First, the results of last week’s predictions:
- NASCAR on FOX, Daytona 500. Prediction: 11.4. Final rating: 10.2. Ratings for the Daytona 500 held steady. The 10.2 final rating for the race marks a 1% increase from last year.
- NBA All Star Game on TNT. Prediction: 4.6. Final rating: 3.8. Ratings for the NBA All Star Game fell to an all time record low. The 3.8 final rating for the game last Sunday marks a 9% decline from ’07, and the first time ever the All Star Game drew less than a 4.0 national rating.
- NBA All Star Saturday Night on TNT. Prediction: 2.9. Final rating: 3.1. While the All Star Game fell to a record low, All Star Saturday Night rose to a record high. The event drew 5.2 million viewers, making it the most watched All Star Saturday Night in TNT’s 23 year history airing the event, and the 3.1 national rating tied last year’s record.
- NHL on NBC, Red Wings/Stars. Prediction: 0.9. Final rating: 0.7. Since the Winter Classic on New Year’s Day, no NHL on NBC telecast has drawn even a 1.0 rating. In the past four games, NBC has drawn a 0.8 three times, before slumping to a season low of 0.7 for last week’s battle of the top two teams in the Western Conference. The 0.7 for Red Wings/Stars was off 22% from last year, bringing the overall season average of the NHL on NBC down to a 1.1. Excluding the Winter Classic, NBC is averaging a 0.8 rating for four NHL telecasts, down 20% from a 1.0 through the same period last year.
- PGA Tour on CBS, Buick Invitational (1/27). Prediction: 5.5. Final rating: 4.2. Sometimes, winning becomes boring. This may be going back a bit, but the 4.2 for the final round of the Buick Invitational a month ago marked a 21% drop from the 5.3 the event drew in ’07. Each of the past three years, Tiger Woods has won the Buick, and ratings have dropped with each victory.
This week’s predictions:
- NBA on ABC, Pistons at Suns, 2:30 PM Sunday — A few weeks ago, this match-up looked like a pairing of stale one-time contenders. Now, after the trade of Shaquille O’Neal to Phoenix, the Suns are a hot property. Shaq’s debut Wednesday night against the Lakers drew a 2.5 national rating, stellar for cable. ABC is hoping some of that momentum will carry into a potential NBA Finals preview on Sunday. Prediction: 2.3.
- College basketball on ESPN, Tennessee at Memphis, 8 PM Saturday — An unlikely #1 versus #2 battle in college basketball could help ESPN to its second big basketball audience of the week. While the numbers for Tennessee/Memphis may not quite match the 1.8 national rating Duke/UNC drew a few weeks ago, the game should put up a decent number. Prediction: 1.7.
- NASCAR on FOX, Auto Club 500, 3:30 PM Sunday — The second race of the NASCAR season tends to fly under the radar, but always puts up stellar numbers. Look for this race to draw better ratings than the Pro Bowl, the NBA Finals, and several major golf tournaments. Prediction: 6.5.
- PGA Tour on NBC, WGC Accenture Match Play Championships, Championship Match, 2 PM Sunday — Ratings for the championship match of the Accenture Match Play Championships have plummeted from a 5.1 and 4.8 in 2003 and 2004, to a 2.0, 2.4, and 2.1 in the past three years. What is the culprit for the drop in ratings? Woods won in ’03 and ’04, and has not even participated in the championship match each of the past three years. Prediction: 4.9 (if Woods is playing), 2.3 (if Woods is not).
