First, the results of last week’s predictions:
- NFL on FOX, Pro Bowl. Prediction: 6.0. Final rating: 6.3. For the first time in five years, the Pro Bowl aired on a Sunday evening on broadcast television. The result was the best rating for the event since 2000. The 6.3 final rating for the Pro Bowl was a 37% increase from a 4.6 last year, when the event aired on a Saturday night.
- NBA on ABC, Spurs/Celtics. Prediction: 2.3. Final rating: 2.3. Without Kevin Garnett, this potential NBA Finals preview lost some of its luster. However, the fact that the game was close helped ABC to a 21% jump in ratings — and the best 1:00 PM rating for a regular season NBA game in three years.
- NBA on ABC, Lakers/Heat. Prediction: 2.0. Final rating: 2.6. Despite the Heat having a 9-39 record at tip-off, and despite Shaquille O’Neal already long gone to Phoenix, Lakers/Heat put up a solid number on Sunday afternoon. The 2.6 rating for the Lakers’ relatively easy win marks a mere 4% decline from the comparable game last year, Lakers/Cavaliers.
- NHL on NBC, Ducks/Red Wings. Prediction: 1.2. Final rating: 0.8. The NHL on NBC may be in trouble. For the third straight game, NBC’s Game of the Week drew a 0.8. Excluding the Winter Classic, ratings for the NHL on NBC are down 20% from the same point last year. Including the Winter Classic — which drew a 2.2 rating — NBC is averaging a 1.2 rating, up 20%.
- NASCAR on FOX, Budweiser Shootout. Prediction: 5.5. Final rating: 5.1. Without the Pro Bowl to compete with, NASCAR had Saturday night all to itself. The 5.1 for the Budweiser Shootout marks a 6% increase from last year, and ratings peaked at a 6.1/11 from 10:00-10:10 PM ET, when Dale Earnhardt Jr. won the event.
This week’s predictions:
- NASCAR on FOX, Daytona 500, 2 PM Sunday — With ratings falling precipitously during the back half of last season, and with ratings declining overall each of the past two years, NASCAR is looking for the numbers to head in the right direction. The Daytona 500 could either help spark a NASCAR ratings renaissance or continue an ongoing downward trend. Last year, the event drew a 10.1, the lowest in three years. Prediction: 11.4.
- NBA All Star Game on TNT, 8 PM Sunday — Ratings for the NBA All Star Game have fallen every year since since 2002. The event has shed 49% of its audience since ’02, with much of that owing to a switch from network (NBC) to cable (TNT). This year could finally stem that downward spiral, as the recently completed writer’s strike has left the broadcast networks without their usual programming. Last year, the game drew a 4.2 national rating. Prediction: 4.6.
- NBA All Star Saturday Night on TNT, 8 PM Saturday — Last year, All Star Saturday night was the most watched ever, drawing a 3.1 national rating. Much of the intrigue surrounding last year’s events surrounded the heavily hyped race between TNT analyst Charles Barkley and NBA referee Dick Bavetta. Without that sideshow, look for the numbers to drop. Prediction: 2.9.
- NHL on NBC, Red Wings/Stars, 3:30 PM Sunday — One would imagine that a battle of the two best records in the Western Conference would draw casual fans. However, neither the Red Wings nor the Stars have the mainstream star power necessary to give NBC a major boost. That being said, NBC would be satisfied having the game simply draw better than the 0.8 each of the past three games have drawn. Prediction: 0.9.
