, Chargers/Colts, 1 PM Sunday — The Colts and Chargers lack the storylines and intrigue of the Packers, Patriots, Giants and Cowboys. Look for their battle to be the lowest rated of the weekend. Prediction: 15.6.
- NFL Playoffs on FOX, Giants/Cowboys, 4:30 PM Saturday — The Giants and Cowboys are always a potent ratings draw. In 2006, a regular season game between the two drew a 17.8 rating on FOX. With the Giants hailing from the #1 television market in the country and the Cowboys having mainstream stars Tony Romo and Terrell Owens, this game could draw a huge rating on Sunday. Prediction: 24.7.
- College basketball on CBS, regional, 4:30 PM Sunday — College basketball ratings are usually tiny this early in the season. With an NFL lead-in, however, look for a decent audience for CBS on Sunday. Prediction: 1.8.
